93% Chance of Recession in 2026
Major Banks Are Sounding the Alarm
Dear Reader,
UBS just issued a stark warning: there's a 93 percent chance of a U.S. recession hitting in 2026.
They're pointing to the same red flags that appeared before every major downturn: slowing job growth, declining industrial output, tightening credit, and a yield curve that has remained inverted for months.
Why does this matter to you?
Because there are always opportunities for those who move first.
During past recessions, gold has been one of the best performing assets:
- +26% during the 2000–2001 dot-com collapse
- +39% during the 2008 financial crisis
- +32% during the 2020 covid crash
With the Federal Reserve cutting rates, and economic conditions weakening, J.P. Morgan now forecasts gold reaching $6,000 per ounce in the coming cycle.
Gold has always been more than an investment. It's peace of mind in tough times.
That's why Hedge Fund Billionaire Ray Dalio recommends a 10-15% gold allocation in all investment portfolios as part of a diversified strategy.
To help investors prepare, Cedar Gold Group created the 2026 Wealth Protection Playbook.
A free guide that explains how to buy gold with cash or through your retirement account, tax-deferred and penalty-free.
Inside, you'll learn:
✅ Why a recession is almost certain
✅ How gold has historically performed during recessions
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✅ How to protect your savings before the next market downturn hits
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But don't delay.
Recessions don't announce themselves. By the time the headlines confirm it, it may be too late to protect what you've earned.
Get Your Free 2026 Wealth Protection Playbook, before the 2026 recession takes hold.
Sincerely,
Cedar Gold Group
Tesla's 2026 May Hinge on a March 9 Outcome
Authored by Sam Quirke. Article Published: 3/4/2026.
Key Points
- Tesla shares are once again testing critical support near $390, with the bulls forced to defend it again.
- After two extensions, Tesla must deliver key data to regulators by March 9, putting its autonomy narrative under direct scrutiny.
- With analysts growing more cautious and the stock struggling to gain momentum, this deadline could determine whether 2026 becomes a reset or breakdown year.
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Shares of Tesla Inc (NASDAQ: TSLA) trade around $390, sitting at the lower end of a multi-month range after several failed attempts to sustain gains following January's earnings beat. The company beat headline expectations in that report, but the stock could not maintain upside momentum. Since then, sellers have pushed it back toward this support level, which has already been defended twice in recent months.
The repeated tests suggest bullish conviction may be thinning. But another big test for Tesla approaches on March 9, and it could matter far more than short-term price action in determining whether the stock can recover in 2026.
Why the March 9 Deadline Matters
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Tesla must submit detailed data to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) tied to its Full Self-Driving (FSD) system as part of an investigation into traffic incidents and system performance. The company has already received two extensions on its original mid-January deadline, so the March 9 submission is starting to look less like routine paperwork and more like a critical compliance moment.
While this is not a final ruling or enforcement action, optics matter. Delivering comprehensive, reassuring data could ease regulatory pressure and bolster Tesla's claim that its autonomy roadmap remains viable. Failing to satisfy regulators, however, risks escalating scrutiny and prolonging uncertainty around one of the company's most important strategic pillars.
For a business whose valuation increasingly hinges on autonomy rather than vehicle volume alone, that distinction is meaningful. Investors are no longer just betting on Tesla's EV deliveries; they're also betting on Full Self-Driving, robotaxis, and the broader artificial intelligence (AI) narrative that Elon Musk frames as Tesla's future.
Autonomy Drives the Multiple
As we've recently highlighted, Tesla's valuation now reflects far more than car sales. The company's push toward an "Amazing Abundance" vision centered on robotics and AI has encouraged investors to look beyond near-term delivery softness and margin pressure.
That shift also creates fragility. If autonomy progress appears stalled or vulnerable to regulatory setbacks, the premium multiple becomes harder to justify—especially when the stock is already under pressure. At roughly $390, Tesla remains nearly 20% below December's all-time high, and investors are clearly looking for tangible execution to back up the company's ambitions.
This tension shows up in recent analyst commentary. Barclays has assigned a Neutral rating in recent weeks, while BNP Paribas began this week by reiterating a Sell-equivalent stance with a $280 price target, implying roughly 30% downside.
That would be significant on its own, and it echoes similarly bearish views from Phillip Securities (with a $215 target last month) and JPMorgan (a $145 target in January). With skeptics growing more vocal, the March 9 deadline feels less symbolic and more like a real-time test of whether Tesla can preserve credibility at a pivotal moment.
The Bears Are Growing Louder
The technical backdrop adds to the pressure. Tesla has ceded ground since before Christmas and established a multi-month pattern of lower highs. Each bounce has been shallower, and repeated tests of the $390 support have made the bulls' resolve look increasingly fragile.
Deliveries are falling, competition in the EV space is intensifying, and expectations around Tesla's autonomy potential may be running ahead of execution. In that context, another regulatory cloud would strengthen the argument that the stock's premium valuation is due for a reset.
Conversely, a clean regulatory outcome that removes uncertainty could quickly flip the narrative. Tesla has shown that when a major overhang clears, sentiment can reverse rapidly, forcing short sellers to cover.
The $390 Line in the Sand
If Tesla navigates the March 9 deadline without triggering deeper concerns, it could open the door to a move back toward the upper end of the recent range and potentially rekindle the broader uptrend.
If the outcome disappoints, however, the combination of regulatory uncertainty and a third failed support test could tip the balance decisively toward the bears. In that scenario, the view that Tesla cannot afford anything less than near-perfect execution would gain serious traction. Either way, next week will likely determine whether Tesla stabilizes here or slides into a steeper downtrend.
Salesforce: A Week After Earnings, the Market Has Spoken
Authored by Sam Quirke. Article Published: 3/6/2026.
Key Points
- Salesforce shares have rebounded nearly 15% from their pre-earnings low, having fallen 50% from last year’s highs.
- Despite growing fears that artificial intelligence will disrupt traditional software companies, Salesforce remains the dominant enterprise CRM platform.
- Analysts remain firmly bullish, with Needham’s $400 price target highlighting roughly 100% in potential upside.
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Software giant Salesforce Inc (NYSE: CRM) has spent the past year largely on the defensive. Its shares fell as much as 50% from last year's highs before recovering and currently trade near $200, reflecting broad concerns that artificial intelligence (AI) could disrupt parts of the company's traditional business model. Those worries aren't unique to Salesforce, but the company has been one of the more visible casualties of the shift in sentiment.
Salesforce's latest earnings report, released on Feb. 25, may have been a turning point. The company beat expectations and reported record revenue, a reminder that demand for its platform remains strong even as the broader software sector adapts to rapid technological change.
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Currently, $2 TRILLION worth of transactions go through the traditional network every single day. But soon, it will be funneled through the new network that the Federal Reserve has built, operates and can see in real time.
That's the part buried in the Federal Reserve Docket No. OP-1670.
In fact, on page 84 of the 93-page document, they admit that it will make it easier to track the spending of Americans.
One week after those results the market appears to be responding. Shares have rebounded roughly 15% from their pre-earnings lows and have so far held those gains, suggesting investors may be starting to look past the worst-case AI narrative. Let's look at what else Salesforce has going for it, and why the risk/reward profile is so attractive right now.
Core Business Remains Strong
The fundamental case for Salesforce hasn't changed as much as the stock price might imply. The company is the dominant customer relationship management (CRM) platform for many large enterprises, with its tools deeply integrated into sales, marketing and customer service operations across thousands of organizations.
Although investors worry that AI could automate parts of Salesforce's business, the company's recent results show resilient demand. Visibility into growth may have dimmed somewhat, but revenue continues to rise and the firm beat analyst expectations again.
Another important advantage is Salesforce's entrenched market position. It is not a niche provider but a mission-critical system for many enterprises. Replacing that infrastructure is neither simple nor quick, which makes Salesforce a less likely early target for displacement compared with smaller, less entrenched vendors.
AI Concerns May Be Overdone
The rise of AI has become the dominant narrative across tech, and it's reasonable for investors to worry that AI-powered tools could reduce demand for traditional enterprise software or enable cheaper competitors. That concern has weighed on CRM and its peers over the past year.
However, as MarketBeat has highlighted, the relationship between AI and established enterprise players may be more complementary than disruptive. Broader AI adoption could increase the need to manage customer data, workflows and automated processes—areas where platforms like Salesforce could become even more mission-critical. If so, current skepticism toward the stock may prove overdone.
Analysts See Significant Upside
Wall Street analysts are increasingly highlighting the attractive risk/reward. Immediately after the earnings report, several firms reiterated bullish ratings.
Piper Sandler, Oppenheimer and Needham were among those that maintained Buy or equivalent ratings. Needham's refreshed $400 price target is particularly notable, implying potential upside of more than 100% from the stock's current level.
Even investors who believe AI could eventually displace some SaaS functionality may find the timing and risk/reward here hard to ignore.
Price Action Suggests Sentiment May Be Shifting
Perhaps the clearest signal is coming from the market itself. After a long period of heavy selling pressure, Salesforce shares have begun to stabilize and show signs of recovery.
The stock has climbed roughly 15% from its pre-earnings low and, importantly, has not recorded a new low since. That change in price behavior suggests the intense selling that defined the past year may be easing.
If Salesforce can continue to consolidate above the $200 level in the weeks ahead, it could form a solid base for a broader recovery rally. After a 50% decline, this combination of improving price action and continued analyst support may be exactly what the company needs to rebuild investor confidence.
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