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Rocket Lab Earnings Loom as Neutron Timeline Takes Center Stage
Author: Ryan Hasson. Article Posted: 2/19/2026.
Key Points
- Rocket Lab shares have pulled back nearly 30% from their highs ahead of a pivotal fourth-quarter earnings report.
- Investors are closely watching for updates on the Neutron rocket timeline following a recent test setback.
- Strong revenue growth, margin expansion, and backlog conversion will be key to restoring bullish momentum.
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Aerospace and defense company Rocket Lab (NASDAQ: RKLB) is a week away from its fourth-quarter earnings report, scheduled for Feb. 26 after the market closes. The stakes are high.
Investors will be watching for updated timelines and forward guidance, and the stock has already pulled back sharply from its recent highs. Shares are down nearly 30% from their 52-week and all-time highs, pressured by softer risk appetite and company-specific concerns. With sentiment reset, this earnings report could be pivotal for the stock's near-term direction.
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Technical Positioning Remains Constructive
Despite recent volatility, Rocket Lab's longer-term trend remains intact. The stock is still up more than 1,300% over the past three years and sits roughly flat year to date, though it has experienced sharp selling pressure over the past two months.
The pullback was driven partly by broader market weakness and partly by concerns around Neutron development. Even so, the longer-term structure remains bullish.
On the weekly chart, Rocket Lab continues to trade above its 200-day simple moving average and is attempting to establish a higher low near $65. Since its uptrend began in 2025, the pattern of higher highs and higher lows has not been broken.
As long as shares remain above the 200-day moving average and well above the November 2025 lows near $40, the broader uptrend remains intact.
Neutron Timeline Takes Center Stage
The most immediate source of investor anxiety has been the recent Neutron development update. In January, the company disclosed that a Stage 1 tank ruptured during qualification testing at its Long Beach, California, facility. Rocket Lab noted that such outcomes are not uncommon during development testing for a new medium-lift launch vehicle, but uncertainty over whether the incident could delay Neutron's maiden flight weighed on sentiment.
The company said it would assess the impact and provide an updated timeline during the fourth-quarter earnings call, and that update will likely be the report's most closely watched element.
If the maiden Neutron launch remains on track within the previously communicated window and management provides constructive commentary on testing progress and customer engagement, sentiment could improve quickly.
What the Earnings Report Needs to Show
Operationally, Rocket Lab entered the quarter with momentum. In its third-quarter 2025 results, the company posted record revenue and showed continued demand across both Electron launch services and its Space Systems division.
Investors will look for that strength to continue. Management previously guided fourth-quarter revenue between $170 million and $180 million, with non-GAAP gross margin expected in the mid-40% range. Meeting or exceeding that guidance would reinforce confidence in execution.
Electron remains the company's financial backbone for now, and management continues to target non-GAAP margins of 45% to 50% as launch cadence increases. Rocket Lab also ended the prior quarter with more than $1.1 billion in contracted backlog across launch and spacecraft production.
A meaningful portion of that backlog is expected to convert into revenue over the next year, which will be another key focus for investors.
The company continues to secure government business. On Feb. 12, Rocket Lab announced an upcoming dedicated HASTE mission for the Defense Innovation Unit (DIU) within the U.S. Department of Defense, marking its fourth hypersonic test launch in under six months. That cadence underscores growing demand for responsive launch capabilities.
This earnings report is about execution and reassurance. If Rocket Lab can deliver solid financial results, reaffirm its Neutron timeline, and demonstrate continued demand strength, the recent pullback may turn out to be noise rather than signal.
Alphabet's Pullback: A Second Chance for Long-Term Investors?
Author: Ryan Hasson. Article Posted: 2/16/2026.
Key Points
- Shares of Alphabet have declined almost 8% month-over-month, fueled by broader tech weakness and CapEx concerns rather than any deterioration in Alphabet’s core fundamentals.
- The company continues to post staggering growth and earnings beats, topping expectations in its last three consecutive quarters.
- With shares approaching key support, valuation is becoming more compelling for patient investors.
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Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOGL) has been one of the strongest performers among mega-cap technology peers over the past year, climbing more than 68% heading into the Feb. 12 session. That strength has been driven by leadership in AI, consistent earnings beats and accelerating growth across cloud and advertising.
Despite that outperformance, the stock has slipped into negative territory year-to-date and is down more than 8% over the past month amid broader tech weakness. The question for investors is straightforward: Does this pullback signal early fatigue, or a potential long-term buying opportunity?
Alphabet Pulls Back Following Impressive Earnings
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Alphabet's latest quarterly results did little to justify the recent weakness. The company beat both earnings and revenue expectations. Earnings per share (EPS) came in at $2.82 versus consensus estimates near $2.63, while revenue reached $113.83 billion, topping forecasts.
For the full year, Alphabet reported $402.8 billion in revenue and $10.81 in EPS, marking 17% year-over-year growth. The results highlighted the company's ability to scale profitably while continuing to invest heavily in AI and infrastructure.
Google Cloud again stood out. Fourth-quarter cloud revenue surged 48% year-over-year (YOY) to $17.66 billion, pushing the business beyond a $70 billion annualized run rate.
Perhaps more importantly, the backlog expanded 55% quarter over quarter to $240 billion, reflecting strengthening enterprise demand.
Search revenue climbed 17% YOY, easing concerns that generative AI would materially disrupt Google's core business. YouTube generated over $60 billion in 2025 revenue from ads and subscriptions combined, and Alphabet now counts 325 million paid consumer subscriptions across its ecosystem.
On the AI front, Gemini has surpassed 750 million monthly active users, and more than 10 billion tokens are being processed per minute via API usage — evidence of rapidly expanding enterprise and developer adoption.
The Selloff: CapEx Concerns or Broader Tech Weakness?
Following earnings, shares initially dropped after Alphabet said it expects capital expenditures (CapEx) of $175–$185 billion in 2026. Management clarified that the increased spending will primarily support AI compute capacity, expand cloud infrastructure and enhance user experiences across its platforms. Competing at scale in AI requires sustained investment, and Alphabet appears willing to lean in aggressively.
That said, the recent pullback looks less about CapEx itself and more about broader weakness in software and large-cap tech. As high-multiple growth stocks rotate lower, even fundamentally strong names have been caught in the downdraft.
Alphabet's leadership position, however, remains intact.
AI Momentum and Waymo Expansion Continue
Beyond earnings, innovation continues to accelerate. Alphabet recently rolled out upgrades to its Gemini Deep Think model, enhancing performance in math and scientific reasoning. The model integrates Google Search to reduce inaccuracies and assist researchers in practical applications — another step toward AI utility at scale.
Meanwhile, Waymo is expanding its autonomous driving footprint. The company has begun offering rides powered by its sixth-generation autonomous system and plans to expand service into 20 additional cities, including Tokyo and London.
Analyst sentiment reflects the company's fundamental strength. Alphabet maintains a Moderate Buy rating, with a consensus price target implying roughly 18% upside — the highest consensus target on record.
Is GOOGL Approaching Value Territory?
From a technical perspective, shares are approaching a key support zone near $300, with secondary support closer to $280. A successful hold at either level would likely establish a higher low within the broader uptrend.
Valuation paints a similar picture. Compared to its Magnificent Seven peers, Alphabet's trailing and forward multiples sit near the middle of the pack. While the stock currently trades slightly above its three-year average P/E, a pullback to the $280–$300 range would bring valuation closer to historical norms, potentially tipping the risk-reward balance in favor of long-term buyers.
In short, the fundamentals remain strong, AI leadership continues to expand, and the increased capital investment reflects ambition rather than weakness. If broader tech pressure persists, Alphabet's pullback may prove less a warning and more an opportunity for long-term investors.
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