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Wendy's Stock Is Cheap, But Can the Turnaround Actually Work?
Submitted by Thomas Hughes. Date Posted: 2/17/2026.
Key Points
- Wendy's is well-positioned to rebound, but the timing is questionable amid competitors taking market share.
- Analysts are trimming targets but remain highly confident in the Hold rating.
- Institutions and short-sellers have the market set up to be squeezed when a catalyst emerges.
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Wendy’s (NASDAQ: WEN) stock has fallen sharply from its highs, presenting a deep-value opportunity for investors. Trading at about 12x current-year earnings and under eight times the 2030 forecast, the valuation implies a potential triple-digit upside versus industry leaders. The key question is whether the company can deliver a credible turnaround. The international growth story remains intact and supports current results, but self-inflicted problems in the core U.S. market will weigh on performance this year.
The good news is management acknowledges several missteps and is taking corrective action. The bad news is that public perception is slow to change: the company lost market share to competitors such as McDonald’s (NYSE: MCD) and is struggling to restore traffic. Several quarters of declining U.S. comps, margin pressure, and weak guidance have compounded the challenge.
Analysts Lead Wendy’s Stock to Long-Term Low
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Wendy’s analyst trends are bearish, skewing toward the low end of the target range. Those trends imply another modest, low-single-digit downside from mid-February levels, but there is a silver lining.
While some signals are negative—such as downward price-target revisions—other data are encouraging. The number of analysts covering Wendy’s began rising in 2025 and increased about 30% to 26 analysts by Q1 2026. Despite the headwinds, analysts rate the stock a Hold, with a 62% conviction rate and a roughly even split between Sell and Buy ratings.
Analysts have pushed the stock to long-term lows and identify a price floor around $7, consistent with those lows. Consensus also points to potential for a strong rebound—about a 30% upside—if certain catalysts emerge. Improving earnings, better cash flow, and a credible capital-return plan could all spark a recovery.
Wendy’s has already trimmed its dividend and reduced buybacks. If results do not improve, the dividend could face further cuts or suspension.
Free cash flow is declining but remains positive, and currently covers the payout. The 2025 free cash flow payout ratio is roughly 62%—elevated but still allowing for debt servicing. The balance sheet shows lower cash and total assets, alongside rising long-term debt and liabilities, leaving shareholder equity down more than 50% to $117.3 million. Leverage is high: long-term debt is roughly 23x equity and about 0.6x assets.
Short-Sellers Set Wendy’s Market Up For Rebound
Short-sellers present a headwind for Wendy’s investors. Short interest is not at all-time highs but is trading near historic highs—around 20% of the float as of late January. That level makes a sustained rebound less likely until short positions are reduced. When they unwind, the rebound could be vigorous.
Institutional owners hold more than 85% of the shares, providing a measure of support; institutions have accumulated as the market has fallen. Buying activity in early 2026 has outpaced selling by roughly two-to-one, which could be a tailwind once a recovery starts.
Technically, critical support sits near long-term lows established during the COVID-19 panic—around $6.82, just below the low-end analyst target of $7. Momentum indicators like MACD and stochastic show the stock is deeply oversold, so a bounce from these levels is plausible, and trading volume supports buyer interest.
Volume has picked up as the price fell, suggesting bargain hunters are active. However, if upcoming results disappoint or show no improvement, the rally may be limited and the stock could retest lows—or set new ones. Wendy’s expects weak comparable sales to persist, plans additional store closures to improve footprint efficiency, and has guided revenue and earnings below consensus.
Consumer Tailwinds Can Be a Catalyst for Wendy’s
Early indicators point to consumer tailwinds in 2026. Labor markets remain resilient and employment broadly supportive, and this year’s tax refunds appear larger than last year’s—early data show refunds averaging more than 10% higher than in 2025. That extra consumer cash could benefit this and other consumer discretionary names.
CRWD Stock: Buy the Dip or Beware the Valuation?
Author: Chris Markoch. Article Posted: 2/18/2026.
Key Points
- CrowdStrike continues to deliver strong ARR growth and platform adoption despite lingering concerns following its 2024 outage.
- Investors remain divided as premium valuation and rising competition from Microsoft and Palo Alto challenge the bull case.
- With earnings approaching, CRWD stock may stay volatile as markets look for proof that growth can justify its price.
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Is the worst over for CrowdStrike Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: CRWD)? That's what many investors appeared to be hoping when CRWD stock rose 4.4% in the five trading days ending Feb. 13. The stock is still down about 8% year-to-date in 2026, and the setup for the company's March 3 earnings report is coming into focus.
Investors will be weighing two competing forces. On one side, CrowdStrike continues to grow its annual recurring revenue (ARR) as it adds customers to its Falcon platform, and many customers are increasingly adopting multiple modules within that platform. Those trends support a higher stock price.
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On the other side is valuation. After a strong rebound following the well-publicized July 2025 outage, CRWD shares may now be priced to perfection — leaving little room for missteps. A robust fiscal Q3 2026 report could help, but investors have already shown they won't reward performance alone if expectations are too high.
Understanding CrowdStrike's Post-Outage Recovery
It may seem redundant to revisit the July 2025 outage that affected CrowdStrike's global enterprise clients, but the company's response mattered more than the outage itself. CrowdStrike offered customers access to some Falcon modules at no cost as a goodwill gesture, which helped limit churn and, importantly, expanded the customer base.
Since the trough of the post-outage sell-off, CRWD stock has risen more than 95%. That rebound has created tension among investors who believe in the long-term cybersecurity bull case but worry about a valuation that leaves little margin for error.
Is CrowdStrike's Growth Fully Priced In?
Counterbalancing the "outage fatigue" narrative is a practical trend: many existing and potential customers are consolidating technology stacks to control IT spending. That dynamic favors CrowdStrike's Falcon platform, which takes a hub-and-spoke approach built on artificial intelligence (AI) to deliver a unified solution for endpoint, identity and cloud security.
Competition is intensifying. Palo Alto Networks Inc. (NASDAQ: PANW) and SentinelOne Inc. (NYSE: S) have pursued platform strategies, and Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT) offers its own cross-platform security capabilities.
The counterpoint is that CrowdStrike still appears to be winning share. In its most recent earnings report, the company said 49% of customers use six or more of Falcon's 32 modules, and churn remained low — both indicators of rising ARR. In the last quarter, CrowdStrike reported a 23% year-over-year (YoY) increase in ARR to $4.92 billion.
Analysts Remain Cautiously Bullish
The overall analyst sentiment for CrowdStrike is bullish. The CrowdStrike analyst forecasts on MarketBeat show 50 analysts rate CRWD stock a consensus Moderate Buy, with a price target of $551.13 — about 29% above the current price.
That optimism has been tempered recently: several analysts lowered price targets in February, and a few new targets sit well below the consensus. That may reflect a broader selloff in software stocks and adds another layer of concern for bulls heading into earnings.
CRWD Stock Continues to Seek Direction Before Earnings
There are mixed technical signals. Bulls stepped in when CRWD flashed an oversold reading in February, suggesting institutional investors may be trying to find a floor. But the stock also recently formed a death cross, with the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) crossing below the 200-day SMA.
Momentum has favored sellers since the sell-off began: the MACD line has struggled to build consistent upside, and the bulls have been unable to reclaim the 50-day SMA since the slide that started in November. Add the current ambivalence toward technology stocks, and it's reasonable to expect CRWD shares to remain choppy before the earnings report.
Will Proving It Be Enough?
It's easy to call the upcoming report a prove-it moment, but a single quarter is unlikely to settle broader valuation concerns or sector sentiment. For long-term investors, the most important takeaways will be continued evidence of platform consolidation and sustained ARR growth.
If those fundamentals hold, a measured accumulation strategy on weakness could make sense for long-term exposure to a category leader — provided investors accept the likelihood of continued volatility as the cost of that exposure.
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