Dear Fellow Investor,
Wall Street's obsessed with the WRONG AI play.
They're dumping billions into yesterday's tech...
While Trump just greenlit what could be the most disruptive computing shift in history.
I'm George Gilder. For over 40 years, I've made my living spotting tech revolutions early.
Back in 1991, I told people smartphones would reshape civilization. They thought I was insane.
In 1994, I predicted streaming would wipe out video rental stores. Wall Street rolled their eyes.
In 1996, I said Amazon would dominate retail when it was still "just selling books." Investors laughed.
But investors laughed all the way to the bank:
- Apple: 249,900% gains since IPO
- Netflix: 112,700% after going public
- Amazon: 216,100% since its IPO
Right now, I'm watching something even MORE massive take shape…
The end of the data center era.
Three companies are behind it...
Constructing what I'm calling the "Trillion Dollar Triangle" featuring…
- Wafer-scale processors delivering 100X the speed of today's systems
- 90% cuts in energy consumption
- Tech that ELIMINATES the need for giant AI data centers
Listen, this might be the single biggest opportunity I've tracked in four decades.
>>Grab the three company names before the herd figures it out<<
To the future,
George Gilder
Editor, Gilder’s Technology Report
Qualcomm's Analysts Are Throwing in the Towel—Time to Be Brave?
Submitted by Sam Quirke. First Published: 2/18/2026.
Key Points
- Qualcomm has fallen from early-January levels above $180 to around $140, erasing two years of gains and returning to 2020 levels.
- A wave of downgrades and reduced price targets suggests confidence is cracking across Wall Street.
- But with the stock’s RSI flashing extremely oversold conditions and support forming near $135, contrarians are beginning to circle.
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Despite trading above $180 in early January, shares of tech titan Qualcomm Inc (NASDAQ: QCOM) now sit just above $140. The stock has essentially erased two years of gains and returned to roughly its 2020 price. For long-term holders, it has been a frustrating and bruising ride.
To make matters worse, the narrative has only grown weaker in recent weeks. Less-than-ideal guidance in the company's Q1 results earlier this month added fuel to concerns about the smartphone cycle and Qualcomm's ability to generate meaningful growth beyond it. Investors who were burned by prior false starts appear to have finally lost patience, and it's hard to blame them.
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What compounds the pain is that analysts who once largely ignored the name are now downgrading it and urging caution.
Still, as we recently highlighted, this setup can attract contrarians, and a buy-the-dip opportunity could be taking shape. Let's take a closer look.
The Bears Are Growing Louder
The shift in tone from the sell side has been noticeable. Daiwa Securities Group cut its rating on Qualcomm from Outperform to Neutral last week, while Morgan Stanley initiated coverage with an Underweight earlier this month. Wells Fargo has also taken a cautious stance, reinforcing the idea that investors should be careful.
Some reduced price targets now drop to the low $130s, implying that analysts still see room for further downside from current levels.
The bear case is straightforward: Qualcomm may look cheap on the surface, but cheap stocks can remain inexpensive for long stretches if growth underwhelms.
Cautious voices argue the stock is already priced for muted growth, with little expectation for meaningful expansion. If the smartphone cycle — to which Qualcomm is heavily exposed — stays subdued or earnings disappoint again, the shares could continue to be sold.
That said, it's notable that part of the analyst community remains optimistic. A handful of firms have rated the stock Buy or equivalent in recent weeks, underscoring how divided sentiment has become.
Price Action Suggests a Low May Be Forming
While downgrades make headlines, price action and technical setup often give a better read on the near term. Qualcomm's relative strength index (RSI) is flashing oversold conditions, signaling that selling pressure has reached unusually high levels. Historically, these readings have not persisted for long.
Importantly, the stock has found support after the sharp post-earnings drop in early February. After weeks of red-on-red sessions, the past week has seen a string of green days. That subtle shift in tone may signal the bears are beginning to run out of steam.
The $135 level, which the bears have been unable to breach, now looks like a key line in the sand. If that area continues to hold as support, the technical setup could flip from breakdown to consolidation. Given how oversold the stock is, it might not take much to trigger a recovery rally.
The Contrarian Case Is Worth Exploring
Not all analysts have thrown in the towel. DZ Bank upgraded the stock to a Strong Buy last week, Argus reiterated its Buy rating earlier this month, and Piper Sandler maintained its Overweight stance — with some bullish price targets reaching $200.
From current levels, that implies potential upside of roughly 40%, which, when paired with oversold technicals and stabilizing price action, is hard to ignore. Contrarian investors don't need Qualcomm to become a market darling overnight; they just need the stock to stop going down. Looking at the chart over the past week, they're starting to get their wish.
Weighing the Opportunity
There's no denying Qualcomm is likely to remain a frustrating holding for at least a little while. Cyclical headwinds and a chronic inability to sustain upward momentum have repeatedly undermined confidence. However, frustration can create opportunity—especially when sentiment becomes this negative.
If the stock can hold above $135 and continue to stabilize over the coming days, a cautiously bullish stance begins to make sense. If that level fails, the bears may have another leg down in store.
It's Not Too Late to Buy These 2 Red-Hot AI Infrastructure Stocks
By Ryan Hasson. Posted: 2/13/2026.
Key Points
- AI infrastructure stocks are dramatically outperforming, fueled by hyperscaler data center buildouts and surging demand for optical networking equipment.
- Ciena and Lumentum are delivering explosive earnings growth, with strong revenue beats and forward guidance tied directly to AI-driven network expansion.
- Momentum is extended in the short term, suggesting investors may benefit from waiting for pullbacks rather than chasing stocks after massive multi-month gains.
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While the broader market remains rangebound and choppy, with mega-cap software and tech names lagging so far this year, one segment has caught fire: communication technology companies tied directly to AI infrastructure. These names have dramatically outperformed, benefiting from powerful capital rotation and accelerating demand trends.
This corner of the technology sector is outperforming the Nasdaq and even beating defensive leaders in consumer staples and energy. The reason is simple: the AI buildout is no longer theoretical. It's physical—and costly.
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I predicted the 1987 crash six weeks early. I called the fall of the Berlin Wall. I pinpointed the exact bottom in 2009.
Now I'm staking my reputation on March 26, 2026 - the day I believe Elon will announce the SpaceX IPO.
Bloomberg is calling it "the biggest listing of ALL TIME."
A $1.5 TRILLION valuation... the "wealth-building" moment of the decade.
Today, I'll show you how to get in before the big announcement.
Hyperscalers and cloud giants are racing to construct AI-optimized data centers at a scale the market has never seen. That means surging demand for high-speed optical networking, photonics, and advanced transport systems capable of moving massive amounts of data with minimal latency. As AI models grow and inference workloads scale globally, networking has become as critical as compute.
With several leading names already posting massive year-to-date and multi-month gains, the obvious question is: Is it too late to step in?
Let's look at two standout names.
Ciena: Optical Networking Demand Surges
Ciena (NYSE: CIEN), a roughly $42 billion communications-equipment leader, has emerged as a direct beneficiary of the AI-driven infrastructure boom. The company specializes in optical networking hardware, packet-optical platforms, and software solutions used by service providers and cloud operators scaling AI capacity.
The stock is up nearly 28% year-to-date and more than 200% over the past six months, a staggering move that reflects both accelerating earnings and multiple expansion.
Recent results validate the momentum. For Q4 2025, Ciena delivered earnings per share (EPS) of $0.91, beating estimates by a wide margin while revenue climbed more than 20% year-over-year.
Demand tied to AI-related network upgrades continues to support backlog visibility and forward guidance.
Valuation tells two stories. Ciena's trailing P/E of roughly 350 appears extreme, but its forward multiple near the low-40s implies analysts expect substantial earnings growth as AI-driven orders convert to revenue. Institutional ownership remains high, with major net inflows over the past 12 months, signaling conviction among large investors. Still, after such an aggressive run, chasing new highs carries risk. A healthy consolidation above rising short-term moving averages would offer a more favorable risk-reward setup than entering on extended momentum.
Lumentum: AI-Driven Growth on Full Display
If Ciena has been strong, Lumentum (LITE) has been explosive.
The photonics and laser-component manufacturer—critical to hyperscale data center interconnects—is up more than 50% year-to-date and several hundred percent over the past six months. The rally has been fueled by eye-popping earnings growth.
Lumentum delivered EPS well above expectations for Q2 2026 on Feb. 3, with revenue surging more than 65% year-over-year.
Management highlighted demand from cloud and AI customers as the primary growth driver, alongside significant margin expansion.
Guidance for the upcoming quarter also came in ahead of consensus, reinforcing the narrative that AI infrastructure spending remains strong. Like Ciena, Lumentum's trailing valuation looks stretched, but forward multiples reflect the rapid earnings ramp. Technical indicators suggest the stock is extended in the near term; after such a sharp move, patience can be rewarded. Strong stocks often provide better secondary-entry opportunities after consolidations rather than at euphoric highs.
Too Late? Or Just Early in a Multi-Year Cycle?
The AI infrastructure cycle is still in its early innings. Data center upgrades, optical networking expansion, and AI compute scaling are long-duration trends that could play out over years, not just quarters.
However, near-term momentum is undeniably stretched across parts of the group—not only the two stocks above but also other leaders such as Coherent (NYSE: COHR) and Corning Incorporated (NYSE: GLW). For long-term investors, selective exposure on meaningful pullbacks may make more sense than chasing vertical moves.
The opportunity likely isn't gone, but disciplined entries matter more than ever when stocks are running this hot.
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