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AST SpaceMobile Jumps 9% After Government Contract Announcement
Authored by Jordan Chussler. Posted: 2/25/2026.
Key Points
- AST SpaceMobile has secured a $30 million prime contract from the U.S. Space Development Agency (SDA) for the HALO Europa Program, marking the first-ever prime contract for its defense subsidiary and solidifying its role as a key government contractor.
- While the company has seen a one-year stock gain of over 200% and massive year-over-year revenue growth, experts question its ability to meet ambitious goals, including the launch of 45 to 60 BlueBird satellites by the end of 2026.
- Despite heavy institutional investment, Wall Street remains cautious with a consensus Reduce rating and high short interest (over 16%), as analysts weigh recent earnings misses against the company's expanding portfolio of strategic and military partnerships.
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Shares of SpaceX rival and communication services upstart AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ: ASTS) rose more than 9% after the company announced it was awarded a $30 million prime contract from the U.S. Space Development Agency (SDA) for the HALO Europa Program.
The announcement is the latest in a string of contracts that have helped push the stock to a more than 200% gain over the past year.
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The latest federal agreement, announced Monday, Feb. 23, marks the first prime contract for AST SpaceMobile USA, the company's wholly owned defense subsidiary.
AST SpaceMobile Is Emerging as a Massive Government Contractor
Alongside strategic partnerships with companies such as Verizon Communications (NYSE: VZ), AT&T (NYSE: T), Vodafone Group (NASDAQ: VOD), Japanese tech conglomerate Rakuten (OTCMKTS: RKUNY), real estate investment trust American Tower (NYSE: AMT), and BCE (NYSE: BCE), AST SpaceMobile's growing role as a federal contractor is positioning the firm as a major defense supplier.
Details of the SDA agreement underscore the appeal of AST SpaceMobile's ability to deliver rapid, direct-to-device tactical communications using its dual-use commercial BlueBird satellite constellation.
The deal is part of the Europa Track 2 Commercial Solutions program, aimed at supporting the Tranche 2 Demonstration and Experimentation System (T2DES) project, which intends to strengthen the military's transport layer for communications and data relay satellites.
Chris Ivory, CEO of AST SpaceMobile USA, said the "selection for SDA's Europa Track 2 program validates AST SpaceMobile's ability to rapidly operationalize commercial space capabilities for national security." He added that "by leveraging our existing low Earth orbit dual-use satellite technology, we support the government's defense efforts, delivering immediate connectivity with our BlueBird satellites and scaling quickly to advanced tactical use cases."
Previous federal contracts have served as strong short-term catalysts for the company: AST SpaceMobile's shares jumped 15% after announcing a prior Pentagon contract on Jan. 16.
Lofty Launch Expectations Keep All Eyes on ASTS
Despite the bullish headlines, questions remain about the company's ability to meet ambitious 2026 launch targets, which include placing 45 to 60 BlueBird satellites into orbit by the end of 2026.
On Jan. 22, AST SpaceMobile announced that its next-generation Block 2 BlueBird satellite will fly on Jeff Bezos–founded Blue Origin's New Glenn-3 (NG-3) heavy-lift rocket, which is expected to deliver the array into LEO "no earlier than late February."
New Glenn-3 can carry up to eight BlueBird satellites per launch. But in late January, industry publication Light Reading reported that, at its current pace, AST SpaceMobile risks missing its 2026 launch target.
Institutional investors remain focused on the longer-term opportunity. According to filings, roughly $3 billion flowed into ASTS over the past 12 months versus about $502 million in outflows. In the short term, however, analysts remain cautious.
How Wall Street Feels About ASTS Going Forward
Of the 12 analysts covering the stock, ASTS carries a consensus Reduce rating, with just three analysts assigning a Buy. The average 12-month price target of $52.94 implies more than 38% downside from the current share price.
Meanwhile, short interest remains high at more than 16%, or nearly 41 million of the roughly 367 million shares outstanding.
That short position represents a 3.4% increase from the prior month and, at an estimated $4.54 billion in dollar value, is the highest since the company went public on April 7, 2021.
AST SpaceMobile's next earnings report, slated for Monday, March 2, could provide a short-term catalyst that challenges the bearish bets.
When the company last reported, it posted a Q3 2025 earnings miss—its third consecutive—and reported revenue of $14.74 million versus analysts' expectations of $22.04 million.
However, year-over-year revenue growth in Q3 was an eye-popping 1,239.91%, suggesting the company's growing roster of government contracts and strategic partnerships may be starting to produce results.
After a Near 50% Drop, Tempus AI Could Be Ripe for a Rebound
Authored by Leo Miller. Posted: 2/27/2026.
Key Points
- Tempus AI’s post-IPO volatility has reset expectations, but Q4 results showed strong organic growth alongside acquisition-fueled gains.
- Management’s 2026 outlook points to a potential full-year adjusted EBITDA inflection, a key milestone for the story.
- The company’s large multimodal dataset and entrenched testing channels may make disruption harder, even as analyst targets trend lower.
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Since going public in mid-2024, shares of healthcare and life-science services company Tempus AI (NASDAQ: TEM) have had a volatile ride. The IPO price was $37; the stock climbed to about $85 by February 2025, fell to roughly $50 in April, rebounded above $100 by October, and now trades near $54 — nearly 50% below its all-time high. Around the October rebound, MarketBeat cautioned investors that the company was flashing multiple overvaluation signals.
Tempus recently reported its latest financial results, and the stock fell about 7% afterward. With shares down sharply from their peak, the company is worth revisiting.
TEM Tops Estimates, Projects Full-Year EBITDA Inflection in 2026
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In Q4 2025, Tempus grew revenue 83% year-over-year to $367 million, beating estimates. Much of that increase reflected acquisitions, however; organic revenue grew a healthy 33.5%. The company posted an adjusted loss per share of $0.04, slightly better than the $0.05 loss analysts had expected.
Testing volumes in the oncology and hereditary businesses rose 29% and 23%, respectively. Sustained growth in these segments is crucial because more tests not only drive diagnostic revenue but also expand the dataset that underpins the company's data and applications revenue.
Tempus sells test-derived data to pharmaceutical companies to help improve clinical-trial outcomes. Data and applications revenue increased 25%, a slight deceleration from 26% the prior quarter. Net retention for the full year was 126%, meaning existing customers increased spending by 26% year-over-year.
Profitability is also improving: adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (adjusted EBITDA) was $12.9 million in Q4, versus negative $7.8 million in Q4 2024.
Looking ahead, Tempus expects revenue growth of about 25% in 2026 and forecasts adjusted EBITDA of $65 million — which would place the company in positive adjusted EBITDA territory for the first full year in its history.
TEM's Huge 450 Petabyte Dataset: An AI-Disruption Shield
AI-driven disruption may be limited for Tempus because the company has accumulated roughly 450 petabytes of multimodal data that it can use to train its own models.
To put that number in context, data storage company Pure Storage (NYSE: PSTG) — which will begin trading under the name Everpure on March 5 — estimates that, based on about 3.6 billion exams annually, the healthcare sector produces roughly 450 petabytes of imaging data per year. In other words, Tempus's dataset is comparable in size to a full year of healthcare imaging, a staggering lead.
That lead has grown quickly: Tempus's dataset has more than tripled since 2022, when it stood at under 150 petabytes. Much of the data comes from its diagnostics segment — the company performs oncology and hereditary testing — and Tempus says more than 8,500 oncologists plus thousands of other physicians regularly order tests, giving it a strong, hard-to-replicate flow of new data.
Replicating that training dataset would require conducting clinical testing at scale, which major AI labs generally do not do and are unlikely to pursue. Those labs tend to focus on software and agent-based products; having already trained models on coding and other public datasets, they don't necessarily need to amass proprietary clinical data to compete in many software categories.
Tempus is also developing its own foundational model and has submitted it to pharma giant AstraZeneca (NASDAQ: AZN) for review. That model could become an additional, currently underutilized revenue source.
Even After Lowering Targets, Analysts Eye Solid Gains Ahead
The MarketBeat consensus price target for Tempus is near $79, implying roughly 40% upside from current levels.
It's worth noting that many analysts have not updated their targets recently.
Among targets issued or updated after Tempus's earnings release, the average is modestly lower at about $71, which still implies more than 30% upside.
Overall, demand for Tempus's products appears strong, and existing customers are increasing their spending — a sign the company is delivering value and creating upsell opportunities.
Taken together, these factors suggest Tempus shares may have meaningful potential to rebound from current levels.
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