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AT&T's Earnings Glow-Up Can't Hide These Red Flags
Submitted by Jordan Chussler. First Published: 2/28/2026.
Key Points
- Despite being up 12% this year, AT&T’s technical chart suggests its current pullback is just the start of more downside price action.
- Strong net income in 2025 appears to be an outlier compared to the five-year average, while the company’s EBITDA will suffer due to a recent acquisition.
- In the short term, the stock could fall at least 7% before testing its 50-day moving average around $25.46, and potentially further if that support fails.
- Special Report: [Sponsorship-Ad-6-Format3]
On paper, a company that recently turned 141 and increased its net income from $10.7 billion in 2024 to $21.9 billion in 2025 may not seem like an obvious sell.
That case looks even stronger when you consider the stock is up nearly 12% this year, sports a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 12.88, posts a net profit margin above 17%, and operates at a beta of 0.39 — about 61% less volatile than the broad market.
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But for communication services mainstay AT&T (NYSE: T), swing and momentum traders may want to lock in profits — a regression to the stock's moving averages appears likely.
A Combination of Short-Term Technical Indicators Are Flashing Warning Signs
In November 2025, the moving averages on AT&T's one-year chart formed a bearish "death cross." However, rather than plunging after the 50-day moving average (MA) crossed below the 200-day MA, the stock mostly traded in a range.
That changed on Jan. 27, when shares of T rallied more than 25% through Feb. 12, trading above both the 50- and 200-day MAs. During that run, the stock's Relative Strength Index (RSI) climbed as high as 81.89.
The catalyst was AT&T's full-year and Q4 2025 earnings report on Jan. 28, when the company posted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.52 — beating expectations of $0.46 — and quarterly revenue of $33.47 billion, above the $32.91 billion analysts expected.
But that rally was driven by earnings-season momentum more than by durable fundamentals. When a stock's RSI pushes well above 70, it typically signals overbought conditions and a higher probability of a bearish reversal.
That is essentially what followed: AT&T's RSI has been pulled down to about 56.06, and over the same period shares have lost nearly 5%. There could be roughly another 7% of downside before the stock tests its 50-day MA around $25.46.
Short-term traders who anticipated the pullback could have locked in most earnings-driven gains. Those who ignored the signs should pay attention — the company's fundamentals add additional reasons for caution.
Uninspiring Revenue Growth and a Stagnant Dividend Are Cautionary Tales
Beyond technicals, AT&T's financials are less encouraging. Its P/E of 12.88 suggests value, but not necessarily near-term upside.
The telecom's nearly 105% year-over-year increase in net income — from $10.7 billion in 2024 to $21.9 billion in 2025 — looks like an outlier. Excluding 2025, AT&T's five-year average net income is $6.14 billion, more than 72% below 2025's figure.
Revenue growth has been lackluster as well: over the past five years, revenue has declined at an annualized rate of -2.83%, including contractions in three of those five years (2021, 2022 and 2024).
The stock's dividend history is another red flag. AT&T cut its payout in 2022 by nearly 50% — from $0.52 to $0.27 per quarter — at a time when the yield was roughly 7.65%. Management has prioritized debt reduction and balance-sheet repair since that cut.
Longer term, AT&T may find the right balance to restore dividend growth. For now, however, the payout — with a five-year annualized growth rate of -11.80% — is less an attraction for income investors and more a symptom of financial strain that traders should monitor.
Even after the yield reduction, AT&T's net cash from financing activities has been negative for several quarters (including -$8.78 billion in Q4 2025), underscoring ongoing cash outflows for dividends, debt service and other financing needs.
On its recent earnings call, management warned that near-term leverage will cause adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) to decline more than threefold by year-end after the acquisition of Lumen Technologies' (NYSE: LUMN) mass-market fiber business closes — benefits that likely won't materially boost EBITDA until around 2028.
Wall Street's Sentiment Remains Positive
Despite these headwinds, Wall Street remains mostly bullish. Of the 23 analysts covering T, 15 rate it Buy. Overall, the stock carries a Moderate Buy rating with a consensus one-year price target of $29.93.
Current short interest stands at 1.60% — just over 11 million of roughly 7 billion shares outstanding — down more than 14% from a month earlier. Institutional ownership is about 57.10%, below the average for large-cap stocks, but inflows of more than $24 billion over the past 12 months have outpaced outflows of just over $10 billion.
Still, institutional selling in Q4 was the highest it has been in the past three years, a datapoint traders should weigh when considering position sizing and risk management.
Wall Street Loves FIGS—Why Do Price Targets Predict Pullback?
Submitted by Jennifer Ryan Woods. First Published: 3/4/2026.
Key Points
- FIGS stock has surged nearly 260% over the past year, hitting a price not seen since shortly after its 2021 IPO.
- Q4 revenue topped $200 million—the company's best quarter ever—with scrubwear sales up 35% and international sales jumping 55%.
- Despite the rally and bullish analyst commentary, the consensus price target sits almost 30% below current levels.
- Special Report: [Sponsorship-Ad-6-Format3]
After a stunning plunge following its 2021 IPO, medical and lifestyle apparel company FIGS, Inc. (NYSE: FIGS) has roared back to life, trading at a price it hasn't touched in nearly four years. The stock, now above $17, has surged almost 260% over the past year, including a 58% spike in the last month alone.
The rally has been driven by strong earnings and a wave of bullish analyst commentary. Yet despite the momentum, the consensus 12‑month price target is just $12.25—roughly 30% below the current share price. That gap raises the question: how much of FIGS' recovery is supported by fundamentals versus momentum? A look at the company's history and recent results offers some clues.
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I Called Black Monday. Now I'm Calling March 26!
I predicted the 1987 crash six weeks early. I called the fall of the Berlin Wall. I pinpointed the exact bottom in 2009.
Now I'm staking my reputation on March 26, 2026 - the day I believe Elon will announce the SpaceX IPO.
Bloomberg is calling it "the biggest listing of ALL TIME."
A $1.5 TRILLION valuation... the "wealth-building" moment of the decade.
Today, I'll show you how to get in before the big announcement.
Early investors saw a quick windfall after FIGS' May 2021 IPO priced at $22 per share; within a month the stock briefly reached $50. Demand for medical apparel was strong during the COVID‑19 pandemic, but as the crisis eased shares reversed sharply and, within a year, traded below $8. In the years that followed, FIGS mostly traded in the single digits. After dipping below $4 in April 2025, the stock began another upward run.
Earnings Momentum Sparks Rally
Steady gains following positive Q1 and Q2 2025 earnings set the stage, but the Q3 2025 results, released Nov. 6, accelerated the move higher. The company reported stronger‑than‑expected revenue growth, healthy demand across core categories and resilient margins despite tariff headwinds.
FIGS also raised its full‑year guidance for net revenue and adjusted EBITDA margins, an outlook that sent shares up more than 30% over the following week and prompted Zacks Research to upgrade the stock to Strong Buy from Hold.
The rally continued after the Q4 2025 earnings report released Feb. 26. The company posted a 33% jump in quarterly revenue—its best quarter yet—with sales topping $200 million. Management highlighted growth in active customers and higher average order values, and noted the visibility boost from outfitting Team USA's medical team at the Winter Olympics.
Scrubwear, FIGS' core category, was a standout: sales in that segment, which represent more than three‑quarters of net revenue, rose 35%. International sales climbed 55%. The fourth quarter capped a strong fiscal year, with net revenue up 14% year‑over‑year to a record $630 million. Despite tariff pressures that compressed gross margins, full‑year adjusted EBITDA margin exceeded targets by more than 200 basis points.
Analysts Applaud Earnings and Outlook
FIGS issued an upbeat outlook for fiscal 2026, expecting net revenue to grow 10%–12% and projecting improved profitability. Management also emphasized plans to expand into new international markets, pursue growth across its businesses and continue its stock buyback program.
Analysts reacted positively. Barclays upgraded FIGS to Strong Buy from Hold; KeyCorp moved to Overweight from Sector Weight with a $17 price target; Goldman Sachs shifted to Hold from Strong Sell; BTIG reiterated a Buy rating with a $15 target; and Telsey Advisory raised its target to $15 from $9.
FIGS Stock Pushes Past Price Targets
Strong results are the clear catalyst for the stock's move to four‑year highs. Shares began climbing before the Q4 report—jumping nearly 14% in the session ahead of the release—and the rally accelerated afterward, with a 24% gain the first trading day following the results and another 10% the next day. As of March 4, the stock was trading above $17, well above Morgan Stanley's $8 target from January and matching the highest target set by KeyCorp at $17.
The gap between optimistic analyst commentary and lower price targets suggests caution: while analysts appear encouraged by improving fundamentals, many remain wary of the stock's valuation. At current levels, FIGS trades at a price‑to‑earnings ratio near 90, implying much of the company's expected growth may already be priced in.
There are few publicly traded direct competitors to FIGS, but comparing valuations to a larger lifestyle apparel peer is instructive: lululemon athletica inc. (NASDAQ: LULU) trades at a P/E of less than 12. The bottom line: investors are rewarding FIGS' turnaround, but skepticism remains about how much higher the stock can run without a pullback.
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