"Like the first days of the war"

July 12th, 2026 Unsubscribe Welcome back to your daily mind meld with the Polymarket order book. ⚽ $500 → $1,233 if France lifts the World Cup Top News War back on Iran said it has "completely closed" the Strait of Hormuz and hit the command center at the U.S. air base in Qatar with ballistic missiles. Local residents in Qatar describe it feeling "like the first days of the war." Check Odds → ​ Quick Links Iran successfully targets shipping? → Iran military action against Gulf States? → What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in July 2026? → Lindsey Graham The sudden death of Senator Lindsey Graham has thrown Republican politics into disarray. South Carolina Governor McMaster will name a temporary replacement, with early names being floated include Mark Lynch, who ran against Graham in the primaries, and Rep. Nancy Mace. Check Midterms Forecast → All top seeds in this "Final Four" For the first time ever, the World Cup semifinals will feature the Top 4 nations in the FIFA rankings. But one team is a clear standout to Polymarket traders... World Cup winner odds → ​ Breaking News Odds Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 12? View market → 57% +50% Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? View market → 33% -39% Israel military action against Greater Beirut by August 31? View market → 64% +20% See all Breaking → ​ Ending Soon Ends In Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? 2d Iran commits not to attack ships in Hormuz by Sunday? 13h See all Ending Soon → ​ New Listed US lifts CAATSA sanctions on Turkey by...? 15h ago Will the US House pass the Sunshine Protection Act by July 17? 18h ago Will Trump praise Allah again by July 31? 18h ago See all New → ​ Hot Polymarkets 24H Volume Iran leader end of 2026? $2.00M Fed Decision in July? $723.8K See all Hot Polymarkets → ​ Top Sports Starts In Norway vs. England - Player Props 10h $2.80M Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Alexander Zverev 7d $2.16M France vs. Spain 2d $1.28M See all Top Sports → ​ Top Comments Powered by @Poly_Archive Last Word THE TOTENBERG EFFECT On June 30, NPR published a story by legendary Supreme Court reporter Nina Totenberg incorrectly reporting the retirement of Justice Samuel Alito. This is the story of how one Polymarket trader walked away with at least $10k from sniffing out the fake news. Read more → ​ Trading Disclaimers Polymarket U.S. (iOS app) 18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading involves high risk and may result in loss of your entire investment. See polymarket.us/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated derivatives exchange and clearing organization. Polymarket International (DeFi) Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading involves risk and may result in loss of your entire investment. See https://polymarket.com/tos for more information. If you have any feedback on Polymarket, drop us a line at support@polymarket.com. If you don't wish to receive these emails you can unsubscribe here. 228 Park Ave S, PMB 750480 New York, NY 10003-1502 U.S.