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Why Kroger Stock Could Keep Climbing Even After Record Highs
Submitted by Thomas Hughes. Article Posted: 3/6/2026.
Key Points
- Kroger is on track to sustain its capital return, including aggressive share buybacks and annual dividend increases.
- Growth is slight but sustainable, compounded by cash flow strength and the potential for 2026 to be cautious.
- Analysts and institutions support this stock, but headwinds may cap gains until later in the year.
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Kroger's (NYSE: KR) uptrend appears set to continue as its high-quality operations expand, generating ample free cash flow and returning capital to investors. In 2025 the company added an accelerated share repurchase (ASR) on top of a standard $2 billion authorization, which trimmed the share count by an average of more than 8.5% for the year. That's significant for shareholders.
The pace of buybacks will slow in fiscal 2026 but should remain robust. The slowdown mainly reflects a one-time cash buildup ahead of an unsuccessful buyout attempt. Although the bid failed, the attempt left the business cash-rich.
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In 2000, I warned Barron's that a popular dot-com stock was headed for trouble. It dropped 90%. Now I'm making the opposite call on that same company: buy it now. This stock has become the lifeblood of AI data centers, yet almost no one has caught the story. While the media focuses on AI chip wars, they've missed this company's essential role in building out data centers. Their hardware is so critical that a single building uses enough of it to stretch around the world eight times. If you own Nvidia, you might want to pivot. If you missed Nvidia, this is your second chance at the AI data center buildout happening worldwide.
See the under-the-radar play fueling AI data centersThe takeaway for 2026 is that Kroger's balance sheet is as healthy as ever—well-capitalized, and cash flows indicate the reduced buyback pace is financially sustainable.
At $2 billion, the current authorization represents only about 70% of guidance for free cash flow, leaving ample cash available for dividends.
As of early March, the $2 billion authorization equals roughly 4.65% of market cap, and buybacks are likely to continue in subsequent years. Meanwhile, the dividend remains meaningful, yielding about 2% with shares near record highs and expected to grow annually. Corporate growth and ongoing buybacks both support the distribution-growth outlook.
By aggressively reducing the share count, Kroger can deliver low single-digit per-share dividend increases without raising the total cash paid. In this environment, Kroger can sustain annual distribution increases—and it has already done so for 20 years. The company is on track to be included in the Dividend Aristocrats by the early next decade and has the capacity to reach Dividend King status over time.
Kroger: Mixed Results and Guidance Offset by Margin Strength and Capital Return
Kroger reported a solid quarter, with revenue up 1.3% despite the drag from lower fuel prices. The top line missed consensus by a narrow margin, briefly pressuring the stock, but investors zeroed in on the internals: 2.1% ex-fuel growth, a 2.4% comp, 20% eCommerce growth and notable margin strength.
The company widened gross margin due to several quality-related factors, offset in part by higher selling, general and administrative (SG&A) expenses. Operating margins expanded slightly, driving accelerated bottom-line growth that was further amplified by buybacks. Adjusted earnings per share of $1.28 beat consensus by eight cents and rose more than 12% year over year, outpacing revenue growth.
Looking ahead, guidance points to more of the same in 2026: revenue slightly below consensus but offset by margin strength. The company's earnings guidance modestly exceeded consensus and may be conservative.
Analyst Response Is Mixed: Cautious Near-Term Versus Long-Term Outlook
Analysts responded with mixed reactions to Kroger's release. While no widespread estimate revisions appeared in the hours after the report, many commentaries highlighted the conservative tone of guidance, which has tempered near-term sentiment.
One analyst downgraded the stock and cut the price target in late February to $68, well below the broad consensus. As it stands, the consensus price target offers only marginal upside from early March highs and could limit near-term gains. Institutions are another headwind, owning roughly 80% of the shares and selling on balance in early Q1 2026.
Price action is optimistic: support has formed at critical levels that converge with the 150- and 30-day exponential moving averages (EMAs), a long-term uptrend line and prior highs. That alignment is a potentially strong signal that puts KR on track to retest all-time highs. Hitting new highs may require a more potent catalyst, but if institutions shift back into accumulation, a move to new highs is possible before midyear.
In that scenario, a shifting market tide and a move to new highs could push the stock toward the $90 level or higher. Growth may be modest, but it looks sustainable; the stock trades at about 12x earnings and appears attractively valued relative to long-term forecasts. The 2035 consensus assumes roughly a 7.6x price-to-earnings multiple, which implies the potential for as much as 100% upside for investors with the patience to buy and hold.
Opendoor Pops After Earnings, But the Big Question Hasn't Changed
Submitted by Chris Markoch. Article Posted: 2/22/2026.
Key Points
- Opendoor beat revenue expectations but posted a larger-than-expected loss, highlighting ongoing profitability challenges.
- The company’s “Opendoor 2.0” strategy focuses on faster inventory turns, AI-driven pricing, and breakeven adjusted net income by 2026.
- Institutional sentiment and sector rotation will likely determine whether OPEN stock can sustain momentum.
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Stock analysis is full of sports metaphors — and with good reason: they fit. That's especially true for Opendoor Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ: OPEN).
The company reported its Q4 2025 earnings after the market closed, and the results were mixed. Still, investors pushed OPEN stock up 14% in after-hours trading.
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In 2000, I warned Barron's that a popular dot-com stock was headed for trouble. It dropped 90%. Now I'm making the opposite call on that same company: buy it now. This stock has become the lifeblood of AI data centers, yet almost no one has caught the story. While the media focuses on AI chip wars, they've missed this company's essential role in building out data centers. Their hardware is so critical that a single building uses enough of it to stretch around the world eight times. If you own Nvidia, you might want to pivot. If you missed Nvidia, this is your second chance at the AI data center buildout happening worldwide.
See the under-the-radar play fueling AI data centersThe earnings presentation — branded as an "Open House" — carried the theme: Opendoor 2.0 Does What It Said It Would Do — Delivering Acquisition Growth, Faster Inventory Turns, and Stronger Cohorts.
It outlined the company's progress on a four-step plan to transform the business, focused on three goals:
- To reach breakeven Adjusted Net Income by the end of 2026 on a 12-month go-forward basis
- To drive positive unit economics while increasing transaction velocity
- To transition to direct-to-consumer relationships and expand its product suite
The report was encouraging, but "progress" is a relative term. Opendoor remains unprofitable and still generates relatively little revenue.
Put another way: this felt like surviving the first quarter of a four-quarter game. You can't win the game in the first quarter, but you can lose it. They haven't lost — yet — but what does winning look like?
Mixed Earnings Won't Move the Needle Much
On the top line, Opendoor reported revenue of $736 million, beating expectations of $591.75 million. However, adjusted earnings per share (EPS) came in worse than expected: a loss of $1.26 versus an anticipated loss of $0.08.
Both revenue and earnings were sharply lower year over year. As a single-quarter data point that isn't necessarily devastating — the company has refreshed its C-suite and needs time to execute its turnaround — and bulls will note the YOY revenue shortfall was smaller than feared.
Call that a point for Opendoor.
The Business Model Has a Proven Achilles Heel
Opendoor went public in 2020 during the iBuyer craze. Its core value proposition is liquidity and convenience: instant cash offers for homeowners who want to sell quickly, avoiding listings, showings and uncertain timelines. Growth depends on reselling those homes quickly — the faster the turnover, the better the economics.
That engine has always relied on algorithmic pricing to decide what to pay sellers, how to price for resale, and which markets to operate in. They didn't necessarily use advanced AI at the outset, but AI is now part of the turnaround strategy to improve efficiency.
The problem with models — AI or otherwise — is that outputs are only as good as the data they're trained on. If market conditions change faster than the model adapts, the company can be left holding depreciating inventory.
That's what happened in 2022. Rising interest rates and a rapidly cooling housing market left Opendoor with inventory purchased at much higher prices, forcing large losses and sending the stock from over $12 early that year to below $1 by year-end.
Retail investors' refrain that "this time it's different" is dangerous. Interest rates would likely need to fall substantially to meaningfully revive the housing market, and recent Fed minutes suggest that's not a near-term certainty.
The takeaway for investors is caution: AI can help, but it can't change fundamental market dynamics. Opendoor survived a brutal adjustment, but what equilibrium looks like remains unclear.
That uncertainty is why they keep playing — and these earnings give Opendoor the runway to continue doing so.
How Should Retail Investors View OPEN Stock?
To answer that, note the more than 200% gain over the past 12 months was supported by heavy institutional buying in the third and fourth quarters of last year.
However, that momentum appeared to fade toward year-end. Short interest rose, signaling that larger investors viewed the stock as overextended. That dynamic continued into 2026, and OPEN was down just over 20% before the earnings report.
Put simply, OPEN will likely need renewed institutional buying to sustain a meaningful rally. With signs of a broader rotation away from tech stocks, there may be less appetite for a name that delivered a solid but not spectacular quarter.
Opendoor remains a speculative investment: a company still proving its model at scale. There's time on the clock, but investors should be prepared to show patience and conviction if they choose to play along.
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