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Palantir Stock Rises on Iran Conflict—But Here's the Real Story
By Chris Markoch. Originally Published: 3/2/2026.
Key Points
- Palantir stock surged on geopolitical tensions, but headline-driven rallies have historically been followed by sharp pullbacks, making timing critical for short-term traders.
- A new partnership with GE Aerospace and the U.S. Department of Defense highlights Palantir’s expanding AI-driven analytics platform, reinforcing its leadership in defense technology and operational decisioning software.
- Rapid commercial revenue growth and improving analyst sentiment suggest Palantir is evolving beyond its reliance on government contracts, positioning PLTR as a long-term AI growth stock despite valuation debates and near-term volatility.
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Palantir Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ: PLTR) stock was up more than 5% in intraday trading on Monday, March 2. The rally followed the initiation of military action by the United States and Israel against Iran. It may look like an enticing trade, but remember that rapid gains can reverse quickly.
For example, PLTR stock staged a similar move when the United States launched a raid in Venezuela in January. The stock then pulled back, trading down to around $130 roughly one week before the conflict with Iran began.
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Repeated event-driven spikes followed by quick reversals make it tempting to treat Palantir as a pure proxy for geopolitical risk rather than a business that is compounding long-term value.
That approach can work if you're disciplined about timing entries and exits, but it also raises the risk of getting whipsawed if headlines shift or the news is already priced in by the time you react.
For long-term investors, the lesson is different: don't confuse headline-driven volatility with the company's underlying progress. Separating short-term noise from the business fundamentals is one reason Palantir can still make sense as a long-term holding.
Palantir and GE Aerospace Land DoD Partnership for J85 Engine Support
Before hostilities began, there was news that helped the buy-and-hold case for PLTR. Palantir and GE Aerospace (NYSE: GE) announced a partnership on a contract with the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD).
The partnership covers the J85 engines, manufactured by GE Aerospace, that power T-38 training jets. The contract with the Defense Logistics Agency runs for seven months with the potential for a four-year extension.
Specifically, GE Aerospace is working with Palantir to apply AI and data analytics to predict parts needs, detect supply chain issues earlier, and accelerate decision-making. Before the partnership was announced, the two companies ran a test on more than 6,000 J85 parts that showed improved visibility and fewer delays.
The Contract Highlights the Totality of Palantir's Business
Critics will point to this as more evidence of Palantir's reliance on government contracts. That argument is short-sighted for two reasons. It's true Palantir generates roughly 55% of its revenue from government contracts, but "the government" is not a single client. Contracts across different agencies and partners are additive to future growth.
More important, the contract could spill over into Palantir's commercial business. That's not guaranteed, but GE Aerospace is using Palantir's software for applications with clear crossovers into commercial aviation.
In Palantir's most recent earnings report, the company said U.S. commercial revenue rose 109% year-over-year in full-year 2025. In Q4 2025, U.S. commercial revenue increased 137% year-over-year versus Q4 2024.
The takeaway: among technology stocks, Palantir has emerged as a leader in AI decisioning software used to automate and improve decision-making. It also means the company has established credibility in both the public and private sectors.
Analysts Have Turned Bullish
There are two schools of thought on Palantir's valuation. One camp argues the stock must fall to justify its current multiple; the other believes the company will grow into that valuation. Prior to the military action against Iran, analyst sentiment leaned more toward the latter.
The Palantir analyst forecasts on MarketBeat show at least nine analysts upgraded PLTR in February. The lowest price target among those upgrades was $150, about 12% above PLTR's close on Feb. 27.
Further support for the bull case can be seen in institutional ownership. Institutions own roughly 45% of the float, yet inflows have outpaced outflows about 3:1.
How to Approach PLTR Stock
From a technical perspective, the weekly chart suggests the recent move in PLTR isn't happening in a vacuum. Before the latest headline-driven spike, several weekly candles already showed signs of stabilization after the prior pullback, with buyers stepping in around the rising 50-week simple moving average near the mid‑$150s.
That behavior often marks the early stages of a trend resumption rather than a one-off relief rally. Volume has also begun to tick higher on up weeks, which can indicate institutions are accumulating on weakness rather than distributing into strength.
The one missing ingredient is a confirmed shift in momentum: the weekly MACD remains negative and has yet to cross above its signal line. Until that happens, investors should respect the possibility of further volatility, even as the broader setup begins to favor the bulls.
After a Near 50% Drop, Tempus AI Could Be Ripe for a Rebound
Reported by Leo Miller. First Published: 2/27/2026.
Key Points
- Tempus AI’s post-IPO volatility has reset expectations, but Q4 results showed strong organic growth alongside acquisition-fueled gains.
- Management’s 2026 outlook points to a potential full-year adjusted EBITDA inflection, a key milestone for the story.
- The company’s large multimodal dataset and entrenched testing channels may make disruption harder, even as analyst targets trend lower.
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Since going public in mid-2024, shares of healthcare and life-science services company Tempus AI (NASDAQ: TEM) have had a volatile ride. The IPO price was $37; the stock climbed to about $85 by February 2025, fell to roughly $50 in April, rebounded above $100 by October, and now trades near $54 — nearly 50% below its all-time high. Around the October rebound, MarketBeat cautioned investors that the company was flashing multiple overvaluation signals.
Tempus recently reported its latest financial results, and the stock fell about 7% afterward. With shares down sharply from their peak, the company is worth revisiting.
TEM Tops Estimates, Projects Full-Year EBITDA Inflection in 2026
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In Q4 2025, Tempus grew revenue 83% year-over-year to $367 million, beating estimates. Much of that increase reflected acquisitions, however; organic revenue grew a healthy 33.5%. The company posted an adjusted loss per share of $0.04, slightly better than the $0.05 loss analysts had expected.
Testing volumes in the oncology and hereditary businesses rose 29% and 23%, respectively. Sustained growth in these segments is crucial because more tests not only drive diagnostic revenue but also expand the dataset that underpins the company's data and applications revenue.
Tempus sells test-derived data to pharmaceutical companies to help improve clinical-trial outcomes. Data and applications revenue increased 25%, a slight deceleration from 26% the prior quarter. Net retention for the full year was 126%, meaning existing customers increased spending by 26% year-over-year.
Profitability is also improving: adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (adjusted EBITDA) was $12.9 million in Q4, versus negative $7.8 million in Q4 2024.
Looking ahead, Tempus expects revenue growth of about 25% in 2026 and forecasts adjusted EBITDA of $65 million — which would place the company in positive adjusted EBITDA territory for the first full year in its history.
TEM's Huge 450 Petabyte Dataset: An AI-Disruption Shield
AI-driven disruption may be limited for Tempus because the company has accumulated roughly 450 petabytes of multimodal data that it can use to train its own models.
To put that number in context, data storage company Pure Storage (NYSE: PSTG) — which will begin trading under the name Everpure on March 5 — estimates that, based on about 3.6 billion exams annually, the healthcare sector produces roughly 450 petabytes of imaging data per year. In other words, Tempus's dataset is comparable in size to a full year of healthcare imaging, a staggering lead.
That lead has grown quickly: Tempus's dataset has more than tripled since 2022, when it stood at under 150 petabytes. Much of the data comes from its diagnostics segment — the company performs oncology and hereditary testing — and Tempus says more than 8,500 oncologists plus thousands of other physicians regularly order tests, giving it a strong, hard-to-replicate flow of new data.
Replicating that training dataset would require conducting clinical testing at scale, which major AI labs generally do not do and are unlikely to pursue. Those labs tend to focus on software and agent-based products; having already trained models on coding and other public datasets, they don't necessarily need to amass proprietary clinical data to compete in many software categories.
Tempus is also developing its own foundational model and has submitted it to pharma giant AstraZeneca (NASDAQ: AZN) for review. That model could become an additional, currently underutilized revenue source.
Even After Lowering Targets, Analysts Eye Solid Gains Ahead
The MarketBeat consensus price target for Tempus is near $79, implying roughly 40% upside from current levels.
It's worth noting that many analysts have not updated their targets recently.
Among targets issued or updated after Tempus's earnings release, the average is modestly lower at about $71, which still implies more than 30% upside.
Overall, demand for Tempus's products appears strong, and existing customers are increasing their spending — a sign the company is delivering value and creating upsell opportunities.
Taken together, these factors suggest Tempus shares may have meaningful potential to rebound from current levels.
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