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Salesforce's AI Bet Is Paying Off—the Buyback Proves It
Written by Thomas Hughes. Posted: 2/26/2026.
Key Points
- Salesforce is well-positioned to benefit from agentic AI, although it is unlikely to see its growth accelerate substantially in the upcoming quarters.
- Growth remains healthy, as is cash flow, which underpins shareholder value and capital returns.
- Analysts trimmed their price targets following the release, but remain bullish on this market, waiting to see how the year develops.
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Slow as it has been to take hold, Salesforce's (NYSE: CRM) February Q4 fiscal year 2026 (FY2026) earnings release shows momentum in agentic AI. Whether fears of AI disruption are warranted or not, the company's Agentforce is leading growth, suggesting those concerns may be misplaced.
While a dramatic acceleration in growth is unlikely, the company is positioned to sustain double-digit growth for the foreseeable future, has the potential to outperform its guidance, and generates strong cash flow.
Cash Flow and Capital Return Highlight Salesforce's Quality
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Cash flow is the critical factor for this stock. As a megacap, Salesforce is subject to the law of large numbers: growth is robust but harder to accelerate or sustain, and expectations are high. In that environment, attention shifts from growth investments to capital returns — which improved alongside the release. The company announced a 5.8% increase in its dividend and an additional $50 billion authorization for buybacks, signaling management's confidence in future results.
The capital-return program is significant and appears sustainable. The dividend is modest but reliable — under 15% of the fiscal 2027 earnings forecast — and on a path for steady growth. Salesforce has paid dividends for just over two years and has raised the payout three times, including the early‑2026 increase. Based on the payout ratio, the company can likely sustain a mid-single-digit dividend CAGR for the long term, potentially putting it on track for inclusion in the Dividend Aristocrats by mid‑century.
Buybacks are larger and similarly sustainable. They reduce the share count and partially offset the dilution of per-share dividend increases. Fiscal 2026 activity reduced shares outstanding by about 3.5% in Q4 and 1.8% for the year, and that pace is expected to continue. The $50 billion authorization would cover roughly four quarters at the Q4 2026 buyback pace.
Analysts Assume Wait-and-See Posture With Salesforce
Analysts' response to the release was generally bullish, although many adopted a wait‑and‑see stance. Several price‑target cuts appeared, reflecting concerns about growth and pulling down the low end of the target range.
The post‑release consensus puts the stock near $300 — roughly 55% above late‑February lows — while the low end suggests a potential floor around $197. Forty‑one analysts rate this stock as a Moderate Buy with a 68% buy‑side bias; only one analyst rates it as a Sell.
Post‑release price action was mixed: early premarket weakness gave way to a recovery before the open. Overall, market action shows a rebound from long‑term lows with the potential to accelerate. Technical indicators, including moving average convergence divergence (MACD) and stochastic readings, point to a price bottom and a compelling technical entry signal for market watchers.
Institutional buying likely supported the move. MarketBeat data shows institutions own more than 80% of the stock and have been net buyers over the trailing twelve months (TTM), increasing activity in early Q1 2026. Over the TTM, buyers purchased more than $2 for every $1 sold; in early Q1 that ratio exceeded $3 bought for each $1 sold — a solid support base and potential tailwind if the trend continues.
Salesforce Outperforms in Q4, Raises Long-Term Guidance
Salesforce delivered a solid Q4, with revenue up more than 12% to $11.2 billion. Subscriptions and services rose 13% (11% on a constant‑currency basis), driven by Agentforce applications. All reported regions saw double‑digit growth, and forward‑looking metrics such as current remaining performance obligation (cRPO) and remaining performance obligation (RPO) accelerated.
Margins were also strong. Revenue leverage and operational improvements, including buybacks, produced a notable earnings acceleration. Adjusted EPS was $3.81, about $0.75 above consensus and up 37% year‑over‑year. Guidance remains the primary caveat: management forecasts just over 10.5% annualized growth, with strength in Q1 and the back half offset by mid‑year softness. The company also raised its 2030 revenue target to $63 billion, firming the earlier "more than $60 billion" goal — a target that could be increased again.
After Cooling Off, On Holding May Be Ready to Sprint Higher
Written by Thomas Hughes. Posted: 3/6/2026.
Key Points
- On Holding’s Q4 2025 results showed strong, broad-based growth across channels, categories, and regions.
- Fiscal 2026 guidance came in light, but analysts largely view it as conservative and still expect outperformance.
- Analyst sentiment and institutional activity suggest support near key technical levels and potential upside.
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On Holding's (NYSE: ONON) share price has struggled amid concerns about slowing growth, valuation, and tariffs, but the selling appears to be winding down. Q4 2025 results were strong, with growth holding up across channels and categories. While 2026 guidance missed the consensus, the company still forecasts another robust year and analysts expect outperformance.
The analysts' response suggests the guidance miss was deliberate: On has a history of setting conservative targets and then beating them. On expects to sustain a solid 20%+ growth pace in the coming year, driven by strength across segments and retail categories.
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Data from MarketBeat shows coverage rising and sentiment firming: 25 analysts currently follow the stock, and there is an 84% buy-side bias toward the Moderate Buy rating. The price target remains bullish and steady despite March revisions, implying roughly 40% upside from a key support level. That critical support sits near the long-term exponential moving average (EMA) around $41.30, where the stock has found support previously.
Support also shows up in analysts' trends and institutional activity. Coverage, price targets, and institutional holdings have all trended higher. Institutions accumulated ONON in three of four quarters in 2025 and in the first two months of Q1 2026, ramping purchases to record levels even as the stock price retreated. That institutional backing points to a durable support base and a potential tailwind for the shares. The remaining question is timing — a rebound could arrive before mid-year. If guidance proves conservative, the next obvious catalyst is mid-May, when Q1 2026 earnings are released.
On Holdings Tanks on Robust Results and Growth Outlook
On's Q4 was about as solid as they come: revenue rose roughly 34%, slightly ahead of consensus. The gain was driven by a 31% increase in wholesale and a 30% increase in higher-margin direct-to-consumer (DTC) sales, supported by 21% growth in core shoes, 38% in apparel, and 117% in accessories. Regionally, Asia-Pacific (APAC) led with an 85% increase, the Americas grew 21.3%, while Europe, the Middle East, and Africa (EMEA) were relatively flat, up about 2.5%.
Margin results were mixed but ultimately constructive. Net income margin declined materially — driven by aggressive investment and foreign-exchange headwinds — but the drop was smaller than feared. That weakness was offset by record gross margins and a 31.8% increase in EBITDA. The early-March selloff followed the guidance miss and stoked fears of decelerating growth and margin plateaus across retail.
On Holdings Builds Value for Investors
There are no balance-sheet red flags for On. The company is well-capitalized and in a net-cash position. Shareholders' equity rose about 17% in 2025 and is expected to continue increasing. On has not yet returned capital to investors, choosing instead to reinvest in growth, but returning capital remains a possibility in coming years.
Key 2026 catalysts include strong apparel demand, durable revenue and margin profiles, a continued focus on DTC, and improving brand awareness. On leverages partnerships with top athletes and its premium positioning to tell targeted stories that resonate with consumers. DTC can boost growth and margins but also risks alienating wholesale partners — a dynamic seen in Nike's (NYSE: NKE) earlier challenges. Additional risks include FX headwinds and the potential for slower growth.
Price action has been choppy since the release: the guidance miss triggered a sharp drop that prompted buyers to step in. Trading since then has shown resistance near the short-term 30-day EMA, which could cap near-term gains. Over the long term, ONON appears positioned to rebound and may accelerate higher once that recovery begins.
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