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Iran Ceasefire or Not, These 3 Companies Could Win
Authored by Nathan Reiff. Posted: 6/15/2026.
Key Points
- An end to the war in Iran would no doubt benefit travel companies like United Airlines, Marriott, and Royal Caribbean, but these stocks may be positioned for success even if a ceasefire doesn't come.
- A combination of pricing power, strong cash positions, fuel hedging, and more help to strengthen each of these firms' prospects.
- Analysts are bullish on all three of these stocks despite the geopolitical headwinds.
- Special Report: The company SpaceX cannot operate without
More than 100 days after the start of the Iran war, investors are still struggling to predict when or how it might end. Between headlines about a ceasefire and renewed attacks, it remains difficult to assess how the conflict may evolve—and what impact it may have on the market. Given this uncertainty, investors may want to focus on stocks that could benefit from a ceasefire but may also perform well if the fighting continues for an extended period.
A clear choice for companies that may benefit from a cessation of fighting in the Iran war is firms involved in the travel and leisure industries, both of which are heavily tied to the price of oil and fuel. Companies like United Airlines Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: UAL), Marriott International (NASDAQ: MAR), and Royal Caribbean Cruises (NYSE: RCL) all fit this bill. However, each of these companies may also thrive if the war continues, and that is reflected in broad optimism across Wall Street.
United Benefits From Reduced Fuel Costs But May Have Resilience Nonetheless
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The Wall Street Journal is already raising the alarm about a potential market crash, and Weiss Ratings research points to the first half of 2026 as a particularly rough stretch for certain holdings.
Some of America's most popular stocks could take serious damage as a radical market shift plays out. Analysts at Weiss Ratings have identified five names you may want to remove from your portfolio before this unfolds.
If any of these are in your portfolio, now is the time to review your positions.
See the 5 stocks to avoidUnited Airlines, like other airlines across the industry, is heavily impacted by the Iran conflict, primarily because of the fluctuating cost of jet fuel. If fuel costs fall, United is a direct beneficiary—and during recent ceasefire announcements, airline stocks like UAL rallied on investor anticipation of just that scenario.
Beyond the cost component, the Iran conflict introduces new geopolitical risk that affects air corridors, flight logistics, and demand for international travel. All of this weighs on United's profits and margins, which must continue to outpace its high fixed operating costs regardless.
If the war continues, United does have the ability to pass higher fuel costs on to customers. In fact, the company indicated in its Q1 2026 earnings report that it expected to fully recoup increased jet fuel costs over 2026, resulting in double-digit pre-tax margins for 2027. The company was able to pay down more than $3 billion in debt in the first quarter while tripling its cash reserves. United has also suggested it may reduce capacity. By trimming marginal routes, the firm can focus on its more profitable operations.
Marriott's Pass-Through Potential Is Also Strong, and RevPAR Headwinds May Be Overstated
Like United, Marriott benefits when business travel recovers, and corporations tend to expand travel budgets for employees when geopolitical risks ease. This could be particularly important for international travel, which is likely to see a boost when the conflict in Iran is resolved. In addition, overall consumer confidence will likely improve at that point, and with customers less worried about war or the cost of travel, leisure spending may also rise.
The Middle East conflict is undoubtedly a headwind for Marriott—the company expects it could reduce its full-year global revenue per available room (RevPAR) by 100-125 basis points—but the chain outperformed in Q1 on RevPAR and recently boosted its full-year guidance. Financial results were also strong in the first quarter despite the obstacles, with adjusted EBITDA up 15% year over year (YOY) and adjusted earnings per share increasing 17% over the same period.
Also like United, Marriott may be able to pass some of its added costs on to customers through higher room rates. The company also has the advantage of franchising many of its locations, which helps reduce its exposure to energy costs. Finally, domestic travel may be less affected by the conflict than international travel, giving Marriott a strong part of its business to fall back on.
Royal Caribbean Has Fuel Resilience Even If the Conflict Continues
Cruise lines like Royal Caribbean are also exposed to the price of fuel, which tends to be one of the highest operating costs for a company like this. Like airlines, cruise company stocks tend to get a boost when headlines suggest a ceasefire may be near. Another benefit for Royal Caribbean in the event of an end to the conflict in Iran would likely be stronger booking trends, which are closely tied to consumer confidence.
On the other hand, if the war continues, Royal Caribbean may be able to lean on its strong pricing power, thanks to cruise demand that has remained surprisingly resilient since COVID. The company has also positioned itself well with fuel hedging, which may give it an advantage over some rivals. Analysts are bullish on RCL shares, with nearly three quarters calling the stock a Buy and a consensus price target that suggests about 20% potential upside.
Marathon Petroleum Is Back, But Cycles Still Matter
Authored by Peter Frank. Posted: 6/24/2026.
Key Points
- Marathon Petroleum’s first-quarter rebound was driven by stronger refining margins, improved cash flow and positive renewable diesel earnings.
- Marathon Petroleum continues to return significant capital to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases.
- Marathon Petroleum remains exposed to commodity cycles, crack spreads, refinery downtime and regulatory risks despite its strong operating momentum.
- Special Report: The company SpaceX cannot operate without
Marathon Petroleum (NYSE: MPC) is one of the most powerful energy companies in the United States, and, as might be expected, it is having a very good year.
With an earnings rebound in this year’s first quarter, stronger refining margins, positive returns from renewable diesel, and surging cash from operations, the company is also returning abundant capital to shareholders.
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The Wall Street Journal is already raising the alarm about a potential market crash, and Weiss Ratings research points to the first half of 2026 as a particularly rough stretch for certain holdings.
Some of America's most popular stocks could take serious damage as a radical market shift plays out. Analysts at Weiss Ratings have identified five names you may want to remove from your portfolio before this unfolds.
If any of these are in your portfolio, now is the time to review your positions.
See the 5 stocks to avoidThe question is not whether the business is performing well. The question is whether the cycle driving these results will last long enough to justify buying the stock at current prices.
Multiple Sources of Earnings
Marathon operates the nation’s largest refining system, but it is not a single-play investment. With 13 refineries and daily refining capacity of roughly three million barrels, the company also produces, stores, transports, and sells gasoline, diesel, and other refined products.
It also owns a large retail network of nearly 8,000 locations, mostly under the Marathon and ARCO brands. And its fee-based midstream business and growing renewable diesel segment give it additional sources of cash to help offset cyclical weakness in refining.
Strong Refining Drove First-Quarter Rebound
The first quarter of 2026 showed what Marathon looks like when the refining cycle cooperates.
Total revenue for the quarter came in at $34.6 billion, up 8.5% from the first quarter of 2025 and ahead of analyst estimates. Net income attributable to the company reached $511 million, or $1.73 per diluted share, compared with a net loss of $74 million, or 24 cents per diluted share, in the same quarter a year earlier.
Adjusted net income was $487 million, or $1.65 per diluted share, more than twice what analysts expected. Cash from operations reached $1.1 billion, compared with negative $64 million a year earlier. Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) were $2.8 billion, compared with $2 billion in the first quarter of 2025.
Midstream and Renewable Diesel Added Stability
The standout segment in the three months was its refining and marketing operations. Adjusted EBITDA came in at $1.4 billion, up from $489 million a year earlier. The segment margin improved to $17.74 per barrel from $13.38 per barrel, as adjusted EBITDA per barrel soared to $5.37 from $1.91.
The company’s midstream business, including pipelines, storage terminals, and processing facilities, continued its role as a fee-based revenue generator that is largely disconnected from commodity price swings. Conducted through MPLX LP, the segment’s adjusted EBITDA was $1.6 billion in the quarter, down modestly from $1.7 billion a year earlier, but still a dependable contributor.
Marathon’s growing renewable diesel operations also contributed. Adjusted EBITDA in that segment turned positive at $38 million, compared with a loss of $42 million in the year-ago period.
Wall Street and Shareholder Returns Support the Stock
Given these results, the company’s recent stock appreciation comes as no surprise. Currently trading near $250 per share, the stock has delivered a year-to-date return above 50%.
Of the 19 analysts following the company, the 12-month average consensus target is $272.94, with a recommendation of Moderate Buy. After a recent analyst price-target raise and several institutions buying into the stock, the highest current 12-month target is $344 per share, while the lowest is $210.
The company’s heavy capital returns also support the share price. Marathon returned more than $1 billion to shareholders in the first quarter alone, and its board approved an additional $5 billion share repurchase program, bringing total available buyback capacity to $8.6 billion.
The company also pays a quarterly dividend of $1 per share, which, at recent share prices, translates to a yield of about 1.6%.
Expansion Projects Aim to Improve Flexibility
The energy market, however, can change rapidly, and the past several months have provided proof of that. West Texas Intermediate crude oil started the year below $60 per barrel and soared to nearly $115 by early April. The current price is in the mid-to-low $70s. With crack spreads at historically high levels, prospects for continued strong earnings in the short term should be good.
Marathon, for its part, is looking to reduce some of the unpredictability. During the first quarter, the company brought its Garyville jet fuel flexibility project online, and an upgrade to its El Paso refinery’s fluid catalytic cracking unit is due in the second quarter. A jet fuel project at its Robinson refinery is then targeted for the third quarter. By stepping up its product mix, the company is aiming to increase its ability to shift output as market conditions change.
Commodity Cycles and Operational Risks Remain
The risks in the energy business, though, can be masked by the good times. Much of the first-quarter improvement came from favorable market conditions, and those can reverse quickly.
A year ago, the quarter was hit by lengthy planned maintenance, which reduced throughput and increased costs. Crack spreads were smaller, and the company reported a loss. Later in the year, fire-related downtime at one of its refineries helped contribute to lower earnings than expected.
In addition, the company’s own risk disclosures flag regulatory changes, geopolitical disruption, tariffs, inflation, interest rates, environmental liabilities, and unplanned outages as material uncertainties. And competition from others in the energy sector, including Valero Energy (NYSE: VLO) and Phillips 66 (NYSE: PSX), is ongoing and intense.
Even strategies to protect against price fluctuations do not always pan out. Much of the decline in earnings from its midstream segment came from a $77 million loss from derivative losses on its hedging activity.
A Strong Company in a Cyclical Industry
These days, given the state of the world, it’s easy to see how energy companies can thrive. But cycles can quickly change direction and undermine even the best operations.
For investors who want energy exposure in a diversified portfolio, Marathon is a strong choice. It’s a well-run company with a clear capital return strategy, improving operational quality, and a midstream business that provides income stability.
But it’s not a guarantee. Investors should be willing to think in terms of commodity cycles rather than quarter-to-quarter stability. For many value investors, the energy sector is a marathon, not a sprint to the finish.
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