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Dear Fellow Investor,
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- Amazon: 216,100% since IPO
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To the future,
George Gilder
Editor, Gilder’s Technology Report
Down 41% in 2026, Reasons for AppLovin Optimism Remain
Submitted by Leo Miller. Article Published: 2/16/2026.
Key Points
- AppLovin shares have sold off sharply in early 2026 despite strong revenue and earnings beats.
- Investor fears center on new competition from Meta Platforms and startup CloudX.
- However, the company's growth remains highly impressive, and analysts are forecasting more than 50% upside.
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Of every stock in the S&P 500, few have had a worse start to 2026 than advertising technology giant AppLovin (NASDAQ: APP). After delivering returns of more than 700% in 2024 and over 100% in 2025, APP shares are now down more than 40% year-to-date.
This weakness reflects several factors. AppLovin began the year near its all-time high, but the market has been hard on software names in 2026. A new competitive threat specific to AppLovin sent shares down about 16% on Feb. 4, and the stock fell nearly 20% on Feb. 12 after the company's latest earnings.
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Get the details on this opportunity before the 2026 launch.However, amid this sell-off there may be reasons to consider buying AppLovin shares while they're on sale. Here's why.
AppLovin Posts Solid Beats, But Faces Questions About Meta Competition
In Q4 2025, AppLovin reported revenue of $1.66 billion, a 66% year-over-year (YOY) increase that beat estimates of $1.61 billion. Earnings per share (EPS) rose 87% YOY to $3.24, topping expectations of $2.89. Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) margin moved to over 84%, roughly 200 basis points higher than in Q3 2025.
For the next quarter, the company projects revenue of $1.76 billion at the midpoint, which would imply growth of 52%, and it expects adjusted EBITDA margin to hold near 84%. That guidance beat analyst expectations, but investors were clearly hoping for even more.
Analysts' questions about potential competition from Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META) likely added to the uncertainty. AppLovin has developed deep expertise in mobile game advertising, and it's not obvious Meta would aggressively pursue that niche. While Meta's scale and technology could allow it to compete, doing so would probably require meaningful investment, and the incremental revenue opportunity relative to Meta's overall business may limit its incentive to prioritize this segment. Still, the risk is worth monitoring.
CloudX: A Threat Investors May Be Overweighting
On Feb. 4, startup ad tech company CloudX announced the general availability of its platform, which spooked investors and sent AppLovin shares sharply lower that day.
The concern is understandable. CloudX founders Jim Payne and Dan Sack also founded MoPub and MAX—technologies AppLovin acquired that have been instrumental to the company's success.
That these innovators are building a new product that could compete with AppLovin is a legitimate worry. However, whether CloudX represents the existential threat implied by AppLovin's sell-off is less certain.
In a recent interview, Payne and Sack made several telling comments:
- "I think we can actually bring more people into the mobile ads ecosystem and grow the entire market, and that's where our growth is going to come from."
- "We actually avoid the word 'move' because it is inaccurate to say that we ask people to move. We don't ask people to move. We're looking to be additive."
Importantly, the founders aren't asking mobile app developers to abandon AppLovin. Rather, they position CloudX as an additive tool intended to unlock incremental demand. They say CloudX's growth will come from expanding the mobile advertising market, not from simply taking AppLovin's customers.
Indeed, the in-app advertising market is forecast to grow at a compound annual growth rate of more than 12% from 2025 to 2033, according to Grand View Research, suggesting the total addressable market may expand faster than either company can substantially erode the other's share.
While the founders' comments don't eliminate competitive risk for AppLovin, the panic-driven sell-off suggests the market may be treating CloudX as a more immediate threat than the founders' stated strategy implies.
AppLovin: Growth, Profitability, and Analyst Backing
AppLovin now trades at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio near 25x, a level not seen since September 2024.
The company expects to grow revenue by 52% next quarter and is one of the most profitable names in the market. AppLovin's free cash flow margin of 72% over the past 12 months is the highest of any technology stock in the S&P 500.
The consensus 12-month price target for AppLovin sits near $652, implying roughly 78% upside. The average of targets updated after the company's earnings report is even higher at $670, suggesting about 83% potential upside.
Overall, AppLovin is a highly volatile stock and one that investors should approach with a high degree of conviction. Still, there are credible reasons to believe the company could recover substantially from current levels.
Magic Mushrooms, Hard Cash: Compass Pathways' Trial Win, Fast Raise
Submitted by Jeffrey Neal Johnson. Article Published: 2/20/2026.
Key Points
- Compass Pathways has successfully met its primary goals in its late-stage clinical trials, demonstrating that its lead therapy delivers significant patient benefits.
- The latest results confirm that this novel treatment approach provides rapid relief for patients and maintains significant durability of effect over time.
- Achieving these milestones validates the biological foundation of the entire sector and positions the company as a prime target for major pharmaceutical deals.
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Treatment-Resistant Depression (TRD) is one of the most persistent and costly problems in modern healthcare. For millions of patients who have cycled through multiple antidepressants without relief, the treatment landscape has long been littered with failed promises. This week, however, the sector saw a historic shift. Compass Pathways (NASDAQ: CMPS), a biotechnology company developing psilocybin-based therapy, delivered clear evidence that its synthetic formulation, COMP360, can significantly reduce depressive symptoms in patients for whom other drugs have failed.
Scientific breakthroughs in biotech often come with an expensive reality. Just hours after announcing clinical results that sent its stock higher, Compass Pathways moved to address the financial needs of drug development by launching a proposed public offering. For investors, the last 48 hours were a reminder of the binary nature of biotech: the exhilaration of a successful trial followed immediately by the practical mechanics of funding commercialization.
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On Feb. 17, 2026, Compass Pathways released topline data from its pivotal Phase 3 trial, COMP006. The results removed the single biggest risk in biotech—clinical failure—and the market responded. Compass Pathways' stock rallied roughly 33% during the session, closing at $7.63 as volume spiked to over 34 million shares, far above its average daily volume. By showing efficacy in a large, rigorous study, Compass validated its multi-year effort to turn a psychedelic compound into a regulated medicine.
But the celebration was short-lived. Shortly after the data release, the company announced a proposed $150 million public offering priced at $4.275 per share, about a 44% discount to the previous day's close. While necessary to fund the company through commercialization, offerings priced at such discounts are immediately dilutive to existing shareholders and put downward pressure on the stock. The shares dipped in pre-market trading on Feb. 18 before recovering and resuming their upward trajectory.
Statistical Significance: Breaking Down the 3.8-Point Gap
To understand the market's enthusiasm, investors should consider the COMP006 trial design. Psychedelic trials often face functional unblinding: high doses of psilocybin produce obvious psychoactive effects, which can clue patients into whether they received the active drug or a placebo and potentially bias results. Compass addressed this with an active control design. Instead of an inert placebo, the control group received a 1 mg dose of COMP360—too low to be therapeutic but sufficient to provide a rigorous baseline.
Key clinical findings:
- Primary endpoint hit: The 25 mg dose of COMP360 produced a −3.8 point mean difference in MADRS scores (a standard depression severity scale) versus the 1 mg control (p < 0.001), demonstrating statistical significance.
- Response rate: 39% of patients in the 25 mg group achieved a clinically meaningful response at Week 6.
- Rapid onset: Unlike conventional antidepressants, which can take weeks to work, COMP360 showed statistically significant symptom reduction as early as the day after administration.
Importantly, the safety profile was clean, with no major imbalance in suicidal ideation between groups. That safety signal is a crucial consideration for FDA reviewers, particularly after recent regulatory scrutiny of other psychedelic therapies.
The Six-Month Advantage
The value of COMP360 extends beyond symptom reduction to durability. Many current TRD treatments require daily medication or frequent clinic visits—Spravato (esketamine), for example, involves repeated dosing and clinic supervision.
Data from the companion COMP005 trial showed that participants who responded to a single 25 mg dose maintained their improvement through Week 26. This raises the possibility of episodic care: a supervised treatment session once or twice a year rather than daily medication. For insurers and payers, a durable, episodic treatment model could reduce the long-term costs associated with managing chronic depression.
Ripple Effects: The Tide Lifts All Boats
Compass Pathways does not operate in isolation. Its Phase 3 success de-risks the mechanism of action across the sector. If synthetic psilocybin produces reproducible clinical benefit for Compass, it supports the biological rationale for competitors such as Cybin (NASDAQ: HELP), which is developing a deuterated psilocybin analog (CYB003) aimed at faster onset and shorter duration.
The news also renewed interest in companies like Definium Therapeutics (formerly MindMed). While some competitors target different indications, the regulatory precedents set by Compass—especially around trial design and endpoints—could smooth the path for others and shift the industry from speculative science to a commercial race.
Next Steps: NDA, DEA and CPT
With pivotal data in hand and a capital raise that extends its runway into 2027, Compass is shifting from a research-focused biotech to a pre-commercial pharmaceutical company. Management expects to complete a rolling New Drug Application (NDA) submission to the FDA in Q4 2026.
Two unique hurdles remain:
- The DEA factor: Because psilocybin is currently a Schedule I substance, FDA approval is not the final regulatory step. After FDA approval, the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) must reschedule the drug before it can be prescribed, a process that typically involves an interim final rule and can take additional time.
- Billing and infrastructure: Compass is preparing for commercialization by leveraging new CPT III codes (0820T, 0821T) that allow providers to bill for the extended monitoring time required during the roughly six-hour treatment session—addressing a major logistical and reimbursement barrier.
The Long Game for Mental Health
Compass Pathways has cleared the highest hurdle in biotech: a successful Phase 3 for a novel drug class. The $150 million capital raise, while painful for short-term shareholders because of its deep discount, extends the company's cash runway and funds the work needed to move across the regulatory finish line.
For investors, the question has shifted from "Does the drug work?" to "Can the company execute?" With a validated asset, a clearer regulatory path, and fresh capital, Compass is well positioned to lead a potential psychedelic renaissance—provided it can navigate the regulatory and commercial complexities that lie between a successful trial and a patient's prescription.
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