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Trump’s Rescheduling of Marijuana Is a Spark for Top Marijuana ETFs
Submitted by Jessica Mitacek. Date Posted: 5/3/2026.
Key Points
- The Trump administration has moved marijuana from Schedule I to Schedule III for FDA-approved and state-regulated medical products, providing a major long-term tailwind for the industry.
- While the announcement sparked a short-term rally—including a 33% jump in the North American Cannabis Index—the full impact on company revenues will likely be gradual as broader changes await a June 29 administrative hearing.
- Investors looking to capitalize on highly discounted shares can look to the Amplify Alternative Harvest ETF for global exposure and dividends, or the AdvisorShares Pure US Cannabis ETF for a concentrated, higher-momentum play on the U.S. market.
- Special Report: Elon Musk already made me a “wealthy man”
After posting enormous losses over the past five years, cannabis stocks got a much-needed boost last week when President Donald Trump announced plans to officially reschedule marijuana from Schedule I to Schedule III under the Controlled Substances Act (CSA).
The April 23 announcement followed Trump’s April 18 executive order, which sought to increase funding and accelerate research into the use of psilocybin and other psychedelics as medical treatments for serious mental illnesses.
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Conditional Marijuana Rescheduling Is a Slow-Burning Catalyst
Although the news provided a short-term tailwind for cannabis stocks, it may take time to affect the top lines of companies that have positioned themselves to capitalize on state-level medical and recreational decriminalization.
According to the U.S. Department of Justice, the agency, in cooperation with the Drug Enforcement Administration, issued an order immediately placing both U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA)-approved products containing marijuana and marijuana products regulated by state medical marijuana licenses in Schedule III of the CSA.
However, that does not include the rescheduling of broader marijuana products, particularly for recreational use. That will depend on an administrative hearing scheduled for June 29, which aims to “provide a timely and legally compliant pathway to evaluate broader changes to marijuana’s status under federal law.”
Even so, the immediate rescheduling of FDA-approved products and state-regulated products has been long-awaited. Marijuana was added to Schedule I in October 1970 during President Richard Nixon’s first term, and the Trump administration’s move represents a potentially significant long-term tailwind.
The market reacted accordingly. From its one-month low on March 30 to its one-month high on April 22, the North American Cannabis Index (NTR) gained more than 33%. For two of the largest ETFs in the space, those gains were even more pronounced, highlighting the upside potential that a rebound in cannabis stocks could deliver.
A Basket of Pot Stocks Harvesting Global Gains
During the same period that the NTR index rose in anticipation of marijuana rescheduling, the Amplify Alternative Harvest ETF (NYSEARCA: MJ) gained 44%.
The passively managed fund seeks to track the Prime Alternative Harvest Index, which includes global companies engaged in the legal cultivation, production and distribution of cannabis and related products, as well as ancillary industries.
Notably, the ETF remains down in 2026, with a year-to-date (YTD) loss of more than 6%. But before March 30, that loss exceeded 31%, and its first-quarter performance suggested that more of the troubles that plagued the fund over the past five years—during which it lost more than 89%—could still lie ahead.
Shares are still trading well below their 52-week high of $46.75, but it appears that MJ’s holdings are turning a corner.
Institutional inflows have modestly outpaced outflows over the past year, though they remain well below 2024 highs. For speculative investors, though, the ETF pays to wait.
The MJ’s dividend currently yields 2.12%, or 59 cents per share annually.
A Cannabis ETF With a Domestic Twist
Narrower in scope, the AdvisorShares Pure US Cannabis ETF (NYSEARCA: MSOS), which launched on Sept. 1, 2020, is an actively managed ETF that primarily invests in U.S.-based cannabis and hemp companies.
As a result, the fund’s 62% gain from March 30 to April 22 outpaced both the NTR index and the Amplify Alternative Harvest ETF over the same period.
That has helped the fund move back into positive territory in 2026, with a YTD gain of more than 7%. But like MJ, MSOS has suffered enormous losses over the past five years, totaling more than 88%.
Over the past 12 months, the ETF has seen institutional buyers more than double the number of sellers, with inflows surpassing outflows for three consecutive quarters. Meanwhile, short interest in MSOS, while still notable at 5.94%, has steadily declined from its record high in December 2025.
Prospective investors should be mindful of the fund’s relatively high expense ratio of 0.77%. And unlike the Amplify Alternative Harvest ETF, MSOS does not pay a dividend. However, with its singular focus on the U.S.-based cannabis and hemp industry, it has the potential to produce outsized gains based on the momentum provided by the Trump administration’s marijuana rescheduling plan.
Shopify’s Valuation Crisis Creates Opportunity in 2026
Submitted by Thomas Hughes. Date Posted: 5/5/2026.
Key Points
- Shopify continues to fire on all cylinders, but valuation creates a headwind for price action.
- A forecast for compounding results sets up a catalyst for later in the year.
- Analysts are optimistic but have entered a wait-and-see mode after the Q1 release.
- Special Report: Elon Musk already made me a “wealthy man”
The most pressing issue with Shopify (NASDAQ: SHOP) stock is its valuation. The stock commands a significant premium, trading at more than 120x trailing earnings, but that premium is well-earned and already reflects a strong outlook. The company self-funds growth, maintains a high-20% growth rate, and points to compounding results in the coming year.
Looking further ahead, the forward estimates remain robust, putting this stock in the low teens by 2035 and suggesting meaningful upside. In that scenario, Shopify’s stock could rise by 70% or more simply to keep pace with broader market trends, and that doesn’t even account for its emerging role as an AI-powered eCommerce leader.
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Shopify Accelerates Growth in Q1: Guides Hot
Shopify delivered a robust quarter, which is saying something for a company that has maintained high growth for many years. The Q1 results showed an acceleration from the prior quarter and the prior year, with revenue up 34.3% and beating consensus by 250 basis points (bps). Strength was broad-based across geographies, merchant sizes, and channels, with gross merchandise volume up 34.7%, monthly recurring revenue rising 16.5%, and solid performance in both subscriptions and merchant services. Subscriptions were the weakest area, rising only 21%, but that was more than offset by services penetration, which increased by nearly 40%.
Margins were another area of strength, despite a contraction in GAAP results caused by a non-cash one-time item. The company saw some gross margin pressure but navigated the environment well, with gross profit growth trailing revenue growth by only 210 bps and operational strength helping offset the difference. Operating income increased by 88% and, equally important, the free cash flow margin held steady at 15%.
Guidance is typically a bullish catalyst for this market, though it was not enough to immediately support the stock’s price action after the release. The company forecasts revenue growth in the high-20% range, above the consensus estimate of 26.75%, with a mid-teens free cash flow margin. One sticking point is increased spending, which is weighing on the profitability outlook. The caveat is that investment in operations and AI has been paying off for the business and is likely to continue doing so.
Bullish Analysts Enter Wait-and-See Mode
The analyst response was ultimately bullish for the stock, although near-term headwinds have emerged. No analyst revisions were issued immediately after the report, but several commentaries highlighted slowing growth and higher spending.
The key takeaway is that the group of 44 analysts provides strong conviction in the Moderate Buy rating, with a 77% Buy-side bias, increasing coverage, and a positive price target trend as of early May. Consensus implies about 40% upside relative to key support levels, with the high end adding double-digit upside beyond that.
Institutions remain a concern for Shopify investors in 2026. The group owns nearly 70% of the stock and has been distributing aggressively, with activity ramping sequentially into Q1 2026. The pace is also high, roughly $3.5 sold for every $1 bought, and has been central to the stock’s action over the past few quarters. The good news is that early Q2 activity shifted back to accumulation, helping cement the market floor. However, there is still a risk that institutions could sell into any rally that develops.
Shopify Stock Is at Rock Bottom in 2026
Shopify stock may struggle to advance until later this year, but it is not expected to fall sharply either. The market shows clear support at the 150-week exponential moving average, a key trigger point for long-term buy-and-hold investors, including institutional traders. The most likely outcome is that Shopify trades sideways within its current range, possibly retreating to the $110 level or slightly lower before rebounding.
Catalysts in 2026 include the buyback authorized at the end of FY2025. Valued at $1 billion, it underscores management’s confidence in the company’s financial position and has already begun providing shareholders with support. While incremental, sequential share count reductions will add up over time and help lift the stock. Future catalysts include the potential for additional buyback authorization and dividends. Risks include increased competition from names like Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) and Mercado Libre (NASDAQ: MELI), which continue to gain commerce share in developing and emerging markets.
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