Key Points
- Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile are the two most-watched beneficiaries of a SpaceX IPO, with accelerating revenue growth and expanding launch backlogs that could attract fresh institutional capital once the space sector gets its benchmark public listing.
- Intuitive Machines stands closest to profitability among the five names, with 2026 revenue guidance of up to $1 billion and a backlog approaching $943 million anchored by NASA and defense contracts.
- Planet Labs and Redwire remain earlier-stage plays with longer runways to profitability, but both could benefit from the wave of institutional investment a SpaceX listing is expected to unlock across the broader space sector.
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The most anticipated IPO in market history is no longer speculation. SpaceX filed a confidential draft registration with the SEC on April 1, targeting a $1.75 trillion valuation and a roughly $75 billion raise that would dwarf Saudi Aramco's 2019 record. A June Nasdaq listing is the current timeline, and MarketBeat analyst Thomas Hughes sees the event as more than a single stock story—it could be the catalyst that finally unlocks institutional-scale capital across the entire commercial space sector.
The way Hughes sees it, SpaceX commands the vast majority of global launch market share, and nearly every company building satellite constellations, lunar infrastructure, or orbital manufacturing depends on its rockets to get there. A successful public listing at this valuation legitimizes commercial space as an investable asset class. The companies already positioned in the sector stand to benefit from the capital that follows.
Here are five space stocks Hughes is watching ahead of that inflection point.
Rocket Lab: The Second Mover With Accelerating Momentum
Rocket Lab (NASDAQ: RKLB) is the closest thing SpaceX has to a domestic launch competitor. It is a distant second in terms of scale, but the gap in ambition is narrowing. Revenue hit $601.8 million in 2025, up nearly 38% year over year, and the company is accelerating its launch cadence while developing the Neutron heavy-lift vehicle that would open the door to larger constellation deployments and potentially human spaceflight.
The stock surged to nearly $100 in January before pulling back sharply alongside the broader correction in speculative growth names. It currently trades around $70, and Hughes sees that pullback as the market establishing support at a higher level rather than signaling a fundamental problem. The company is still unprofitable, but revenue growth and an expanding backlog suggest profitability could arrive within the next year or two. Fifteen analysts carry a consensus Buy rating with an average price target of $71.
The risk here is valuation. At roughly 60 times trailing sales, the market is pricing in years of execution. But Hughes argues the launch pace and the broader space investment thesis support the premium, especially if the SpaceX IPO accelerates institutional appetite for the sector.
AST SpaceMobile: Satellite 5G With a Massive Addressable Market
AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ: ASTS) is building something no one else has pulled off: a space-based cellular broadband network that works directly with standard, unmodified smartphones. The concept is global, uninterrupted 5G coverage anywhere on the planet, and the company is leaning hard into SpaceX launches to get its BlueBird satellite constellation into orbit.
Revenue exploded from $4.4 million in 2024 to $70.9 million in 2025 as the company moved from testing to early commercialization.
Losses widened to $342 million, but Hughes frames the current phase as a derisking story. The technology works. The satellites are launching. Major telecom providers, including TELUS (NYSE: TU), Orange (OTCMKTS: ORANY), and Vodafone (NASDAQ: VOD), have signed on. What remains is execution and time.
The stock hit an all-time intraday high near $130 in January, pulled back to the mid-$30s during the correction, and has since recovered to the high $90s. Hughes expects periodic pullbacks as the market recalibrates expectations, but sees the trend ratcheting higher as each launch and partnership announcement removes another layer of risk. The biggest near-term threat would be delays in the constellation buildout.
Intuitive Machines: Closest to Profitability With a Lunar Edge
Intuitive Machines (NASDAQ: LUNR) builds robots, landers, and infrastructure components for space, with a primary focus on the moon. Of the five names on this list, it may have the most compelling near-term financial story. Management guided for $900 million to $1 billion in 2026 revenue, a massive step up from the $210 million reported in 2025, driven by acquisitions, NASA's Commercial Lunar Payload Services contracts, and defense awards.
The company also guided for positive adjusted EBITDA in 2026, which would make it one of the first non-SpaceX space companies to reach that milestone.
A backlog approaching $943 million provides visibility, though revenue can be lumpy given the project-based nature of government contracts.
What makes Intuitive Machines more than a moon play is the breadth of its service business. NASA contracts and defense engineering work generate steadier revenue streams than lunar landings alone, and the $4.8 billion Near Space Network contract awarded in 2024 runs through 2034. The stock currently trades around $24, near its 52-week high, after spending much of the past year in a sideways range. Hughes sees the breakout as the market pricing in the profitability inflection.
Planet Labs: Earth Imaging in a Space Economy
Planet Labs (NYSE: PL) operates a constellation of Earth-imaging satellites and is evolving from a hardware company into a data-intelligence platform. Fiscal year 2026 revenue reached $307.7 million, up 26% year over year, with Q4 revenue of $86.8 million beating estimates by a wide margin.
The connection to SpaceX is straightforward: Planet Labs uses SpaceX's Falcon 9 rockets to launch its satellites. Every launch supports SpaceX's business model, and the growth of satellite-based Earth observation adds to the demand pipeline across the launch industry.
Institutional investors own roughly 40% of the float and have been net buyers at better than a two-to-one pace, according to Hughes.
The challenge is profitability. Losses widened to $247 million in fiscal 2026, and the path to breakeven remains several years out. Hughes frames Planet Labs as a longer-term play where the SpaceX IPO could accelerate the timeline by driving more capital into space infrastructure broadly. The chart action has been strong, with shares reaching new 52-week intraday highs near $38 in recent sessions, but the stock trades at a premium that leaves little room for execution missteps.
Redwire: Orbital Manufacturing at the Earliest Stage
Redwire (NYSE: RDW) occupies a different corner of the space economy. The company builds space infrastructure, including deployable solar arrays, sensors, avionics, and in-space manufacturing facilities, along with a growing defense technology segment that includes autonomous systems and optical sensors.
Revenue grew 10% to $335 million in 2025, but losses ballooned to $272 million, and the profit margin sits at negative 67.5%. Of the five stocks, Hughes identifies Redwire as the weakest near-term play, with the longest runway to profitability. The chart reflects that assessment—the stock has struggled for over a year and currently trades around $9.
The bull case rests on positioning. As more companies move into space to build satellites, infrastructure, and eventually manufacturing capacity, they will need the components and superstructures that Redwire provides. A SpaceX IPO that accelerates the broader buildout timeline could pull Redwire's demand curve forward. Analysts assign a consensus Strong Buy rating with a $13.89 average price target, suggesting meaningful upside if the thesis plays out, but investors need patience and a tolerance for volatility in the meantime.
The SpaceX Catalyst and What to Watch
The common thread across all five names is that SpaceX going public at a $1.75 trillion valuation creates a pricing benchmark for the entire commercial aerospace sector. It validates commercial space as an institutional-grade asset class and could unlock capital flows that have been sitting on the sidelines waiting for exactly this kind of signal.
Hughes cautions that the SpaceX IPO itself may be volatile. He expects the offering to be oversubscribed, with the potential for a sharp initial spike followed by a pullback as short sellers engage. For investors looking at the five stocks on this list, the play is less about timing the IPO day and more about positioning ahead of the broader capital rotation into space.
The names closest to profitability—Intuitive Machines and Rocket Lab—carry the least execution risk. AST SpaceMobile offers the highest-upside concept but depends on continued satellite deployment. Planet Labs and Redwire are further out on the risk curve, with longer timelines to prove their financial models. Across the group, the setup is the same: a sector that has been growing on speculation may be about to get the institutional validation that turns speculation into sustained investment.
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