Dear Fellow Investor,
One of the most important companies in the world right now is hiding behind a smokescreen.
Its’ "public" business? A decoy.
Meanwhile — right under Wall Street's nose — it's been testing a revolutionary technology that could make today's AI data centers completely obsolete.
I'm George Gilder. I predicted Netflix in '94, the iPhone in '91, and Amazon in '96 — years before the gains of 112,700%... 249,900%... and 216,100% followed.
This could be bigger. MUCH bigger.
This company is one of three forming what I call the "Trillion Dollar Triangle" — a convergence that could end the data center era entirely.
Nobody on CNBC is talking about it.
But Vanguard ($101B), BlackRock ($82B), and Morgan Stanley ($17B) have quietly moved in.
They see it. Most investors don't. Not yet.
>> See the "smokescreen company" and the two titans converging with it <<
To the future,
George Gilder
Editor, Gilder’s Technology Report
Shopify’s Valuation Crisis Creates Opportunity in 2026
Reported by Thomas Hughes. Article Published: 5/5/2026.
Key Points
- Shopify continues to fire on all cylinders, but valuation creates a headwind for price action.
- A forecast for compounding results sets up a catalyst for later in the year.
- Analysts are optimistic but have entered a wait-and-see mode after the Q1 release.
- Special Report: Elon’s “Hidden” Company
The most pressing issue with Shopify (NASDAQ: SHOP) stock is its valuation. The stock commands a significant premium, trading at more than 120X trailing earnings, but that premium appears well-deserved and reflects a robust outlook. The company self-funds growth, sustains a high-20% growth pace, and points to compounding results in the coming year.
Looking ahead, the forward estimates remain strong, placing this stock in the low teens by 2035 and suggesting solid upside. In this scenario, Shopify’s stock could rise by 70% or more simply to align with broad market trends, and that’s not counting its emerging position as an AI-powered eCommerce leader.
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👉 Unlock the ticker now and get it completely free.The company is leaning hard on its 20 years of eCommerce data, using it to power agentic and assistant AI tools internally and for customers. Internal uses improve productivity and throughput, while client-facing tools make it easier to build, maintain, acquire customers for, and sell through online businesses, as well as process payments. Executives say that advantage puts the company in a category of one and expect results to compound in 2026.
Shopify Accelerates Growth in Q1: Guides Hot
Shopify had a robust quarter, which is saying something for a company that has delivered high growth for many years. Q1 results showed acceleration versus both the prior quarter and the prior year, with revenue up 34.3% and 250 basis points (bps) ahead of consensus. Strength was broad-based across geographies, merchant sizes, and channels, with gross merchandise volume up 34.7%, monthly recurring revenue up 16.5%, and solid performance in both subscriptions and merchant services. Subscriptions were the weakest area, rising just 21%, but that was offset by services penetration, which increased by nearly 40%.
Margins were another area of strength, despite a contraction in GAAP results caused by a non-cash one-time item. The company saw gross margin pressure, but it navigated the environment well, with gross profit growth trailing revenue growth by only 210 bps and operating strengths helping offset the difference. Operating income increased by 88% and, equally important, the free cash flow margin was maintained at 15%.
Guidance remains a bullish catalyst for this market, though it was not enough to immediately support the share price after the release. The company is forecasting revenue in the high-20% range, ahead of the consensus estimate of 26.75%, with a mid-teens free cash flow margin. Among the sticking points is increased spending, which is weighing on the profitability outlook. The caveat is that investment in operations and AI has been paying off for the business and is likely to continue doing so.
Bullish Analysts Enter Wait-and-See Mode
The analyst response was ultimately bullish for the stock, although near-term headwinds have emerged. No analyst revisions were issued immediately after the release, but several commentaries were, highlighting slowing growth and increased spending.
The key detail is that the group of 44 analysts gives high conviction to the Moderate Buy rating, as there is a 77% buy-side bias, coverage has been increasing, and the price target trend has been positive as of early May. Consensus forecasts 40% upside relative to critical support targets, with the high end adding double digits.
Institutions are a concern for Shopify investors in 2026. The group owns nearly 70% of the stock and has been distributing aggressively, with activity ramping sequentially into Q1 2026. The pace is also high, about $3.5-to-$1, and central to the stock price action over the past few quarters. The good news is that early Q2 activity shifted back to accumulation, helping cement the market floor. However, there is still a risk that institutions sell into any rally that develops.
Shopify Stock Is at Rock Bottom in 2026
Shopify stock may struggle to advance until later this year, but it is not expected to fall significantly either. The market shows clear support at the 150-week exponential moving average, a trigger point for long-term buy-and-hold investors, including institutional traders. The likely outcome is that Shopify trades sideways within its existing range, possibly retreating to the $110 level or slightly lower before rebounding.
Catalysts in 2026 include the buyback authorized at the end of FY2025. Worth $1 billion, it underscores management's confidence in the company’s financial position and has begun providing shareholders with support. While incremental, sequential share count reduction will add up over time and help lift the stock. Future catalysts include the potential for additional buyback authorization and dividends. Risks include increased competition from names like Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) and Mercado Libre (NASDAQ: MELI), which continue to take commerce share in developing and emerging markets.
Roblox Stock Slides to New Low as Safety Changes Weigh on Outlook
Author: Jennifer Ryan Woods. Publication Date: 5/3/2026.
Key Points
- Roblox’s first-quarter results showed solid growth, but a lowered outlook tied to new safety features sparked a sharp sell-off.
- After surging to an all-time high last summer, the stock has reversed course, hitting a new 52-week low as slowing growth and margin pressure weigh on sentiment.
- While analysts have turned more cautious following the report, most still see meaningful upside, though that will likely depend on whether growth stabilizes and profitability improves.
- Special Report: Elon’s “Hidden” Company
It’s been a tough stretch for online gaming platform Roblox Corp. (NYSE: RBLX), and some investors aren’t eager to keep playing.
Following the company’s first-quarter earnings report on April 30, shares plunged, hitting a new 52-week low of $41.75 and extending a sell-off that has already weighed heavily on the stock over the past several months.
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👉 Unlock the ticker now and get it completely free.Although Roblox delivered solid year-over-year growth and a smaller-than-expected loss, the company lowered its guidance, warning that new safety features, including global age checks and chat restrictions, could weigh on user growth and bookings.
Guidance Overshadowed Mixed Results
For the quarter, Roblox reported a loss of 35 cents per share, wider than the year-ago loss of 32 cents per share, but better than the 41-cent-per-share loss Wall Street was expecting. Revenue of $1.44 billion grew more than 43% year over year, but missed expectations by nearly $300 million.
On the earnings call, the company emphasized its commitment to rolling out additional safety features while acknowledging the move would create a near-term headwind.
“We’re committed to setting the global standard for healthy, safe, and age-appropriate digital engagement,” Chief Executive David Baszucki said, adding, “In Q1, we became the first large online gaming platform to introduce age checks to access chat on a global basis.”
Safety Changes Are Already Weighing on Growth
The safety changes have already had an impact, reducing the percentage of users communicating on the platform and contributing to lower App Store ratings, which may be slowing organic signups.
The pressure is expected to continue in the near term. Roblox expects daily active users to decline between the first and second quarters before returning to sequential growth in the third quarter. As a result, the company lowered its full-year guidance, now calling for top-line growth of 20% to 25% and bookings growth of 8% to 12%. It also warned that margins are likely to come under pressure this year.
A handful of negative analyst reactions followed the report, with at least two analysts downgrading the stock and one slashing their price target. The stock now carries a consensus rating of Hold. While many on Wall Street have turned more cautious, analysts overall still see upside, with the average 12-month price target suggesting the stock could rise more than 100%.
A Sharp Reversal From Last Year’s Rally
Roblox stock has taken investors on a roller coaster over the past year. Shares soared from the $50 to $60 range in April 2025 to an all-time intraday high above $150 by late July, driven by strong bookings growth and investor optimism. Shares gave back some gains in the following months, but remained elevated through the end of September, trading around $139. Between early April and late September, shares had risen more than 125%.
But momentum began to fade throughout the fall, and sentiment turned decisively more negative following the third-quarter earnings report at the end of October. Revenue missed expectations, and guidance pointed to margin pressure, sending shares down more than 15% in the sessions that followed.
The stock has struggled to regain traction since. Before the first-quarter earnings report, shares were trading around $55. They were recently trading around the mid-$40s, down roughly 15% to 20% following the report.
Strong Growth, But Profitability Still a Challenge
Despite the recent weakness in the stock, Roblox’s underlying business has continued to show solid growth. In the first quarter, bookings rose 43% year over year, which Baszucki said was “roughly twice what we’ve shared with investors as our long-term growth trajectory.”
The company also generated $629 million in operating cash flow, up 42% year over year, and $596 million in free cash flow, up 40%. Monthly unique payers rose to 31 million, up 52% from the prior year.
However, profitability remains a key issue. While margins have improved, they remain negative, and the reduction in bookings expectations is expected to pressure them further this year.
Despite the Sell-Off, the Stock Isn’t Cheap
Even after the recent sell-off, Roblox stock isn’t particularly cheap. It trades at a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of about 6.2X, more than double the gaming industry average of roughly 3X.
The valuation is similar to peers like Electronic Arts Inc. (NASDAQ: EA), which trades at around 6.8X sales. However, the profitability gap is significant. Electronic Arts reported net income of around $1.12 billion in 2025, while Roblox posted a net loss of around $1.07 billion.
Is This a Buy-the-Dip Moment?
After its steep decline that began last year, Roblox is clearly under pressure, and the latest earnings report has only added to investor concerns.
If the company can show that the impact from new safety controls is temporary, the recent sell-off could begin to look overdone. However, if growth continues to slow and profitability remains elusive, the stock could face further downside.
For now, investors appear to be stepping to the sidelines as they wait for more clarity on whether this pullback represents an opportunity or a sign of further trouble ahead.
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