Dear Reader,
In 2000, I told Barron's magazine that a very popular, well-loved dot-com stock was headed for a world of hurt.
That prediction proved spot on.
Soon after, the stock dropped 90%.
I fielded a lot of attention for that contrarian call.
And I expect this time around will be no different...
Because today, I'm pounding the table with the opposite message.
The very same company that I warned about over two decades ago is now the lifeblood of AI data centers.
Yet almost no one has caught up with the story this time around.
While the media gloms onto the "AI Chip Wars" story... they've completely missed this company's essential role in building out data centers.
Their hardware is so essential that the data center industry uses enough of it to stretch around the world 8 times – in a single building!
So, if you own Nvidia stock now, you might be well-served to sell those shares and check out this under-the-radar play instead.
Or if you missed the boat on Nvidia, this is a rare second chance to target tremendous profit potential as AI data centers spring up in every corner of the world.
Get my full take on this exciting play right here...
Sincerely,
Eric Fry
Senior Macro-Investment Analyst, InvestorPlace
Home Depot Accumulation Is Underway—Why Dividend Investors Are Watching
Reported by Thomas Hughes. Article Published: 2/24/2026.
Key Points
- Home Depot’s dividend profile and long runway toward Dividend Aristocrat eligibility support the “quality + stability” case for long-term holders.
- Institutional ownership and recent flow trends are framed as supportive, even with tepid fiscal 2026 guidance.
- Q4 FY2025 was better than feared on revenue and adjusted earnings, but housing-market timing and rate policy remain the swing risks.
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Home Depot (NYSE: HD) is a Dividend Contender, and its stock is being accumulated. Dividend Contenders are stocks that have increased their dividends for a sufficient number of years to be on track for inclusion in the Dividend Aristocrats Index. Inclusion requires membership in the S&P 500 and 25 consecutive years of dividend increases — a milestone Home Depot will reach in 2031.
Inclusion in the Dividend Aristocrats Index typically boosts demand for a stock because ETFs and funds linked to the index must buy shares. More importantly, it tends to increase ownership among long-term, buy-and-hold investors, which can reduce volatility and improve total returns over time. The dividend yields about 2.5% annually, with shares trading around $380, and the payout ratio remains a sustainable roughly 60% of projected earnings.
HD Stock Accumulation Gains Momentum in Early 2026
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Institutional trends suggest the market is buying the stock. Institutional investors, who own more than 70% of Home Depot, have been net accumulators for years. While 2025 showed some selling near year-end, the annualized balance was greater than $2 bought for every $1 sold, and buying accelerated in Q1 2026. Activity in early Q1 2026 amounted to nearly $3 bought for every $1 sold, a trend likely to remain bullish given the business quality and long-term outlook.
Fiscal 2026 guidance was tepid, with revenue and earnings midpoints below consensus, but analysts appeared to have anticipated softer results. The company still forecasts continued growth at a low single-digit pace and improved earnings quality. Earnings quality matters because it supports the dividend outlook and future payout growth. Home Depot has historically made measured increases to the dividend and appears capable of sustaining a low-single-digit compound annual growth rate over the long term in the current environment.
The analyst response has been consistent with ongoing accumulation. MarketBeat tracked no immediate downgrades or broad revisions following the release, preserving prerelease trends. Analysts moderated some price targets but maintained a Moderate Buy rating and a consensus price outlook at-or-better than prior levels. As of late February, the consensus forecast implies roughly a 10% upside from key support levels, aligning prices with the top of the trading range.
Home Depot Underwhelms With Guidance: Q4 Results Better Than Expected
Home Depot struggled in Q4 2025 with tepid comps and a tough year-over-year comparison, producing a 3.8% decline in revenue. Still, net revenue of $38.2 billion was about 25 basis points ahead of expectations, supported by positive internals. The comps were distorted by an extra week in last year's reporting period; after adjusting for that, revenue growth was positive and margin pressure was more limited. On an organic basis, comps were up 0.4% systemwide, with U.S. comps up 0.3%, driven by higher ticket averages.
Margin dynamics were mixed. The company faced margin pressure and some deleveraging but offset those factors with improvements in operating quality. The net result was a 13% decline in net income and a $0.41 drop in adjusted EPS — still $0.20 better than forecasts. Excluding a $0.30 benefit tied to 2024's extra week, the EPS decline narrows to roughly $0.10.
Home Depot Catalysts Ahead: But Risks Remain
Key 2026 catalysts include potential stabilization in the housing market, increased demand for larger home-improvement projects as homeowners extract equity, and improving housing-market dynamics more broadly. While housing remained muted in early 2026, signs of improvement began to surface in late 2025, suggesting a gradual recovery rather than a rapid rebound. Primary risks center on the timing of that recovery, which is closely tied to Fed policy and interest rates. With expectations for rate cuts cooling, the glide path to a broad housing recovery may be longer than previously thought.
Technically, Home Depot's price action looks constructive but is not without obstacles. The stock jumped more than 3% at the open, leaving a small gap on the daily chart and establishing support near prerelease levels. In this scenario the shares could advance toward the top of the range near $420, but resistance around $395 may cap near-term gains. If the stock fails to break higher, it could remain stuck in the lower portion of the two-year trading range and test support near $340 before attempting new highs.
Whale Watching: BlackRock's Massive Bet on Nebius Group
Author: Jeffrey Neal Johnson. Publication Date: 2/17/2026.
Key Points
- The world's largest asset manager has moved from a passive observer to a top stakeholder by executing an accumulation strategy in the Nebius Group.
- Major technology clients are funding the aggressive infrastructure expansion through prepayments to secure future computing capacity for artificial intelligence.
- The strategic acquisition of a specialized search platform allows Nebius to evolve from a commodity hardware renter into an essential software provider.
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Retail investors operate in a world dominated by daily headlines. A missed earnings estimate or a slight delay in a product launch can send share prices tumbling as individual traders react to immediate news.
Emotions run high, and decisions are often driven by fear of loss or fear of missing out. The world's largest asset managers, however, play a very different game.
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They look at data over years, not quarters, and they analyze structural shifts in the global economy rather than the daily ticker-tape movement.
In the case of Nebius Group (NASDAQ: NBIS), recent market activity has been volatile following a mixed fourth-quarter earnings report.
While the market debated the timing of the company's revenue and its short-term misses, regulatory filings revealed that smart money was quietly executing a significant accumulation strategy.
The latest 13F filings, quarterly reports that disclose the holdings of major investment firms, show that BlackRock Inc. (NYSE: BLK), the world's largest asset manager, has taken a substantial position in the artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure company. While the retail market was nervous, BlackRock was buying — signaling a level of conviction that can create a psychological floor for Nebius's stock price and suggesting professionals see value where others see risk.
Inside the 9.4 Million Share Purchase
The raw data from the recent regulatory filing tells a story of aggressive accumulation. According to the 13F-HR form filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on Feb. 12, 2026, BlackRock Inc. owned 9,431,400 shares of Nebius Group as of Dec. 31, 2025. Based on the closing price at the end of that reporting period, this position was valued at approximately $789 million.
To appreciate the magnitude of this purchase, look at the trend line from the previous quarter:
- Previous Filing: BlackRock reported holding 23,866 shares in November 2025.
- Current Filing: BlackRock reports holding 9,431,400 shares in December 2025.
- The Delta: This represents a quarter-over-quarter increase of approximately 39,418%.
Institutional investing firms often start with toe-hold positions — small stakes used to monitor a company's performance without committing significant capital. The move from 23,866 shares to over 9.4 million shares indicates a strategic shift from monitoring to high-conviction ownership.
BlackRock has effectively moved from a passive observer to a top-tier stakeholder. This volume of buying is rarely an accident or a simple index adjustment; it typically reflects a calculated capital allocation decision by one of the most sophisticated investment teams in the world. They are not just testing the waters — they are diving in.
Prepaid Success: The $20 Billion Blueprint
Why would an institutional giant pour nearly $800 million into a company that just missed Wall Street's revenue estimates? The answer likely lies in the company's aggressive 2026 guidance and how that spending is financed.
In its recent earnings report, Nebius management forecasted a capital expenditure (CAPEX) plan of $16 billion to $20 billion for 2026. To an inexperienced investor, spending up to $20 billion might look like dangerous cash burn. Historically, companies that spend faster than they earn are considered high-risk. Institutional analysts, however, view this particular situation differently.
In the current AI supply shortage, you generally do not commit billions to infrastructure unless you have customers already waiting to use it. BlackRock is likely buying the company's revenue backlog.
- The Funding Model: Nebius has confirmed that roughly 60% of this massive spending plan is funded through customer prepayments.
- The Customers: Tech giants like Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) and Meta (NASDAQ: META) are effectively paying Nebius upfront to build the data centers and install the GPUs they need.
This structure materially de-risks the investment. The company's annualized run rate (ARR) reached $1.2 billion in December 2025, and management guided full-year 2026 revenue between $3 billion and $3.4 billion. By taking this position, BlackRock is essentially buying a stake in the physical infrastructure of the AI revolution — the servers and power supply — secured by contracts with some of the world's most creditworthy tech companies. It isn't betting on a startup finding customers; it is backing a contractor fulfilling orders that are already signed.
Strategic Foresight: The Agentic AI Pivot
A key aspect of institutional investing is forecasting where a company will be in six to twelve months, not reacting to where it stands today. BlackRock established this large position before Nebius announced its latest strategic pivot, suggesting its analysts correctly modeled the company's evolution.
On Feb. 10, 2026, Nebius announced the acquisition of Tavily for approximately $275 million. Tavily specializes in agentic AI, which enables models to search the web in real time to answer complex questions. This acquisition is important because it moves Nebius up the value chain.
If a company only rents out servers, it is selling a commodity and customers can migrate to the cheapest provider. By integrating Tavily's search capabilities into its cloud, Nebius shifts toward being a software platform rather than merely a hardware rental service.
That makes the product sticky — customers are less likely to leave because the software becomes integral to their workflows. BlackRock's entry suggests its analysts value Nebius as a future software platform as much as an infrastructure provider, which supports a higher potential valuation.
The Geopolitical Discount Is Gone
For much of the past two years, Nebius Group traded at a discount amid uncertainty about its separation from former parent Yandex. Many investors avoided the stock because of geopolitical risk and the complexity of the divestment.
BlackRock's roughly 39,418% increase in position size sends a clear message: that narrative is changing. The smart money has done its due diligence and now appears to view Nebius as a Dutch-headquartered global AI player. While retail traders may fret over a single quarter's revenue miss, BlackRock is focused on the 2026 roadmap — $20 billion in infrastructure expansion, much of it pre-funded by major tech customers, and a shift toward software-enabled services.
For individual investors, the disconnect between short-term price volatility and long-term institutional accumulation offers a clear signal: the builders of the AI age are still just getting started.
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