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Tuesday, February 24, 2026
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A National Reckoning Tonight at 7:30 p.m.
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Where to invest $1,000 right now
Dear Reader,
If I handed you a thousand dollars right now...
Would you buy a gold? Hold cash? Pay down debt?
I'm Marc Chaikin. I've spent 50 years on Wall Street, built indicators that appear in every Bloomberg terminal in the world, and created a system tracking exactly where the biggest banks, hedge funds, and institutions are moving their money ... before it makes headlines.
Right now, that system is showing me something I can't ignore.
I can see the Smart Money (what we on Wall Street call insiders and institutions) moving OUT of many popular technology and AI stocks... and into the kind of companies I bet you'd least expect.
I've seen this pattern before.
And it rarely ends well for people left holding the wrong stocks.
In fact, my system switched its rating on AI darling, Oracle (ORCLE), from BULLISH to NEUTRAL, on October 10th.
Since then, the stock has plummeted as much as 53%.
Now I'm predicting that we could see this happen again and again with popular technology stocks in the weeks ahead.
I'm not the only one seeing this, by the way.
Jon Najarian... 25-year floor trader, CNBC regular, and one of the most respected names in options trading...looked at the same data and said:
"Marc, we've got to tell this story."
So that's what we're doing.
We've teamed up to show you exactly where the Smart Money is moving right now... and what to do before the rest of the market catches on.
To get the full details on what they're selling and what they are buying, click here.
Be well,
Marc Chaikin
Founder, Chaikin Analytics
Shedding Light on Aeluma's Stock Price Outlook
Author: Thomas Hughes. Publication Date: 2/10/2026.
Key Points
- Aeluma is well-positioned to disrupt the optical semiconductor market.
- Its photonic, compound semiconductors and manufacturing processes have applications across industries.
- Analysts and institutions are optimistic, supporting and leading the market in early 2026.
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Aeluma's (NASDAQ: ALMU) stock price outlook is bright—largely a matter of execution and timing. The company's technology is critical to AI advancement and potentially disruptive across industries. It focuses on photonics (optical data transmission required for high-performance AI applications), compound semiconductors (critical for high-power, high-performance semiconductor applications, including AI), and related manufacturing techniques.
Its advanced photonic devices, built on larger-than-standard wafers using compound semiconductor technology, offer enhanced performance at lower cost and are moving toward commercial availability.
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Aeluma's 2026 narrative centers on a strategic shift toward production readiness. The company is focused on securing production capacity in preparation for a commercial ramp. While some revenue is being recognized now, commercial production isn't expected to generate significant revenue until 2029.
As it stands, revenue is expected to accelerate sharply through the decade, exceeding 300% in fiscal 2029 to about $150 million. Between now and then, analysts forecast roughly 18% growth to $5.25 million in fiscal 2026 and nearly 70% growth to about $9.3 million in fiscal 2027.
Optimism: Aeluma Market Ripe for Rebound
Institutional activity signals optimism. Institutions own about 25% of the stock and have bought on balance each quarter since the IPO. Overall activity is skewed heavily to buys—about $65 bought for every $1 sold—providing a solid support base. Technical factors suggest a hard bottom near $13.75, a potential launchpad for a rebound when a catalyst appears.
Two of the three analysts tracked by MarketBeat covering ALMU rate it a Buy, with upside potential of more than 70% relative to its critical early-2026 support target. Key catalysts for 2026 include advancing manufacturing capacity and securing defense contracts. The company is pursuing a domestic, DoD-compliant supply chain to enter the lucrative defense contract arena.
Contract wins would not only improve revenue visibility and profit forecasts but also validate the technology and bolster market confidence, positioning the company for increased business in subsequent quarters.
Insider Selling, Short Interest, and Dilution Risk
A notable investor risk is insider selling by Mark N. Tompkins. Mr. Tompkins is an insider and early angel investor with millions of dollars of exposure and has been selling shares since the IPO. He owns more than 10% of the company, and his sales have been a meaningful headwind in early 2026. Continued selling could cap upside.
Short sellers add another risk. Short interest was roughly 10% as of late January and trending higher, which is a red flag. Given the company's low-revenue/no-earnings profile, shorts may sell into any rallies, pressuring price action.
A capital raise in early 2025 increased the share count and capped near-term gains, contributing to the current valuation and creating what some see as a compelling opportunity in 2026.
Balance Sheet Strength Helps Offset Dilution Concerns
Aeluma's prior capital raise did increase the share count by roughly 30%, but it also strengthened the balance sheet. At the end of fiscal Q1 (FQ1) 2026, the company reported more than $38 million in cash and equivalents—enough to fund several years of operations at the then-current burn rate—with no debt and minimal liabilities. While dilution risk remains, it appears limited in the near term and is partially offset by the longer-term growth outlook.
Aeluma Nears Price Floor Ahead of February Earnings Report
Aeluma is trading within a range and is under pressure heading into its FQ2 report. Price action remains above a critical support level, and a bullish catalyst is expected. The FQ2 release will likely include updates on capacity expansion and contract progress—news that could drive the market higher. If those updates disappoint, the stock could fall to new lows; in that scenario, ALMU might retreat as far as $12 before finding the next support level, and that level is not guaranteed to hold.
Monolithic Power Systems Is Surging—Has Valuation Caught Up?
Author: Leo Miller. Publication Date: 2/10/2026.
Key Points
- While other top chip stocks have lagged over recent months, Monolithic Power Systems continues to come through for investors.
- The company is now firing on all cylinders, having seen strong growth across all end markets last quarter.
- However, when it comes to achieving further upside, what is the outlook for MPWR shares?
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Over the past three months, some of the biggest names in the semiconductor industry have stalled. NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA) is up just 1% over that span, Broadcom (NASDAQ: AVGO) is down 1%, and Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ: AMD) has fallen more than 7%.
That's not the case for the supercharged chip stock Monolithic Power Systems (NASDAQ: MPWR). The shares have returned about 26% over the past three months and roughly 69% over the past 52 weeks.
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Monolithic posted its latest financial results on Feb. 5, which largely validated the stock's recent rally.
After such a strong run, is there still a meaningful opportunity in MPWR shares going forward?
MPWR Gets a Lift After Rock-Solid Earnings Report
In Q4 2025, Monolithic reported revenue of $751 million, up 21% year over year, comfortably above consensus of roughly $742 million (about 19% growth). Adjusted earnings per share rose 17% to $4.79, beating estimates of $4.74 (16% growth).
The company's full-year results were notable: revenue grew more than 26% — its fastest pace since 2022 — and operating margin expanded 60 basis points to 35.2%. Sales in five of the company's six end markets increased by 25% or more; enterprise data was the lone exception, with sales down 2%. By Q4, every end market was posting at least 15% year-over-year growth.
In 2025, three end markets each accounted for at least 20% of total revenue, highlighting Monolithic's diversified customer base. The market rewarded the results: shares rose 6.4% the trading day after the Feb. 5 release.
Monolithic Raises Data Center Forecasts, Sends 800 VDC Samples
Looking ahead, Monolithic expects revenue growth of more than 22% in Q1 2026 based on the midpoint of its guidance — well above consensus, which had projected roughly 16% growth. The company reported a book-to-bill ratio that was "well in excess of one" last quarter.
That suggests Monolithic received more orders than it shipped, and its backlog now extends into Q3 2026. The enterprise data segment, which includes data-center sales, is especially strong: Monolithic raised its 2026 sales growth outlook for that market from a 30–40% range to a floor of 50%.
Further out, Monolithic sees a large opportunity in 800-volt direct-current (800 VDC) data-center architecture — an emerging power-delivery approach that NVIDIA is championing. Monolithic says it was the first company to send product samples as it competes for 800 VDC business. Revenue from that initiative, however, likely won't materialize until late 2027 or beyond. Still, the update signals the company's technical readiness for high-value designs.
Monolithic: Fantastic Executor, Premium Valuation
Overall, it's hard to fault Monolithic Power Systems' operating performance. The company executes well across multiple end markets and is positioned to benefit from data-center momentum. The main caveat is valuation: the current share price implies very high free cash flow growth for many years to come.
Given those expectations, any execution slip could meaningfully pressure the stock. The MarketBeat consensus price target on Monolithic sits near $1,218, implying roughly 1% upside. Analysts publishing targets after the earnings release are, on average, more bullish at about $1,309 (around 8% upside). Individual views vary: Rosenblatt Securities' updated $1,000 target implies about 17% downside, while KeyCorp's $1,500 target implies roughly 24% upside.
Despite the premium valuation, Monolithic remains a high-quality company with multi-year growth potential. Advances in power-regulation chips and systems are a key enabler for broader technological progress, and Monolithic is well positioned to benefit if those trends continue.
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