The Crypto J.P. Morgan Chose (Under $1)
Dear Investor,
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Crypto 101
DigitalOcean's AI Surge: The Cloud Underdog Swims Upstream
Author: Jeffrey Neal Johnson. Publication Date: 2/25/2026.
Key Points
- DigitalOcean is successfully pivoting its business model to capture the growing demand for artificial intelligence inference capabilities.
- The company recently delivered accelerating revenue growth while maintaining a highly profitable business model with strong margins.
- Larger enterprise customers are rapidly increasing their spending on the platform and demonstrating high retention rates for the business.
- Special Report: [Sponsorship-Ad-6-Format3]
For the past two years, the artificial intelligence (AI) boom has felt like an exclusive party. If a company wasn't part of the Magnificent Seven, Wall Street barely paid attention. Trillion-dollar giants dominated the headlines, leaving smaller technology infrastructure companies watching from the sidelines. However, the narrative shifted on Feb. 24, 2026. DigitalOcean's (NYSE: DOCN) fourth-quarter earnings results provided concrete, numerical evidence that the AI spending wave has officially washed down to the mid-cap sector.
DigitalOcean's stock price rose after the report, trading up as much as 11% intraday before closing with a solid gain of just over 6% at $63. The catalyst was more than the earnings beat: the company also delivered revenue of $242 million, outpacing analyst expectations.
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While the headline move was a welcome gain for current investors, the real story was the raised financial outlook and the validation of a strategic pivot. The takeaway is clear: DigitalOcean has graduated from a niche web-hosting service for hobbyists. By rebranding as the Agentic Inference Cloud, the company is successfully capturing the application layer of the AI economy. It helps developers and small-to-medium businesses (SMBs) run powerful AI models without the complexity or cost of enterprise systems.
From GPU Farm to Sticky Platform
The most critical data point from the earnings report is the growth of DigitalOcean's AI capabilities. In the past, skeptics worried that Amazon's (NASDAQ: AMZN) AWS or Microsoft's (NASDAQ: MSFT) Azure would crush smaller clouds. DigitalOcean has answered those doubts with hard numbers.
The company reported that its AI-specific Annual Run-Rate Revenue (ARR) reached $120 million in the fourth quarter — a 150% increase year over year. But the growth story goes deeper than top-line revenue; it signals an improvement in the quality of the business.
- Moving up-market: Historically, DigitalOcean served solo developers paying relatively small monthly fees based on resource consumption. Now, revenue from customers spending over $1 million annually has grown 123% (customers spending over $100,000 annually were up 58%).
- Zero churn: Within this top-tier group of high-spend customers, the company experienced 0% churn during the quarter — not a single large customer left the platform.
- Expansion: Net Dollar Retention (NDR) ticked up to 101%, showing existing customers are once again expanding their spending instead of cutting back.
Crucially, this revenue is high quality. Some companies today act primarily as GPU farms, renting out raw hardware for short-term projects — a volatile revenue stream that disappears when the project ends. In contrast, about 70% of DigitalOcean's AI revenue comes from platform services such as storage, networking, and inference engines rather than bare-metal hardware. That mix indicates customers are building long-term applications on DigitalOcean's infrastructure, making the revenue sticky and recurring.
David vs. Goliath: Using Simplicity as a Moat
To understand the bullish case for DigitalOcean, investors should distinguish between the two phases of AI: training and inference.
The massive tech giants (hyperscalers) are waging an expensive battle to train foundational models like OpenAI's ChatGPT or Alphabet's (NASDAQ: GOOGL) Gemini. Training requires supercomputers, billions of dollars, and months of processing time. DigitalOcean has chosen not to compete there.
Instead, DigitalOcean is focusing on inference.
- Training is like building a race-car engine: it is hard, costly, and performed by relatively few firms.
- Inference is driving the car to the grocery store: it is the practical use of the model to perform work.
The market for running models (inference) is far larger in volume than the market for building them. For a small business or startup developer, the major enterprise clouds are often too complex, opaque, and expensive. DigitalOcean's enduring competitive advantage is simplicity: the company enables developers to deploy autonomous AI agents in minutes rather than days.
DigitalOcean is also protecting its supply chain. On Feb. 19, the company announced a partnership with Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ: AMD) to deploy Instinct MI350X GPUs. By diversifying hardware beyond NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA), DigitalOcean achieves two goals:
- Cost efficiency: it can offer better price-performance to cost-conscious SMBs.
- Supply security: it reduces exposure to potential NVIDIA supply constraints.
Spending Money to Make Money
The fourth quarter marked a psychological and financial milestone: DigitalOcean crossed $1 billion in annualized monthly run-rate revenue in December 2025. This milestone graduates the company from a speculative player to a serious infrastructure provider.
But stocks trade on the future. In a market hungry for growth, DigitalOcean's guidance delivered what investors wanted to hear: acceleration.
- 2025 actual: Revenue grew 15% for the full year.
- Q4 2025: Growth accelerated to 18%.
- 2026 guidance: Management forecasts continued acceleration to roughly 21%.
- 2027 target: The company has outlined a path to about 30% growth.
Unlike many speculative AI names that burn cash to chase growth, DigitalOcean remains highly profitable. For full-year 2025, the company reported GAAP net income of $259 million, representing a 29% margin. Adjusted EBITDA margins remained robust at about 42%.
There is one area of caution that management frames as a positive: free cash flow margins are guided slightly lower in 2026, to a range of 15–17%. In many contexts, lower cash flow is a warning sign; here it appears to be a calculated bet. Management is intentionally increasing capital expenditures to build new data centers because demand currently exceeds supply. The company is spending to capture visible growth rather than burning cash on uncertain customer acquisition.
Why DigitalOcean Matters in 2026
DigitalOcean presents a distinctive risk-to-reward profile in the current technology landscape. With a market capitalization of roughly $5.8 billion, it offers exposure to the practical application layer of AI without the valuation premiums attached to the Magnificent Seven.
The stock also carries relatively high short interest — about 10.7%. As the company proves its thesis and accelerates revenue, short sellers may be forced to cover, potentially adding upward momentum to the stock.
DigitalOcean has evolved from a simple web-hosting provider into a meaningful infrastructure player in the AI economy. With accelerating revenue, clear traction in AI, and a foundation of profitability, the small fish is proving it can swim upstream. The data suggest that while the giants fight for the sky, DigitalOcean is winning on the ground.
After a Near 50% Drop, Tempus AI Could Be Ripe for a Rebound
Author: Leo Miller. Publication Date: 2/27/2026.
Key Points
- Tempus AI’s post-IPO volatility has reset expectations, but Q4 results showed strong organic growth alongside acquisition-fueled gains.
- Management’s 2026 outlook points to a potential full-year adjusted EBITDA inflection, a key milestone for the story.
- The company’s large multimodal dataset and entrenched testing channels may make disruption harder, even as analyst targets trend lower.
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Since going public in mid-2024, shares of healthcare and life sciences services company Tempus AI (NASDAQ: TEM) have been on a volatile ride. The IPO price was $37. The stock climbed above $85 by February 2025, fell to about $50 a couple of months later, and by October rebounded above $100. Around that rebound, MarketBeat cautioned investors after Tempus flashed multiple overvaluation signals. The shares now trade near $54, down roughly 50% from their peak.
Tempus recently reported its latest financial results, and the stock fell about 7% on the news. Even so, with shares much lower than their highs, the company is worth revisiting.
TEM Tops Estimates, Projects Full-Year EBITDA Inflection in 2026
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In Q4 2025, Tempus grew revenue 83% year‑over‑year to $367 million, beating estimates. Much of that increase reflected acquisitions, but organic revenue still climbed a strong 33.5%. Adjusted loss per share was $0.04, slightly better than the $0.05 analysts expected.
Testing volume rose 29% in oncology and 23% in hereditary testing — growth that's important because test volume drives both diagnostic revenue and the data that feeds Tempus's higher‑margin applications business.
Tempus sells the data produced by its tests to pharmaceutical customers to help improve clinical trial outcomes. Data and applications revenue increased 25%, a modest slowdown from 26% the prior quarter. The company's full‑year net retention rate was 126%, meaning existing customers from 2024 increased their spending by 26% in 2025.
Profitability is improving as well. Adjusted EBITDA was $12.9 million in Q4 2025, compared with a negative $7.8 million in Q4 2024.
Looking forward, Tempus expects revenue growth of about 25% in 2026 and forecasts adjusted EBITDA of $65 million — which would mark the company's first full‑year positive adjusted EBITDA.
TEM's Huge 450‑Petabyte Dataset: An AI‑Disruption Shield
Tempus has built an enormous advantage in data: roughly 450 petabytes of multimodal healthcare data that can be used to train models. That scale is significant when considering the potential for AI to disrupt the business.
Data storage firm Pure Storage (NYSE: PSTG), which will begin trading under the name Everpure on March 5, estimates the healthcare sector generates about 450 petabytes of imaging data per year. In other words, Tempus's dataset is comparable in size to the annual imaging output of the entire healthcare system — a staggering position to hold.
The company's data lead is growing and would be difficult for new competitors to replicate. Tempus's dataset has more than tripled since 2022, when it was under 150 petabytes. Much of the data comes from its diagnostics operations: more than 8,500 oncologists and thousands of other physicians regularly order tests, providing a steady stream of training data.
For an AI lab to replicate that dataset they would need to perform diagnostic testing at scale — something the major AI players currently do not do and are unlikely to pursue. AI developers are more likely to attack software‑as‑a‑service tools where publicly available data and coding corpora already provide a strong starting point.
Tempus is also developing its own foundational model and has submitted it to pharma giant AstraZeneca (NASDAQ: AZN) for review. That model represents an additional, largely untapped potential revenue stream.
Even After Lowering Targets, Analysts Eye Solid Gains Ahead
The MarketBeat consensus price target for Tempus is about $79, implying more than 40% upside from current levels.
Many analysts, however, have not refreshed their targets recently. Among targets updated or issued after Tempus's earnings release, the average is lower at roughly $71, which still implies more than 30% upside.
Demand for Tempus's products appears strong, and existing customers are spending more — a sign the company is delivering value and generating upsell opportunities.
Given improving profitability, sizable organic growth, and a competitive moat built on proprietary data, Tempus shares look poised for a meaningful rebound.
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