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Matt McCall
Can These 3 Names Be 2026's Biggest Retail Comebacks?
Submitted by Nathan Reiff. Article Posted: 2/26/2026.
Key Points
- Some of the most promising retail names have had a rocky few quarters, falling by as much as 28% in the last year.
- However, analysts see MercadoLibre, On Holding, and Chewy all posting strong double-digit earnings growth and seeing impressive upside potential in the near-term.
- These companies could benefit from fintech adoption in Latin America, a fast-growing Asia-Pacific market, and expansion into the vet care space, respectively.
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Nearly two months into 2026, several early top-performing stocks have already outpaced the broader market. That's not hard given the S&P 500 is up less than 1% year-to-date (YTD), but big rallies from leaders like Valaris PLC (NYSE: VAL), which is up about 80% since the start of the year, would impress even in a stronger market.
Investors, however, care more about future performance than past returns. Three retail companies stand out for their growth potential: each combines analyst support, favorable price and earnings forecasts, and other catalysts that make them worth watching as 2026 unfolds. So far this year they have traded roughly in line with or below the S&P 500, but their outlooks suggest upside ahead.
A Key Fintech and E-Commerce Player in a High-Potential Region
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A dominant e-commerce player in Latin America, MercadoLibre Inc. (NASDAQ: MELI) is also a leading fintech provider, offering payment processing and point-of-sale services. The company expanded rapidly, adding roughly 7.8 million buyers in the third quarter of 2025 and boosting revenue by an impressive 39% year-over-year (YOY).
Investors reviewing the company's Q4 earnings reported Feb. 24 should look for signs that margin compression is easing. Margin pressure persisted into the second half of 2025 as MercadoLibre invested in free shipping, product development, logistics and other areas to fuel long-term growth.
Tailwinds for Latin American equities — including commodity strength and the dollar's performance — could further support MELI shares. The region's fintech sector remains underpenetrated, and MercadoLibre has a structural advantage thanks to its wide footprint across Latin America. That is one reason management expects the e-commerce business to double in the coming years.
Analysts agree, forecasting near-term earnings growth of about 44% and roughly 50% upside. MELI shares have slipped more than 5% YTD, and 15 of 18 analysts rate the stock a Buy, indicating strong bullish sentiment on Wall Street.
A Swiss Sportswear Firm Keeping Nike On the Run
Swiss company On Holding AG (NYSE: ONON) is known for running shoes and performance apparel built around distinctive sole technology. While Nike Inc. (NYSE: NKE) dominates the category, On has cultivated a loyal following and grew net sales 25% year-over-year in the latest quarter.
On is not only expanding its footwear business but also taking share from larger rivals thanks to strong apparel performance — net apparel sales climbed 87% YOY last quarter. The biggest gains came in the Asia-Pacific region, where net sales surged more than 94% YOY in the most recent period.
Despite potential currency headwinds, On's gross profit margin remains high at 65.7%, reflecting disciplined cost control and a focus on high-return markets. Management has raised full-year 2025 guidance, now expecting net sales growth of 34% YOY on a constant-currency basis.
Analysts project continued growth, forecasting earnings gains exceeding 30% and about 26% upside in the share price; ONON is up roughly 1% YTD. Twenty of 24 analysts rate ONON stock a Buy.
Despite Recent Difficulties, Chewy Could Be on a Major Growth Trajectory
Pet-product e-commerce leader Chewy Inc. (NYSE: CHWY) is down more than 28% over the past year and sits near a 52-week low. Yet autoship sales rose 13.6% YOY in the last quarter, suggesting recurring revenue is strengthening. Chewy has also improved profitability and cash flow, which reached about $176 million in Q3 2025.
Near-term demand could remain muted as consumers grapple with inflation, but Chewy's expansion into veterinary care is opening new revenue streams. Analysts view that as a key catalyst, projecting 87.5% earnings growth next year and as much as 87% upside for the shares.
Chewy's consensus rating is a Moderate Buy, reflecting 17 Buy ratings and 4 Holds.
3 Names to Watch as Homebuilders Near Breakout
Author: Ryan Hasson. Published: 2/18/2026.
Key Points
- Homebuilding stocks are outperforming early this year, with XHB up 17% as capital rotates out of tech and into defensive, asset-backed sectors.
- A persistent U.S. housing shortage and potential rate cuts are improving sentiment and strengthening the sector’s fundamental backdrop.
- Leaders like PulteGroup and Toll Brothers are showing strong momentum, with both approaching key technical breakout levels.
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The homebuilding sector is off to an exceptionally strong start this year. While it lagged behind leadership groups such as technology in recent years, 2026 has brought a sharp reversal in momentum. The State Street SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (NYSEARCA: XHB) is already up 17% year-to-date, notably outperforming a broader market that began the year slightly in the red.
That strength reflects a broader market rotation. Capital has moved out of high-multiple growth areas such as technology and software and into more defensive and asset-backed sectors, including consumer staples, energy, and homebuilders.
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Sentiment has also improved as investors look ahead to potential interest-rate cuts and contend with a persistent structural housing shortage in the United States. Analysts estimate the country is short as many as 4 million homes, in addition to the roughly 1.5 million units needed annually to meet baseline demand. If borrowing costs ease while underlying demand remains firm, builders could find themselves well positioned, with supply expansion meeting durable demand.
For investors bullish on the theme, three names stand out for their relative strength and recent momentum.
XHB: A Diversified Sector Bet
For broad exposure, XHB offers a straightforward solution. The ETF tracks the S&P Homebuilders Select Industry Index and provides diversified access to U.S.-focused housing and housing-related companies, with 86% of its geographic exposure in the United States.
Its allocations extend beyond pure home construction: about 47% of the portfolio is in household durables, 17% in building products, 13% in specialty retail, and 11% in construction materials. The fund is also relatively balanced — its top 25 holdings are closely weighted, with the largest position at 3.7% and the 25th at 2.9% — which reduces single-stock concentration risk.
Technically, XHB has been consolidating in a multi-year range, with support near $100 and resistance around $126. The ETF has recently pushed toward the upper end of that range.
A sustained move above resistance could signal a broader breakout if momentum continues through the first quarter.
PulteGroup: Technical Strength Meets Value
PulteGroup (NYSE: PHM) has emerged as one of the sector's clear leaders, climbing 21.5% year-to-date. The stock has formed a broad bullish wedge on the weekly chart and recently cleared a key pivot high, bringing the $150 level into focus as a potential breakout zone. A decisive move above that mark would confirm a multi-year technical breakout.
Fundamentally, the company remains attractively valued. Shares trade at a P/E of 12.8 and offer a dividend yield of 0.73%, alongside a consensus Moderate Buy rating. In its most recent quarterly report, PulteGroup delivered EPS of $2.96, beating expectations of $2.86, while revenue of $4.4 billion came in ahead of estimates despite a slight year-over-year decline. The combination of earnings resilience and improving price action reinforces its leadership position within the group.
Toll Brothers: Nearing a Breakout
Toll Brothers (NYSE: TOL) has also impressed, gaining nearly 23% year-to-date.
Following a recent rally, the stock now trades roughly 2% below its prior all-time high, a level that serves as a major technical inflection point. A breakout above that high could open the door to further upside.
Known for its luxury residential and mixed-use developments, Toll Brothers occupies a premium niche within the housing market. Even after its strong run, valuation remains reasonable, with a P/E of 12.25 and a dividend yield of 0.6%.
The stock also carries a consensus Moderate Buy rating. Investors will be watching its upcoming earnings report, scheduled for Feb. 17, closely, with estimates calling for $2.06 in EPS on $1.86 billion in revenue.
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