Dear Reader,
Over the past 25 years, I've made it my mission to speak up when something feels off in the markets.
A month before the dot-com bubble burst, I published a warning essentially saying: "This can't last."
In 2008, I rang the alarm on housing calling the fall of Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers.
I've exposed shady CEOs, market frauds, and financial bubbles before most investors saw the cracks.
Eventually, CNBC gave me a nickname I didn't ask for: "The Prophet."
But what I see happening right now... it's much bigger.
Some are even calling it, "The bubble to burst them all."
And that's why I've stepped forward in a way I never have before... to show you exactly what's coming... and how to stay on the right side of it.
Because if I'm right again – and I've put together all my proof for you – this may be your final chance to prepare.
Click here to see the full details while there's still time.
Regards,
Whitney Tilson
Editor, Stansberry's Investment Advisory
Archer Aviation: The Billion-Dollar Battleground
Authored by Jeffrey Neal Johnson. Published: 2/24/2026.
Key Points
- Major institutional asset managers have increased their equity stakes in Archer Aviation, demonstrating strong confidence in its aircraft's commercial viability.
- The strategic manufacturing partnership protects the balance sheet by absorbing the significant capital costs of infrastructure development.
- A tightening supply of available shares, coupled with high short interest, creates a market setup where positive news could trigger upward momentum.
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Volatility has returned to the electric aviation sector with a vengeance, leaving many retail investors wondering if the flight path has permanently changed. Investors in Archer Aviation (NYSE: ACHR) have experienced significant whiplash over the last 30 days, watching the stock rally to nearly $9 in late January before sliding back to roughly $6.93 in late February.
To the untrained eye, this roughly 20% drop looks like a clear warning sign. However, seasoned market watchers recognize that this dramatic round-trip isn't random market noise; it's a high-stakes clash between two opposing forces.
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On one side, institutional investors are quietly accumulating millions of shares, betting on the long-term potential of the company. On the other, short sellers are wagering against Archer, alleging certification delays and operational silence. The stock is now confined to a defined trading range, waiting for a catalyst to break the deadlock.
That catalyst arrives this week. The market faces a binary window with two critical events: Joby Aviation's (NYSE: JOBY) earnings report on Wednesday and Archer's own financial update next Monday. How those two events play out will likely dictate the stock's trajectory for the first half of 2026.
The BlackRock Backstop: A Floor for the Stock Price
While day traders react to scary headlines, large asset managers focus on fundamentals and balance sheets. In late January, an SEC filing revealed a sizable vote of confidence in Archer's future: BlackRock Inc., the world's largest asset manager, filed an amended Schedule 13G confirming it increased its passive stake in Archer Aviation to 8.1%.
For retail investors, it's important to understand why this matters. BlackRock is not a venture-capital shop that gambles on moonshots; they are relatively risk-averse. For a firm of that size to hold about 8% of a volatile, pre-revenue aerospace company suggests its internal due diligence does not fully align with the bearish narrative. Institutional investors typically have access to data, financial models, and management access that retail traders lack. Their decision to buy during the dip implies they view the current price as a discount rather than a trap.
Supporting this financial floor is Archer's ongoing partnership with Stellantis (NYSE: STLA). This is one of Archer's biggest competitive advantages. Unlike competitors forced to spend hundreds of millions building factories, Archer can rely on Stellantis to absorb much of the manufacturing capital outlay. That capital shield preserves Archer's cash for certification and R&D. Taken together, the presence of these two industry titans suggests that at sub-$7 levels, the stock has a firm foundation.
The Price of Uncertainty: Fear as a Strategy
If institutional backing is so strong, why did the stock drop in February? The answer lies in psychology. On February 11, a report from short sellers circulated alleging flight logs show no recent testing of Archer's flagship Midnight aircraft and predicting FAA certification could be delayed until 2028—two years behind the company's public schedule.
The market hates uncertainty more than it hates bad news. Because Archer is in a quiet period ahead of its earnings report, management has been limited in what it can say publicly. That regulatory silence allowed the negative narrative to fester, prompting panicked selling by retail investors and amplifying the decline.
That dynamic creates a classic market dislocation. Short sellers profit when prices fall, so they have incentives to propagate fear. But it also creates a vulnerability: if the company can demonstrate on Monday that flight testing has continued on schedule, the primary basis for the sell-off would collapse. This controversy raises the stakes for the upcoming earnings call—it's no longer just a financial update; it becomes a defense of the company's integrity and timeline.
Wednesday's Warning Shot: Watching Joby Aviation
Before Archer takes the stage, investors should watch the competition. On Wednesday, Feb. 25, rival Joby Aviation reports results. In emerging sectors like electric aviation, the market leader often sets the tone for the group—traders call this a sympathy trade.
If Joby misses revenue targets or announces certification delays, Archer shares could fall in sympathy before Archer even reports. A weak Joby report would validate critics who argue the entire industry is mired in delays, and that is a real short-term risk.
However, there is a potential divergence that could benefit Archer. Joby has faced headwinds recently, including a Sell initiation from Goldman Sachs due to valuation concerns. Joby currently trades at a premium, while many analysts view Archer as the value play in the sector. If Joby falters on Wednesday, capital could rotate out of the expensive name and into the undervalued competitor—provided Archer can demonstrate execution is on track.
Monday's Verdict: The $2 Billion Question
The main event arrives on Monday, March 2, when Archer releases Q4 and full-year 2025 results. While headline algorithms will react to earnings per share (EPS), investors should focus less on that metric. Analysts expect a loss of $0.24 per share, but profitability is not the priority for a company in the certification phase.
The real signal will come from two metrics: Cash Burn and Liquidity.
- Cash Burn: The whisper number is under $110 million for the quarter. Lower spending would demonstrate discipline.
- Liquidity: Management needs to show about $2 billion in available capital to prove they have the runway to reach commercialization without diluting shareholders.
Beyond the numbers, CEO Adam Goldstein must use the call to quiet the bears. Investors will be looking for three specific confirmations to restore confidence:
- Flight Logs: A clear update on Phase 4 testing showing the aircraft is actively flying.
- Timeline: A firm rebuttal of the 2028 delay rumor and a reiteration of the goal for a 2026 commercial launch.
- Strategy: Details on the new UK engineering hub and the NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA) partnership to demonstrate global expansion and technical progress.
The 17% Trap: A Coiled Spring
The tension between institutional buyers and short sellers has created a technical setup often described as a coiled spring. Short interest in Archer has risen to roughly 17% of the float—about 90 million shares sold short.
But the tradable float—the number of shares actually available to trade—is smaller than it appears. BlackRock, Stellantis, and insiders hold large, largely inactive positions, constraining the supply of freely tradable shares. That creates a precarious situation for the bears.
If Archer rebuts the delay rumors on Monday with positive disclosures, short sellers could find themselves forced to cover. To exit those positions, they must buy back shares into a thin market, which could trigger a rapid short squeeze and push the price back toward the $8–$9 range.
The Final Approach: Time to Choose a Side
Archer Aviation enters this week priced for imperfection at about $6.93. Downside risk is partially protected by institutional support from BlackRock and Stellantis, while upside is amplified by a concentrated short position that could be forced to cover if the news is positive.
Volatility is all but certain. Investors should watch Wednesday's Joby report for early clues about the sector, but the decisive moment will be Monday's update from Archer. If management executes on its promises, the cautious institutional buyers will look prescient and much of the bearish noise could dissipate. This week is a time to watch the data closely, not the headlines.
AI Is Separating Software Winners From Losers, 2 Experts Explain
Authored by Bridget Bennett. Published: 2/26/2026.
Key Points
- The software sell-off looks less like an industry collapse and more like a market-driven separation between AI beneficiaries and AI-disrupted businesses.
- Altimetry’s Uniform Accounting work argues select leaders have been repriced for pessimistic growth assumptions despite durable moats and strong fundamentals.
- Some beaten-down SaaS names may still be risky because switching costs, data advantages, and product breadth matter more than “down big” charts.
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The software correction has been relentless. Charts continue moving lower, and investor confidence has begun to crack. Asked whether this is a falling knife or a rare buying window, Rob Spivey and Professor Joel Litman of Altimetry Research framed the moment not as a collapse, but as a separation.
Litman drew an immediate parallel to last year's semiconductor scare after China's DeepSeek headlines. At the time, fear dominated the narrative. Today, semiconductor leaders sit at new highs.
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"This is very similar," Litman explained. "We are in that kind of an AI productivity boom… it is still a bull market."
The key difference now is that investors must distinguish between software companies positioned to benefit from AI and those vulnerable to disruption.
The Market Is Pricing Panic—Not Fundamentals
Spivey outlined how Altimetry approached the sell-off: evaluating 126 software companies using Uniform Accounting and ranking them on AI durability, switching costs, system-of-record status, and integration strength.
The result, according to Spivey, is a stark divide.
"It's really about separating the wheat from the chaff," Litman noted.
While some SaaS firms face legitimate risk, others are being repriced as if their businesses are collapsing—despite strong fundamentals and durable competitive moats.
Litman emphasized that historical corrections within bull markets often recover quickly. "You're talking quarters, not years, for this kind of recovery," he said.
With that backdrop, Spivey highlighted three software names he believes investors should be leaning into—not away from.
Microsoft: At the Center of AI, Not at Risk From It
First up: Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT).
Spivey was unequivocal. Microsoft isn't threatened by AI—it is powering it. Between Azure infrastructure, enterprise integration, authentication layers, and ecosystem depth, switching costs are extraordinarily high.
Despite that dominance, Microsoft shares have fallen roughly 20% in recent months. Under Uniform Accounting, Spivey argues the valuation disconnect is glaring.
"This is only a 20-times uniform P/E company right now," Spivey said. (P/E is short for price-to-earnings ratio.)
Even more compelling, Altimetry's analysis suggests the market is pricing Microsoft for just 6% annual earnings growth, while the firm believes 14% growth is achievable. With Azure demand constrained not by weakness but by data center capacity, Spivey suggested sentiment—not fundamentals—is weighing on the stock.
AppLovin: Narrative Fear vs. Marketplace Reality
The second pick: AppLovin (NASDAQ: APP), the mobile app advertising marketplace.
Recent fears around "vibe-coded" AI ad platforms sparked sharp selling, pushing shares down more than 30%. But Spivey argues those fears overlook the company's real moat—its data.
AppLovin runs the marketplace used by major tech platforms to place ads in mobile apps. Its proprietary dataset, combined with integrated AI optimization, creates a feedback loop that is difficult to replicate. According to Spivey, the market is paying roughly 22 times earnings for a business expected to grow earnings north of 60% annually over the next few years. Yet current pricing implies just about 20% growth.
For Spivey, this disconnect reflects narrative panic, not competitive deterioration.
Intuit: Security, Ecosystem, and Switching Costs
The third opportunity: Intuit (NASDAQ: INTU).
Shares have fallen roughly 40% amid fears that AI tools could replace TurboTax and QuickBooks. Spivey pushed back on that premise, arguing security, integrations, and ecosystem depth provide durable protection. Are consumers truly going to upload sensitive tax documents and detailed financial histories to experimental AI tools? Spivey is skeptical. Beyond security, Intuit's ecosystem—from payments to budgeting tools—creates meaningful friction for users considering switching.
Uniform Accounting also tells a different profitability story. While GAAP numbers show modest returns, Altimetry's adjustments reveal a business generating returns roughly five times corporate averages.
At approximately 16 times Uniform earnings and priced for minimal growth, Spivey sees asymmetric upside potential.
The Software Names to Avoid
If some stocks are mispriced to the upside, others remain vulnerable—even after large declines.
Litman highlighted HubSpot (NYSE: HUBS) and DocuSign (NASDAQ: DOCU) as two examples.
Both have fallen 35% to 40%. Yet even after Uniform adjustments, Litman says they trade at elevated multiples—roughly 65 to 70 times earnings.
HubSpot's risk lies in its customer profile. Serving primarily small and mid-sized businesses, its clients can switch platforms far more easily than large enterprises with embedded systems of record.
"Without the switching costs, what's the reason that they can't continue to lose against the AI tools that are coming online?" Litman asked.
DocuSign faces a different issue: product concentration. E-signature technology, while useful, lacks proprietary data advantages or meaningful barriers to replication by larger platforms.
In Litman's framework, high multiples combined with limited moats and rising AI competition create unfavorable risk-reward setups.
Separation, Not Collapse
The broader takeaway from Spivey and Litman is not that software is broken—it's that investors must be selective.
The AI productivity cycle remains intact. Uniform Accounting suggests several leaders are being mispriced as casualties rather than beneficiaries. At the same time, not every beaten-down SaaS name deserves a rebound.
For investors navigating the volatility, the message is clear: distinguish between companies at the center of AI infrastructure and those exposed to commoditization.
Corrections can feel indiscriminate in the moment. As this conversation made clear, the recovery—when it comes—may reward those who focus on fundamentals rather than fear.
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