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Home Depot Accumulation Is Underway—Why Dividend Investors Are Watching
By Thomas Hughes. Published: 2/24/2026.
Key Points
- Home Depot’s dividend profile and long runway toward Dividend Aristocrat eligibility support the “quality + stability” case for long-term holders.
- Institutional ownership and recent flow trends are framed as supportive, even with tepid fiscal 2026 guidance.
- Q4 FY2025 was better than feared on revenue and adjusted earnings, but housing-market timing and rate policy remain the swing risks.
- Special Report: [Sponsorship-Ad-6-Format3]
Home Depot (NYSE: HD) is a Dividend Contender, and its stock is being accumulated by investors. Dividend Contenders are stocks that have increased their dividends for a sufficient number of years to be on track for inclusion in the Dividend Aristocrats Index. Inclusion requires membership in the S&P 500 and 25 consecutive years of annual increases, a milestone Home Depot will reach in 2031.
Inclusion in the Dividend Aristocrats Index tends to boost ownership because ETFs and funds that track the index must buy the stock, and it often attracts additional long-term buy-and-hold investors. Increased ownership among these investors can reduce volatility and improve total returns over time. The dividend yields about 2.5%; shares trade near $380, and the payout ratio remains a sustainable ~60% of projected earnings.
HD Stock Accumulation Gains Momentum in Early 2026
Nvidia CEO Issues Bold Tesla Call (Ad)
While headlines focus on Tesla's car sales, tech analyst Jeff Brown says the real story is Tesla's role in a $25 trillion AI revolution — one that Nvidia's CEO himself has called a "multi-trillion-dollar future industry" — and he's uncovered a little-known stock 168 times smaller than Nvidia that could be positioned to ride this breakthrough.
Click here now to see the full reportAnalysts and institutional trends indicate institutions have been net buyers. Institutional holders, which own more than 70% of the stock, have been accumulating on balance for years. Although some selling occurred near the end of 2025, institutions bought more than $2 for each $1 sold on an annualized basis, and that accumulation accelerated in Q1 2026. Early Q1 activity saw nearly $3 bought for every $1 sold, a trend likely to remain bullish given the company's business quality and long-term outlook.
Home Depot's fiscal 2026 guidance was tepid — revenue and earnings midpoints came in below consensus — though analysts had anticipated a weaker outlook. The company still forecasts continued growth at a low single-digit pace and improved earnings quality. Earnings quality matters because it underpins the dividend and future payout growth. Home Depot tends to avoid aggressive increases but should be able to sustain a low-single-digit compound annual growth rate in the current environment.
Analysts' reactions so far align with continued accumulation. MarketBeat tracked no immediate rating downgrades following the release, leaving prerelease trends largely intact. Some price targets were moderated, but the consensus still supports a Moderate Buy rating and a price outlook at or above consensus. As of late February, analysts imply roughly a 10% upside from key support levels, placing the stock nearer the top of its trading range.
Home Depot Underwhelms With Guidance: Q4 Results Better Than Expected
Home Depot struggled in Q4 2025 with weak comparable-sales and a difficult year-ago comparison, resulting in a 3.8% year-over-year revenue decline. Still, net revenue of $38.2 billion was roughly 25 basis points better than expected and supported by positive internal metrics. The tougher comps reflect an extra week in the prior-year reporting period; after adjusting for that, revenue showed growth and margin pressures were smaller. On an organic basis, systemwide comps rose 0.4% and U.S. comps increased 0.3%, driven by higher average ticket.
Margins were mixed. The company experienced margin pressure and deleveraging but offset some of that with quality improvements. Net income contracted about 13%, and adjusted EPS declined by $0.41 — yet that result was $0.20 better than forecasts. Excluding roughly $0.30 of the prior-year week's impact narrows the EPS decline to closer to $0.10.
Home Depot Catalysts Ahead: But Risks Remain
Key 2026 catalysts include potential housing-market stabilization, demand for larger renovation projects as homeowners extract equity, and other housing dynamics. While housing markets remained muted in early 2026, signs of improvement began to emerge in late 2025, pointing to an eventual — though gradual — recovery. A principal risk is timing: recovery depends heavily on Federal Reserve policy and interest rates. With forecasts for rate cuts cooling, the glide path for a housing recovery may be longer than previously expected.
Price action is generally favorable, though risks persist. The stock jumped more than 3% at the open, creating a small gap on the daily chart that suggests support around pre-release levels. In this scenario, the stock could advance toward the top of its range near $420. However, resistance around $395 could cap gains. If the stock fails to break higher, it may remain in the lower portion of its two-year trading range and could test the $340 level before pursuing new highs.
3 Major Buybacks Just Dropped—Here's the Signal Investors See
By Leo Miller. Published: 2/23/2026.
Key Points
- Walmart, Lyft, and Equitable each announced sizable repurchase authorizations, signaling continued focus on per-share value creation.
- Lyft’s buyback capacity is the most aggressive relative to market cap, while Walmart’s is the largest in absolute dollars.
- Equitable pairs buybacks with a dividend and a rebound narrative, with analysts still forecasting meaningful upside.
- Special Report: [Sponsorship-Ad-6-Format3]
Several major companies just expanded their share-repurchase authorizations, giving them fresh capacity to retire shares in 2026. In a market where buybacks matter more than ever for per-share results, that kind of firepower can provide a meaningful tailwind—especially when growth is uneven and investors are scrutinizing capital allocation.
The headlines span three very different corners of the market: a consumer-staples heavyweight, a beaten-down ride-hailing name, and a financial-services firm overseeing more than $1 trillion in assets. The scale also varies widely, from sizable to outsized, with one new authorization totaling nearly 18% of the company's market value.
Walmart Announces Biggest Buyback Ever as Shares Climb
Nvidia CEO Issues Bold Tesla Call (Ad)
While headlines focus on Tesla's car sales, tech analyst Jeff Brown says the real story is Tesla's role in a $25 trillion AI revolution — one that Nvidia's CEO himself has called a "multi-trillion-dollar future industry" — and he's uncovered a little-known stock 168 times smaller than Nvidia that could be positioned to ride this breakthrough.
Click here now to see the full reportFirst up is retail behemoth Walmart (NASDAQ: WMT). Walmart delivered an impressive performance in 2025, with a total return of roughly 24%. Even after a selloff following its latest earnings release, the stock is still up about 10% in 2026 as investors have rotated into consumer-staples names this year.
Despite the recent pullback, Walmart continues to show robust financial performance, especially from its e-commerce push. E-commerce sales rose by 24% year-over-year (YOY) last quarter and accounted for a record 23% of revenue. Advertising revenue climbed 37% and membership income rose 15%—key drivers of margin improvement.
To cap a strong year, Walmart authorized a $30 billion share buyback program, its largest to date. The new program equals approximately 3.1% of Walmart's roughly $980 billion market capitalization, giving the company substantial ability to reduce outstanding shares and support EPS growth. Notably, shares outstanding fell by about 0.8% in 2025.
Walmart also announced a 5% increase to its quarterly dividend, underscoring its two-pronged approach to returning capital. The stock's indicated dividend yield is now near 0.8%.
LYFT Holds +15% Buyback Capacity as Shares Get Hit in 2026
Ride-hailing company LYFT (NASDAQ: LYFT) posted a very strong 50% return in 2025, but the stock is down more than 25% so far in 2026. The retreat followed LYFT's latest earnings report, which sent shares plunging over 20% in two days after revenue of $1.59 billion, a 3% YOY increase, missed expectations of $1.76 billion.
Adjusted EBITDA grew 37% to $154 million, comfortably topping estimates, but Q1 2026 adjusted-EBITDA guidance of $120 million to $140 million was viewed as weak.
LYFT announced a $1 billion share-repurchase plan. With a market capitalization of roughly $5.6 billion, that authorization equals a hefty 17.8% of the company's value. LYFT dramatically accelerated buybacks in 2025, spending around $500 million on repurchases—about ten times its 2024 level—which helped reduce outstanding shares by roughly 3.7% that year and supported per-share metrics. The new authorization suggests that trend can continue.
EQH Expects to Rebound in 2026, Announces $1B Buyback
Last up is a financial-services firm, Equitable (NYSE: EQH). Equitable returned just 3% in 2025 and is down more than 5% in 2026. The company offers insurance, annuities and retirement-planning products and had $1.1 trillion in assets under management and administration, a figure that rose by 10% in 2025.
The stock has struggled recently: Equitable missed adjusted-EPS estimates for five consecutive quarters and missed sales expectations three times during that span. After adjusted EPS rose only 1% in 2025, the company expects a much stronger 2026, projecting EPS growth ahead of its long-term target of 12%–15%.
Backing that outlook, Equitable authorized a $1 billion buyback, equal to about 8% of its roughly $12.5 billion market capitalization.
In 2025, Equitable took advantage of its weaker share price and spent roughly $1.45 billion on buybacks, cutting outstanding shares by about 9% for the year. The new authorization supports continued capital returns. The stock also carries an indicated dividend yield near 2.4%.
Analysts Express Confidence in EQH Going Forward
Overall, WMT, LYFT and EQH appear positioned to keep lowering their share counts in 2026. Aligned with its rebound narrative, Equitable shows the most upside potential among the three, according to Wall Street analysts: the MarketBeat consensus price target of just over $62 implies roughly 41% upside. The consensus price target for LYFT implies a similar amount of upside, but analyst targets fell notably after its most recent report.
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