What OSINT saw overnight

January 21st, 2026 Welcome back to your daily mind meld with the Polymarket order book. The situations we are monitoring this morning: Top Stories Iran OSINT Twitter was buzzing overnight about a series of U.S. tanker flights heading across the Atlantic. Odds for a U.S. Strike on Iran in the coming months rose sharply on the news. Read more → American Football Seattle's odds to win the Super Bowl nearly doubled following their 41-6 blowout of the 49ers last week. The Seahawks continue to look dominant heading into the NFC East Championship against the Rams on Sunday. Check odds → Tariff Punt? Odds have collapsed for the Supreme Court to issue a ruling this month on the Trump tariffs. Attention is now focusing on mid-February for a possible decision. Check odds → ​ Wallet Watch Betwick One of Polymarket's sharpest geopolitical traders, @betwick, has been aggressively fading U.S. Iran strike polymarkets across Q1. View Wallet → ​ Breaking News Odds Will 'Don't Be Dumb' debut week album sales be at least 200k? View market → 6% -59% Will Donald Trump not announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve before February 2026? View market → 64% +17% Will Grok 4.20 not be released by January 31, 2026? View market → 87% +12% See all Breaking → ​ Ending Soon Ends In Oscars 2026: Best Director Nominations 12h Oscars 2026: Best Picture Nominations 12h Oscars 2026: Best Actor Nominations 12h Internet access restored in Iran by Friday? 1d See all Ending Soon → ​ New Listed Which countries will join the Board of Peace by March 31? 9h ago Kalshi stops offering sports event contracts in Massachusetts by Jan 31? 9h ago Who will Trump shake hands with at Davos? 13h ago See all New → ​ Hot Polymarkets 24H Volume Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair? $9.17M Fed decision in January? $8.29M Presidential Election Winner 2028 $2.34M Portugal Presidential Election $1.14M See all Hot Polymarkets → ​ Top Sports Starts In La Liga Winner 128d Rams vs. Seahawks 4d Red Wings vs. Maple Leafs 12h 2026 NBA Champion 160d See all Top Sports → ​ Last Word What C-Suites and Wall Street are reading Semafor Business delivers sharp, deeply sourced reporting on the forces shaping global markets. Penned by Liz Hoffman — one of Wall Street's best sourced reporters — it offers behind-the-scenes insight, smart analysis, and the kind of scoops senior executives and market insiders rely on. Read more → ​ If you have any feedback on Polymarket, drop us a line at support@polymarket.com. If you don't wish to receive these emails you can unsubscribe here. 1280 Lexington Avenue New York, NY 10028 U.S.