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While they’ve been quietly collecting tickers every Monday morning, some of those picks went on to return 205%... 161%... 127%... 110%.
69 different winning tickers so far…
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Workday, Seriously, It's Time to Buy This SaaS Leader
Reported by Thomas Hughes. First Published: 2/26/2026.
Key Points
- Workday is on track to hit multiyear lows amid a fear-driven sell-off; its stock oversold to deep value territory.
- AI disruption fears are overblown; this company is growing and cementing itself as an AI automation leader.
- Institutions buy as price action declines, and even analyst trends reveal the value.
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Workday’s (NASDAQ: WDAY) stock price decline did not end with its Q4 2025 earnings report; it continued to fresh lows, creating an even more attractive opportunity for investors. While guidance missed the consensus and AI disruption fears linger, the miss was slim, guidance remains reasonable, and disruption may not play out the way the market expects — if at all.
AI-first firms may attempt to move into Workday’s territory by turning models into full HR and finance software.
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But incumbents like Workday are embedding AI into their existing platforms. Because they are already deeply integrated into enterprise workflows and data, they may be harder to displace than the market fears.
The analyst response to the earnings was unfavorable. Jefferies downgraded the stock to Hold and several firms cut price targets, citing the abrupt CEO change disclosed in the release as co-founder and Executive Chairman Aneel Bhusri returns to lead the company through its next phase.
Workday Accelerates Growth and Profitability in Q4 2025
Workday reported a solid quarter in Q4, with revenue growth accelerating sequentially to 14.5%. Revenue of $2.53 billion beat MarketBeat’s reported consensus by 40 basis points, driven by subscriptions, which rose 15.7% year-over-year, and the strength carried through to the bottom line.
Margin trends were also positive: GAAP and adjusted operating margins widened by several hundred basis points. The 420-basis-point improvement in adjusted operating margin contributed to a 32% increase in operating income and a 28% rise in adjusted earnings, a beat versus expectations.
Guidance was the sticking point, with Q1 and full-year 2026 revenue forecasts coming in below consensus. The company still forecasts roughly 13% topline growth in Q1 and 12.5% for the full year, and it expects adjusted operating margin to remain healthy. While the stock may reset after the miss, it is unlikely to stay depressed for long. WDAY’s consensus price target sits roughly 100% above recent support levels, and even the low end of the target range implies upside.
Institutional Support and Share Buybacks Underpin WDAY Rebound Outlook
Two factors supporting WDAY’s rebound potential are capital returns and institutional ownership. Capital returns consist entirely of share repurchases, which are predictable and reduce the share count over time. Repurchases in 2025 lowered the share count by about 0.4%, helping shareholder leverage, and institutions appear to be buying into the opportunity.
Institutional data show this group owns more than 90% of the stock and has been accumulating for seven consecutive quarters, including the first two months of Q1 2026. Net flows in Q1 2026 were roughly $1.15 bought for each $1 sold, a bullish trend. The ramp in buying to offset increased selling suggests institutions are likely to continue adding shares despite the “tepid” guidance.
Workday’s balance sheet reflects the effects of buybacks, acquisitions, and growth investments but shows no obvious red flags. Cash is healthy and flat year-over-year; a decrease in current assets is offset by an increase in total assets. Liabilities rose, compressing equity somewhat, but leverage remains light at about two times cash and under 0.5 times equity, leaving room to reduce debt and improve equity metrics as 2026 progresses.
Catalyst for Workday Stock: Yes, They Exist
Key catalysts for Workday in 2026 include continued revenue growth, improving cash flow, and the potential to outperform near-term guidance. The company cautioned that macroeconomic uncertainty and longer deal-closing timelines could weigh on results. Still, the likely outcome is that Workday outperforms its quarterly guidance through the year, prompting upgrades to guidance and a recovery in analyst and market sentiment. The question now is whether the stock will rebound from these new lows — which seems likely. Trading near $115, WDAY is in a price zone not seen since the depths of the COVID-19 panic.
The AI Land Grab: Why SMCI's Drop Is Your Gain
Reported by Jeffrey Neal Johnson. First Published: 2/25/2026.
Key Points
- Super Micro Computer continues to deliver record-breaking revenue growth as demand for artificial intelligence hardware infrastructure accelerates globally.
- Management is executing a strategic land grab to secure a massive customer base that will rely on their ecosystem for the next decade of computing.
- Super Micro Computer is pivoting to monetize high-margin liquid-cooling solutions that are essential for operating next-generation AI processors.
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Fear has a way of clouding judgment on Wall Street. Over the last few months, a wave of caution has gripped the artificial intelligence (AI) hardware sector. Investors are increasingly worried that the first-layer "picks-and-shovels" trade — buying the companies that build the physical infrastructure for AI — may be coming to an end. As a result, stock prices across the sector have slipped as the market anticipates a slowdown in spending.
But the underlying financials tell a different story. There is a substantial disconnect between market sentiment and business reality, and nowhere is that gap clearer than with Super Micro Computer (NASDAQ: SMCI).
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As of late February, Super Micro stock was trading in the $30–$32 range, well below its 52-week highs and signaling deep investor skepticism. Yet the company recently reported a record-breaking quarter: revenue for the second quarter of fiscal 2026 reached $12.68 billion,
a staggering 123% increase year-over-year.
The company isn't shrinking; it's scaling rapidly. That divergence — massive revenue growth alongside a falling stock price — has created a unique opportunity. Investors are fleeing because profit margins have tightened, but they may be missing the bigger picture. The margin compression appears to be a calculated land grab aimed at securing a dominant position in the next decade of AI infrastructure.
The Cost of Dominance: Why Margins Are Down
To see the opportunity, investors must first confront the downside. In the most recent quarter, Super Micro’s gross margin fell to 6.4%. Gross margin is the percentage of revenue remaining after paying direct manufacturing costs. Historically, Super Micro has operated with margins closer to 12% or higher, so this drop explains much of the selling pressure.
But context matters in high-stakes technology markets. This decline was not driven by inefficient operations or careless spending. It stems from an aggressive pricing battle with Dell Technologies (NYSE: DELL). Both companies are competing fiercely for contracts from the world’s largest hyperscalers — the massive tech firms building AI factories.
To illustrate the scale, one customer accounted for 63% of Super Micro's revenue last quarter. To win these large deals against a giant like Dell, Super Micro aggressively lowered prices. That strategy is a classic land grab.
Why Sacrifice Profit?
Accepting lower profits now can lock in a massive, long-term customer base. This approach makes sense for three key reasons:
- Stickiness: Once complex server racks are installed, switching vendors is difficult and costly.
- Scale: The sheer volume of revenue — over $12 billion in one quarter — creates the cash flow to expand manufacturing and services.
- Duopoly potential: Aggressive pricing pressures smaller competitors out of the market, narrowing the field to primarily Super Micro and Dell.
The Razor-and-Blade Model: Monetizing the Cooling
If servers are being sold at tighter margins, how does the company plan to generate long-term profit? The answer lies in a razor-and-blade strategy: sell the hardware cheaply (the razor) and monetize the recurring, higher-margin components and services (the blades).
For Super Micro, the "blades" are its Data Center Building Block Solutions (DCBBS). The company is moving beyond selling boxes to delivering the entire ecosystem required to run them.
As chips from NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA) and AMD (NASDAQ: AMD) become more powerful, they generate extreme amounts of heat. Traditional fans and air cooling are increasingly inadequate, pushing data centers toward Direct Liquid Cooling (DLC), an area where Super Micro has expertise.
The Profit Pivot
While discounted servers compress margins today, the infrastructure required to cool and power them carries higher profitability:
- The tech: Liquid cooling towers, coolant distribution units (CDUs), power distribution shelves, and management software.
- The margins: Management has stated that DCBBS products have gross margins north of 20%.
- The growth path: These solutions made up only about 4% of the company's profit in the first half of the fiscal year, but management expects to roughly double that contribution by the end of calendar 2026.
This shift underpins the bullish thesis: servers secure long-term customers today, and high-margin cooling and infrastructure provide the path to sustainable profitability later.
A $10 Billion Signal: Why Inventory Is Gold
Bearish investors point to Super Micro's balance sheet, where inventory has climbed to $10.6 billion. In many businesses, high inventory is a red flag — unsold goods that may need to be discounted.
But the AI hardware market is defined more by scarcity than excess. There is a global shortage of advanced components. In that environment, inventory is an operational advantage. $10 billion of ready-to-ship hardware means Super Micro can fulfill orders faster than competitors waiting for parts, a critical edge for customers racing to deploy AI models.
The Roadmap Ahead
The inventory buildup also signals preparation for a technology shift expected later in 2026:
- NVIDIA: The Vera Rubin platform.
- AMD: The rollout of Helios solutions.
These next-generation chips should trigger a fresh upgrade cycle. By stocking components now, Super Micro positions itself to ship on day one. Management recently raised full-year revenue guidance to at least $40 billion, reflecting confidence that inventory will convert to sales rather than gather dust.
A Discounted Leader: Valuation Meets Opportunity
The easy-money phase of the AI trade is over; the market has moved into execution. Investors now require proof that companies can grow while managing costs.
With the stock price depressed, Super Micro’s valuation looks much more attractive relative to its growth. The price-to-earnings ratio has fallen to roughly 23x — typical for a slower-growing manufacturer — yet the company is producing hyper-growth revenue, more than doubling year-over-year.
Analysts have noticed. Firms like Rosenblatt Securities have maintained Buy ratings with price targets near $55, implying meaningful upside from current levels.
The margin squeeze is real and the battle with Dell will be costly. But the growth story remains intact: Super Micro is helping build the physical backbone of the AI economy. For investors willing to look past short-term noise and wait for the higher-margin infrastructure strategy to materialize, the current sell-off may represent a rare discount on a market leader.
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