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CRWD Stock: Buy the Dip or Beware the Valuation?
Author: Chris Markoch. Date Posted: 2/18/2026.
Key Points
- CrowdStrike continues to deliver strong ARR growth and platform adoption despite lingering concerns following its 2024 outage.
- Investors remain divided as premium valuation and rising competition from Microsoft and Palo Alto challenge the bull case.
- With earnings approaching, CRWD stock may stay volatile as markets look for proof that growth can justify its price.
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Is the worst over for CrowdStrike Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: CRWD)? That's what many investors appeared to be hoping when CRWD stock rose 4.4% in the five trading days ending Feb. 13. The stock is still down about 8% year-to-date in 2026, and the setup for the company's March 3 earnings report is coming into focus.
Investors will be weighing two competing forces. On one side, CrowdStrike continues to grow its annual recurring revenue (ARR) as it adds customers to its Falcon platform, and many customers are increasingly adopting multiple modules within that platform. Those trends support a higher stock price.
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On the other side is valuation. After a strong rebound following the well-publicized July 2025 outage, CRWD shares may now be priced to perfection — leaving little room for missteps. A robust fiscal Q3 2026 report could help, but investors have already shown they won't reward performance alone if expectations are too high.
Understanding CrowdStrike's Post-Outage Recovery
It may seem redundant to revisit the July 2025 outage that affected CrowdStrike's global enterprise clients, but the company's response mattered more than the outage itself. CrowdStrike offered customers access to some Falcon modules at no cost as a goodwill gesture, which helped limit churn and, importantly, expanded the customer base.
Since the trough of the post-outage sell-off, CRWD stock has risen more than 95%. That rebound has created tension among investors who believe in the long-term cybersecurity bull case but worry about a valuation that leaves little margin for error.
Is CrowdStrike's Growth Fully Priced In?
Counterbalancing the "outage fatigue" narrative is a practical trend: many existing and potential customers are consolidating technology stacks to control IT spending. That dynamic favors CrowdStrike's Falcon platform, which takes a hub-and-spoke approach built on artificial intelligence (AI) to deliver a unified solution for endpoint, identity and cloud security.
Competition is intensifying. Palo Alto Networks Inc. (NASDAQ: PANW) and SentinelOne Inc. (NYSE: S) have pursued platform strategies, and Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT) offers its own cross-platform security capabilities.
The counterpoint is that CrowdStrike still appears to be winning share. In its most recent earnings report, the company said 49% of customers use six or more of Falcon's 32 modules, and churn remained low — both indicators of rising ARR. In the last quarter, CrowdStrike reported a 23% year-over-year (YoY) increase in ARR to $4.92 billion.
Analysts Remain Cautiously Bullish
The overall analyst sentiment for CrowdStrike is bullish. The CrowdStrike analyst forecasts on MarketBeat show 50 analysts rate CRWD stock a consensus Moderate Buy, with a price target of $551.13 — about 29% above the current price.
That optimism has been tempered recently: several analysts lowered price targets in February, and a few new targets sit well below the consensus. That may reflect a broader selloff in software stocks and adds another layer of concern for bulls heading into earnings.
CRWD Stock Continues to Seek Direction Before Earnings
There are mixed technical signals. Bulls stepped in when CRWD flashed an oversold reading in February, suggesting institutional investors may be trying to find a floor. But the stock also recently formed a death cross, with the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) crossing below the 200-day SMA.
Momentum has favored sellers since the sell-off began: the MACD line has struggled to build consistent upside, and the bulls have been unable to reclaim the 50-day SMA since the slide that started in November. Add the current ambivalence toward technology stocks, and it's reasonable to expect CRWD shares to remain choppy before the earnings report.
Will Proving It Be Enough?
It's easy to call the upcoming report a prove-it moment, but a single quarter is unlikely to settle broader valuation concerns or sector sentiment. For long-term investors, the most important takeaways will be continued evidence of platform consolidation and sustained ARR growth.
If those fundamentals hold, a measured accumulation strategy on weakness could make sense for long-term exposure to a category leader — provided investors accept the likelihood of continued volatility as the cost of that exposure.
Intel Stock Is Priced for Ruin, But the AI Offensive Is Here
Author: Jeffrey Neal Johnson. Date Posted: 2/9/2026.
Key Points
- The company has launched a unified roadmap targeting the lucrative artificial intelligence inference market with new discrete graphics processors and cooling technology.
- Strategic partnerships with industry leaders and significant government support validate the manufacturing capabilities and ensure a stable capital foundation for growth.
- Management is prioritizing high-margin data center products to navigate temporary supply bottlenecks and rebuild inventory levels for stronger performance later this year.
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Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) is at the center of a high-stakes tug-of-war on Wall Street. Two competing narratives are playing out in real time, creating volatility and confusion for retail investors. On one side, the company has launched an aggressive strategic offensive, announcing a return to the discrete GPU market and a major partnership with SoftBank (OTCMKTS: SOBKY). On the other side, operations are flashing warning signs, with confirmed reports of severe supply shortages affecting the critical Chinese market.
This tension between a revitalized long-term vision and immediate logistical hurdles has left Intel's stock price stuck in the upper $40s. While the headlines about delivery delays are alarming, they likely represent temporary headwinds. For investors willing to look beyond the next two quarters, Intel's shift from a defensive posture to an offensive artificial intelligence strategy creates a meaningful disconnect between the current share price and prospective value.
The AI Offensive: Brains and Memory
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Since late January, Intel has signaled it no longer wants to be primarily a manufacturer for other chip designers. Under CEO Lip-Bu Tan, the company is consolidating a unified roadmap that covers both compute and memory.
The most notable update came in early February when Intel announced it is re-entering the discrete GPU market. This is not a repeat of previous gaming-focused efforts; the company is specifically targeting the AI inference market. While companies like NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA) dominate model training, inference — running models to generate outputs — is expected to become one of the largest segments of the AI industry.
To pursue that market, Intel introduced Project Crescent Island. Built on the Xe3P architecture and optimized for inference, Crescent Island's key differentiator is its form factor. Unlike power-hungry competitors that often require complex liquid cooling, Crescent Island is designed to be air-cooled. That should make adoption easier and cheaper for standard data centers, lowering the barrier to enterprise deployment.
Backing the technical pivot is the hiring of Eric Demers as Chief GPU Architect. Demers, formerly of Qualcomm (NASDAQ: QCOM) and AMD (NASDAQ: AMD), is a heavyweight in the industry. His arrival signals Intel is attracting top-tier engineering talent capable of executing complex designs.
At the same time, Intel is addressing one of AI's biggest bottlenecks: memory. The company finalized a partnership with SoftBank to co-develop Z-Angle memory (ZAM). Current AI chips are constrained by the scarcity and cost of High Bandwidth Memory (HBM); this partnership aims to create a more efficient stacked-memory standard by 2029. That move positions Intel Foundry not just as a factory but as an innovation hub that could reshape industry standards.
The China Problem: A Capacity Crisis
Despite the strategic clarity, the operational reality in China is challenging. Reports on Feb. 6 confirmed Intel notified customers in China of delivery delays extending up to six months for its Xeon server processors. The announcement immediately pressured the stock and raised concerns about first-half 2026 revenue.
It's important to identify the root cause: this is a capacity problem, not a demand problem. During the fourth-quarter earnings call, CFO David Zinsner said the company's buffer inventory is depleted — in short, Intel sold through the inventory it had available in 2025.
Intel has entered 2026 in a hand-to-mouth position. Semiconductor manufacturing isn't a switch you can flip overnight: increasing wafer production today produces finished chips only months later. The current six-month delays in China are the predictable result of that cycle time. While this creates a near-term revenue gap and softer guidance for the first quarter, it underscores a bullish underlying reality: demand for x86 infrastructure remains robust. The problem is temporary logistics, not structural obsolescence.
Priced for Disaster, Built for Success
The clash between strategic growth and supply constraints has pushed Intel's valuation to historically low levels. The stock trades at roughly 2x price-to-book, while high-growth semiconductor peers often trade at multiples of 7x to 10x. That valuation gap suggests the market is pricing Intel for structural failure — a scenario the financials do not support.
Investors should remember the downside protection that creates a hard floor for the stock:
- Government Backing: The U.S. government holds an approximately 10% equity stake in the company, effectively designating Intel as a national champion that is strategically important.
- Strategic Investment: Late in 2025, NVIDIA invested $5 billion in Intel, which serves as a strong validation of Intel's manufacturing capabilities.
- Cash Fortress: Intel's balance sheet remains solid — the company exited 2025 with $37.4 billion in cash and short-term investments.
That liquidity gives Intel ample runway to navigate current supply shortages without raising expensive capital. In this case, the company is turning away orders because demand outstripped supply, not because its products are obsolete.
Patience Pays: Looking Past the Noise
The current volatility is the collision of two timelines. The supply shortages in China are a short-term weather event: painful, but likely to pass. The GPU pivot and the SoftBank partnership represent a persistent shift that could position Intel to capture a significant portion of future AI spending.
For traders seeking a short-term pop, the supply chain headlines are a real risk. For investors with a longer horizon — beyond the next two quarters — the current share price looks like a discounted entry point. Intel is consolidating a coherent roadmap across manufacturing, memory, and compute. As yields improve and inventory buffers rebuild later this year, the market will likely reassess the stock based on its strategic trajectory rather than its near-term logistics.
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