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Roger Scott
Wall Street Loves FIGS. So Why Do Price Targets Predict a Pullback?
Authored by Jennifer Woods. First Published: 3/2/2026.
After a stunning plunge following its 2021 IPO, medical and lifestyle apparel company FIGS, Inc. (NYSE: FIGS) has climbed back to a price not seen in nearly four years. The stock has surged almost 260% over the past year, including a 58% gain in the last month alone. The rally has been driven by stronger-than-expected earnings reports and a wave of bullish analyst commentary. Yet despite the run-up and positive sentiment, the consensus 12-month price target sits at just $12.25 — nearly 30% below the current stock price. That raises the question: how much of this recovery is grounded in fundamentals, and how much is momentum? A closer look at FIGS' recent results and price action offers some clues.
Early investors in FIGS saw a quick windfall after the company's IPO, which debuted in May 2021 at $22 per share and, within a month, surged to $50. The COVID-19 pandemic had boosted demand for medical apparel, but as the pandemic eased shares sharply reversed course and, within 12 months, traded below $8. In the years that followed, FIGS remained mostly range-bound in the single digits. After dipping below $4 in April 2025, the stock began another upward move.
Earnings Momentum Sparks Rally
Following steady gains after positive Q1 and Q2 2025 earnings reports, the company's Q3 2025 results, released on Nov. 6, pushed the stock higher. The report showed stronger-than-expected revenue growth, solid demand across core categories, and healthy margins despite tariff-related pressures. FIGS also raised its full-year guidance for net revenue and adjusted EBITDA margins. Wall Street responded, driving the stock up more than 30% over the following week and prompting Zacks Research to upgrade the stock to Strong Buy from Hold.
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Key Points
- FIGS stock is up nearly 260% over the last year
- Strong earnings have fueled the rally
- Stock is trading almost 30% above the average price target
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The momentum continued after the Q4 2025 earnings report released on Feb. 26. The company posted a 33% jump in revenue and its best quarterly sales ever, with revenue topping $200 million. In the earnings call, FIGS noted broad-based strength — including growth in its active customer base and higher average order values — and highlighted that it outfitted Team USA's medical staff during the Winter Olympics. Scrubwear, which accounted for more than three-quarters of net revenue, rose 35%, while international sales climbed 55%. The quarter capped a strong year: full-year net revenue rose 14% year-over-year to a record $630 million, and adjusted EBITDA margin exceeded targets by more than 200 basis points despite margin pressure from tariffs.
Earnings And Outlook Spark Analyst Support
FIGS also issued an upbeat outlook, expecting continued demand partly driven by growth in healthcare employment. The company plans to expand into new international markets, pursue growth opportunities across its businesses, and continue its share buyback program. For fiscal 2026, FIGS expects net revenue to grow 10% to 12%, with improved profitability targets.
Analysts reacted positively to the outlook, issuing a string of upward revisions and rating changes after the earnings release. Barclays raised its rating to Strong Buy from Hold, KeyCorp shifted to Overweight from Sector Weight with a $17 price target, and Goldman Sachs moved its rating to Hold from Strong Sell. BTIG reiterated a Buy rating with a $15 target, and Telsey Advisory increased its target to $15 from $9.
FIGS Stock Pushes Past Price Targets
FIGS' stronger results have been the primary catalyst for the move to multi-year highs. Shares began climbing even before the Q4 report, jumping nearly 14% in the session ahead of the release. After the results, the rally accelerated: the stock surged 24% on the first trading day following the report and gained another 10% the next day. As of March 4, the stock was trading above $17, roughly 30% higher than the average 12-month price target of $12.25 based on 10 analyst reports. That level is well above Morgan Stanley's $8 target issued in January and sits at or above the highest target of $17 set by KeyCorp.
The gap between bullish analyst commentary and lower consensus price targets suggests analysts appreciate FIGS' improving fundamentals but remain cautious about valuation. At its current level, shares trade at a price-to-earnings ratio approaching 90, implying much of the company's expected growth may already be priced in. Investors applauding the turnaround should therefore weigh the potential for further upside against the risk of a pullback.
Ross Stores Proves the Off-Price Uptrend Is Far From Over
Submitted by Thomas Hughes. Date Posted: 3/5/2026.
Key Points
- Ross Stores crushed Q4 expectations, and the details in cash flow and capital returns are worth a closer look.
- Analysts responded quickly after the release, with upgrades and price target hikes reinforcing the bullish trend.
- Management's guidance hints at strong momentum, but the full-year outlook tells a more nuanced story.
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Ross Stores’ (NASDAQ: ROST) stock is in an uptrend, and its Q4 2025 earnings release suggests that trend has more room to run. Along with top- and bottom-line outperformance and robust guidance, key takeaways about cash flow show the company can maintain financial health, strengthen its balance sheet, invest in growth and return ample capital to shareholders.
Catalysts for the stock in 2026 include a notable 10% dividend increase and a 25% lift to the buyback authorization. The $2.55 billion authorization equals roughly 4.5% of the pre-release market cap and represents a meaningful tailwind for the shares. Based on 2025 activity, investors might expect about a 1.9% reduction in share count in 2026 and a similar decline in 2027 if buybacks continue at the same pace and the share price remains stable — though the share price will likely move.
Analysts Buy Into Ross Stores' Strengths
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Analysts have responded favorably, reinforcing the bullish trend. About half a dozen revisions tracked in the hours after the release were bullish, including an upgrade to Outperform and several price-target increases. Although the consensus in early March treats the stock as fairly valued after the post-release pop, the overall trend remains positive, with high-end targets implying another roughly 15% upside.
Other signs of strength include solid analyst coverage. MarketBeat tracks 22 analysts covering ROST, a healthy and growing panel, and sentiment is positive. Pegged at a Moderate Buy, more than 75% of ratings are Buy or better, and there are no Sell ratings on record.
Institutional data largely aligns with the uptrend but also highlights risks. MarketBeat shows nearly 90% institutional ownership; institutions were net buyers in Q1 2026 and over the trailing 12 months, but selling activity rose alongside buying, indicating elevated turnover and potential volatility. The larger risk would be a shift from accumulation to distribution by institutions, which could become a headwind.
Ross Stores' Strong Quarter and Guidance Provide Catalysts for Share Prices
Ross Stores delivered a strong quarter, reporting $6.64 billion in net revenue, up about 12.5% year over year — well ahead of retail industry averages and its off-price competitors, and roughly 300 basis points above estimates. Strength came from comps, store growth and favorable mix, and flowed through to the bottom line.
Despite some margin pressure, operating and net margins were roughly flat year over year, and adjusted EPS of $2.00 rose nearly 22% versus a 12.4% top-line increase, beating forecasts. Management indicated those strengths are carrying into Q1 2026.
Guidance is robust and optimistic for the near term, though management appears cautious about the back half of the year. CEO Jim Conroy said business momentum improved as the Q4 period progressed and that Q1 is off to a strong start. Guidance implies a 7.5% Q1 comp at the midpoint — roughly double consensus — but full-year forecasts suggest some deceleration later in the year.
If Q1 strength persists, management could revise guidance higher. Factors supporting continued resilience include larger tax refunds versus last year and a steady labor market characterized by full employment and upward wage pressure, all of which support consumer spending.
No Red Flags on Ross Stores' Balance Sheet
Ross Stores' balance sheet shows no red flags and adds to the bullish case. Year-end 2025 highlights include stable cash, a net cash position, low leverage and rising equity. Equity increased about 4.3% year over year, enhancing shareholder value while buybacks helped improve leverage metrics.
The price action is mixed: ROST spiked more than 10% in the session after the release but has since pared those gains. The resulting candlestick is bullish but shows signs of topping, suggesting the stock could consolidate or move sideways for a period, with risk of a deeper pullback toward the $200 level before resuming an uptrend.
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