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Elon Musk…
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Nvidia…
Intel…
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Here’s to the future,
Matt McCall
AST SpaceMobile Jumps 9% After Government Contract Announcement
By Jordan Chussler. Publication Date: 2/25/2026.
Key Points
- AST SpaceMobile has secured a $30 million prime contract from the U.S. Space Development Agency (SDA) for the HALO Europa Program, marking the first-ever prime contract for its defense subsidiary and solidifying its role as a key government contractor.
- While the company has seen a one-year stock gain of over 200% and massive year-over-year revenue growth, experts question its ability to meet ambitious goals, including the launch of 45 to 60 BlueBird satellites by the end of 2026.
- Despite heavy institutional investment, Wall Street remains cautious with a consensus Reduce rating and high short interest (over 16%), as analysts weigh recent earnings misses against the company's expanding portfolio of strategic and military partnerships.
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Shares of SpaceX rival and communication services upstart AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ: ASTS) have risen more than 9% after the company announced it had been awarded a $30 million prime contract from the U.S. Space Development Agency (SDA) for the HALO Europa Program.
The agreement is the latest in a string of contracts that have helped push the stock to a one-year gain of more than 200%.
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The Midland, Texas-based aerospace firm is pursuing an ambitious plan to build a space-based cellular broadband network that connects standard mobile phones and other devices directly to its low Earth orbit (LEO) satellites.
The latest federal agreement, announced Monday, Feb. 23, is the first prime contract awarded to AST SpaceMobile USA, the company’s wholly owned defense subsidiary.
AST SpaceMobile Is Emerging as a Massive Government Contractor
In addition to its strategic partnerships with companies such as Verizon Communications (NYSE: VZ), AT&T (NYSE: T), Vodafone Group (NASDAQ: VOD), Japanese tech conglomerate Rakuten (OTCMKTS: RKUNY), real estate investment trust American Tower (NYSE: AMT), and BCE (NYSE: BCE), the company’s growing role as a federal contractor is positioning it as an increasingly prominent player in defense-related space services.
Details of the SDA award highlight AST SpaceMobile’s capability to deliver rapid, direct-to-device tactical communications using its dual-use commercial BlueBird satellite constellation.
The contract supports the Europa Track 2 Commercial Solutions program and contributes to the Tranche 2 Demonstration and Experimentation System (T2DES) project, which aims to strengthen the military’s transport layer of communications and data-relay satellites.
Chris Ivory, CEO of AST SpaceMobile USA, said the "selection for SDA's Europa Track 2 program validates AST SpaceMobile's ability to rapidly operationalize commercial space capabilities for national security." He added that "by leveraging our existing low Earth orbit dual-use satellite technology, we support the government's defense efforts, delivering immediate connectivity with our BlueBird satellites and scaling quickly to advanced tactical use cases."
Previous federal awards have proved to be strong short-term catalysts: AST SpaceMobile shares jumped about 15% after announcing a Pentagon contract on Jan. 16.
Lofty Launch Expectations Keep All Eyes on ASTS
Despite the bullish headlines, questions remain about the company’s ability to meet its ambitious 2026 launch targets, which call for putting 45 to 60 BlueBird satellites into orbit by the end of 2026.
On Jan. 22, the company announced that its next-generation Block 2 BlueBird satellite will fly on Jeff Bezos-founded Blue Origin’s New Glenn-3 (NG-3) heavy-lift rocket, which is expected to deliver the array into LEO "no earlier than late February."
New Glenn-3 can carry up to eight BlueBird satellites per launch. But industry publication Light Reading reported in late January that, at its current pace, AST SpaceMobile could miss its 2026 launch target.
Longer-term investors appear unfazed. Institutional investors have provided roughly $3 billion in inflows into ASTS over the past 12 months versus about $502 million in outflows. In the short term, however, analysts remain cautious.
How Wall Street Feels About ASTS Going Forward
Of the 12 analysts covering the stock, the consensus rating is a Reduce, with only three analysts assigning a Buy. The average 12-month price target of $52.94 implies more than 38% downside from the current share price.
Short interest remains elevated at over 16%—nearly 41 million of the roughly 367 million shares outstanding. That represents a 3.4% increase from the prior month and, at about $4.54 billion, is the largest dollar value of shares shorted since the company went public on April 7, 2021.
AST SpaceMobile’s next earnings report, scheduled for Monday, March 2, could act as a short-term catalyst that challenges short sellers’ pessimism.
When the company last reported, it posted a Q3 2025 earnings miss—its third consecutive miss—and revenue of $14.74 million versus analyst expectations of $22.04 million.
Still, year-over-year revenue in Q3 grew an astonishing 1,239.91%, suggesting the company’s growing roster of government contracts and strategic corporate partnerships may be starting to pay off.
Down 41% in 2026, Reasons for AppLovin Optimism Remain
By Leo Miller. Publication Date: 2/16/2026.
Key Points
- AppLovin shares have sold off sharply in early 2026 despite strong revenue and earnings beats.
- Investor fears center on new competition from Meta Platforms and startup CloudX.
- However, the company's growth remains highly impressive, and analysts are forecasting more than 50% upside.
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Of the stocks in the S&P 500, few have had worse starts to 2026 than advertising technology giant AppLovin (NASDAQ: APP). After delivering returns of more than 700% in 2024 and over 100% in 2025, APP shares are now down more than 40% this year.
This weakness stems from several factors. At the start of the year, AppLovin was trading near its all-time high, but the market has punished many software names in 2026. A new competitive threat—specific to AppLovin—also knocked shares down 16% on Feb. 4, and the stock fell nearly 20% on Feb. 12 after the company's latest earnings report.
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Still, amid this sell-off there may be reasons to consider buying AppLovin shares while they're on sale. Here's why.
AppLovin Posts Solid Beats, But Faces Questions About META Competition
In Q4 2025, AppLovin reported revenue of $1.66 billion, a 66% year-over-year gain that beat estimates of $1.61 billion. Earnings per share (EPS) rose 87% year over year to $3.24, topping expectations of $2.89. Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) margin rose to over 84%, an improvement of about 200 basis points versus Q3 2025.
For the next quarter, the company projects revenue of $1.76 billion at the midpoint, which would equate to roughly 52% growth, and expects adjusted EBITDA margin to hold around 84%. That guidance beat consensus, but the market was evidently looking for more.
Analysts' questions about potential competition from Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META) likely unsettled investors. AppLovin has, however, developed deep expertise in mobile game advertising, and it's not clear Meta would aggressively target this specific niche.
Meta's scale and technology could enable it to disrupt AppLovin if it chose to, but doing so would require significant investment. With Meta projected to generate roughly $250 billion in revenue in 2026 versus about $8 billion for AppLovin, the financial incentive to pursue this segment aggressively may be limited. Still, it's a risk worth monitoring.
CloudX: A Threat Investors Are Likely Overweighting
On Feb. 4, startup ad-tech company CloudX announced the general availability of its platform, which spooked investors and sent AppLovin shares sharply lower that day.
The concern is understandable: CloudX founders Jim Payne and Dan Sack were also behind MoPub and MAX, technologies AppLovin acquired and which have been instrumental to the company's success.
That these innovators are building a new product that could compete with AppLovin is a valid concern. But whether CloudX represents the existential threat implied by AppLovin's sell-off is questionable.
In a recent interview, Payne and Sack made several comments that are particularly telling:
- "I think we can actually bring more people into the mobile ads ecosystem and grow the entire market, and that's where our growth is going to come from."
- "We actually avoid the word 'move' because it is inaccurate to say that we ask people to move. We don't ask people to move. We're looking to be additive."
Importantly, the founders aren't urging mobile app developers to switch from AppLovin to CloudX. Rather, they position CloudX as an additive tool that could unlock incremental demand. They specifically say CloudX's growth will come from expanding the mobile advertising market, not merely taking AppLovin's customers.
That market is forecast to grow at a compound annual growth rate of more than 12% from 2025 to 2033, according to Grand View Research, suggesting total addressable market expansion that could outpace either company's ability to materially erode the other's share.
While the founders' comments don't eliminate competitive risk, the panic-induced sell-off implies the market may be treating CloudX as a more immediate and substantial threat than the founders' stated strategy indicates.
AppLovin: Growth, Profitability, and Analyst Backing
AppLovin now trades at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio near 25x, a level not seen since September 2024.
The company is forecasting about 52% revenue growth next quarter and is among the most profitable companies in the market. AppLovin's free cash flow margin of roughly 72% over the past 12 months is the highest among S&P 500 technology stocks.
The consensus 12-month price target for AppLovin sits near $652, implying about 78% upside. The average of targets updated after the company's earnings report is even higher at roughly $670, suggesting about 83% potential upside.
Overall, AppLovin is a highly volatile stock that requires conviction from investors. That said, there are real reasons to believe this name could see a substantial recovery going forward.
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