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Ondas Jumps on German Police and NATO Wins—Can the Rally Hold Into Earnings?
Author: Jeffrey Neal Johnson. Publication Date: 2/19/2026.
Key Points
- The company recently secured multiple major contracts with European government entities to deploy its advanced counter-drone technology for public safety.
- Management has strengthened the balance sheet to support aggressive expansion plans and future strategic acquisitions in the autonomous systems sector.
- Strategic acquisitions have expanded the corporate portfolio to include both soft-kill and hard-kill drone defense solutions for government customers.
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During the first half of February, the stock market saw a notable move in the defense technology sector. Shares of Ondas Inc. (NASDAQ: ONDS) rose more than 15%, clearing the psychological resistance level of $11 per share. Trading volume was heavy, exceeding 100 million shares on multiple days, signaling strong interest from both retail investors and large institutions.
The most immediate catalyst was a headline-grabbing announcement: the company's subsidiary, Sentrycs, secured a contract with the German State Police. That deal calls for deploying advanced counter-drone technology to protect the airspace over German cities and critical infrastructure.
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For investors, the contract serves as a meaningful validation. When a major European government adopts a new public-safety technology, it suggests the product is reliable, field-tested, and ready for broader adoption. But viewed in isolation, the German agreement only tells part of the story. It was the capstone of a breakout month for Ondas, marking its evolution from a developmental tech firm to a global defense contractor.
From Israel to NATO: A Month of Wins
February 2026 has been transformational for Ondas. In less than three weeks the company announced major wins across three geographies: the United Kingdom, Israel, and the broader NATO alliance. Taken together, these developments indicate a company operating at scale.
The German Police Deal (Feb. 17)
The most recent win involves delivery of Sentrycs Scout units — portable, man‑packable systems intended for mobile police teams. As drones are increasingly used for criminal surveillance and other threats, police forces need ways to neutralize them without endangering bystanders. This contract confirms Ondas has a solution aligned with European agency requirements.
The NATO Interceptor Order (Feb. 13)
Days earlier, the company's Airobotics subsidiary received a multi‑million‑dollar order from a NATO member nation. The order was for the Iron Drone Raider, a system designed to physically intercept and disable hostile drones. While the buyer remains undisclosed for security reasons, a NATO contract can open doors to additional sales among allied countries.
The $30 Million Demining Contract (Feb. 9)
Earlier in the month, Ondas's 4M Defense subsidiary secured a $30 million multi‑year contract for demining operations in Israel. Covering roughly 741 acres along the Syrian border, the project uses autonomous robots to clear hazardous terrain — demonstrating that Ondas's autonomous technology is effective both in the air and on the ground.
The Rotron Acquisition (Feb. 2)
Kicking off the month, Ondas acquired Rotron Aero, a U.K.-based specialist in heavy‑lift and long‑range unmanned aerial systems (UAS). The move filled a gap in the company's portfolio by adding long‑range capabilities sought after by military clients.
Cash Is King: Ondas Can Afford to Grow Fast
In small‑cap technology, cash is one of the most important metrics. Many promising companies fail not because the technology is poor but because they run out of money before scaling. Here Ondas stands out.
Following strategic equity raises in late 2025, the company reported a pro forma cash position of approximately $840 million.
For a company with a market capitalization of roughly $4.6 billion, holding nearly a billion dollars in cash is a significant advantage. That war chest serves two important functions for investors:
- Risk mitigation: It provides a safety buffer. Even if the global economy slows, Ondas has enough cash to fund operations for an extended period without issuing new equity or materially diluting shareholders.
- Agility: It enables opportunistic moves. If the company wants to acquire a competitor or invest in a new technology, it has the liquid capital to act quickly.
Revenue growth also supports the bullish case. In its third‑quarter 2025 report, Ondas posted revenue of $10.1 million, a 582% increase year‑over‑year. Management has raised its full‑year 2026 revenue target to $110 million. When you combine rapid growth with a strong balance sheet, the investment risk profile improves materially.
Soft Kill vs. Hard Kill: A Complete Defense
Why is Ondas winning contracts over competitors? The answer is its "system of systems" approach. Many defense firms focus on one capability — either detecting drones or defeating them. Ondas offers a portfolio that covers detection, non‑kinetic disruption, and kinetic interception.
Recent contract wins illustrate that diversity:
- Soft kill (German Police): The Sentrycs system uses cyber‑over‑RF techniques to disrupt the communication link between a drone and its operator, take control of the drone, and land it safely. This approach is ideal in crowded urban environments where shooting a drone down could harm civilians or property.
- Hard kill (NATO): The Iron Drone Raider employs a physical interceptor — ramming or netting a hostile drone — which can be necessary to protect high‑value sites such as nuclear plants, airports, or military bases where the threat must be neutralized decisively.
By offering both approaches, Ondas positions itself as a one‑stop provider for government customers: city police (Sentrycs), border security (Iron Drone), and long‑range surveillance or strike (Rotron). That integration creates a competitive moat that makes replacement by rivals more difficult.
Execution Drives Value
The market has clearly taken notice: the stock is up more than 570% over the past year. Yet despite the run‑up, Wall Street analysts see further room to run.
The consensus rating for Ondas remains a Moderate Buy, with an average price target of $17.29. From the current price of about $11.08, that implies roughly 56% upside.
February 2026 may be remembered as the month Ondas came of age. The company demonstrated that its aggressive acquisition strategy can be integrated quickly and converted into contract wins. With a backlog exceeding $40 million, a cash position approaching $1 billion, and validation from German authorities and NATO, Ondas enters the rest of the year with strong momentum.
Investors will want to watch the next earnings report on March 11 to see these headline contracts convert into recognized revenue. For now, the bulls appear firmly in control.
Nebius' AI Infrastructure Rally Is Back—And the Numbers Explain Why
Author: Ryan Hasson. Publication Date: 2/20/2026.
Key Points
- Nebius shares have gained more than 20% over the prior week as accelerating demand and raised contracted power guidance boosted investor confidence.
- Management reaffirmed its ambitious $7 to $9 billion ARR target for 2026, highlighting strong pricing power and long-term customer commitments.
- With analysts lifting price targets and the stock reclaiming $100, NBIS is approaching a key resistance level that could trigger a fresh breakout.
- Special Report: [Sponsorship-Ad-6-Format3]
Nebius Group (NASDAQ: NBIS) has quickly emerged as one of the market's standout performers in AI infrastructure. Over the past week, shares have surged more than 21%, driven by confident forward guidance, a wave of bullish analyst upgrades and BlackRock's sizable bet on the company.
Just two weeks ago, the stock was testing a major support level and appeared to be losing momentum. Now, following its latest earnings catalyst, Nebius is pressing up against key resistance and flirting with a potential breakout.
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With improving fundamentals and strengthening technicals, the company is increasingly positioning itself as a potential leader within the AI infrastructure space.
Shares Climb After Q4 Results
Nebius reported fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 12. At first glance, the numbers looked mixed.
Revenue came in at $227.7 million, below estimates of $246 million, though it still represented 547% year-over-year growth and 55% sequential growth. Gross margin held at 70%, compared with 71% in the prior quarter. Adjusted EBITDA was $15 million versus expectations of $40.4 million, while adjusted EBITDA margin for the core business improved to 24%, up from 19% in Q3. EPS was a loss of $0.69, below consensus of a $0.42 loss.
The headline revenue miss initially raised eyebrows, but context matters.
Management explained that most of the new capacity came online in late November, so it contributed meaningfully only to December revenue. As a result, quarterly revenue lagged expectations, but several forward indicators painted a stronger picture.
Active power reached 170 MW, well above prior guidance of 100 MW. Year-end annual recurring revenue climbed to $1.25 billion, up 127% quarter over quarter. More importantly, management reiterated its ambitious year-end 2026 ARR target of $7 billion to $9 billion, signaling continued confidence in demand.
Revenue guidance for 2026 was set at $3 billion to $3.4 billion, which management described as a prudent baseline. The company also reiterated its year-end 2026 connected power target of 800 MW to 1 GW and raised its contracted power guidance from more than 2.5 GW to over 3 GW.
AI Demand Accelerating, Not Slowing
During the earnings call, management emphasized that demand trends remain robust.
Enterprise and AI-native customers continue to outpace available supply, allowing Nebius to sell future capacity well in advance. In Q4 the company reported nearly twice as many transactions for contracts longer than 12 months compared with Q3, and average selling prices rose by more than 50%.
Management also said the company has effectively sold out of Hoppers, with renewal contracts extending 12 months or longer at improved pricing. That combination of longer-term commitments and rising prices suggests strengthening pricing power rather than softening demand.
Analysts Turn More Bullish
On Feb. 18, Compass Point initiated coverage with a Buy rating and a $150 price target, implying roughly 54% upside at the report date.
A day earlier, BWS Financial reiterated its Buy rating and $130 price target, citing meaningful upside potential.
Those reports add to an already improving analyst backdrop.
Importantly, both calls emphasized that the Q4 "misses" were viewed as timing-related rather than demand-related, with power and ARR targets carrying much of the 2026 thesis.
If the company continues converting contracted power into connected power on schedule, the upside case becomes easier for analysts to defend.
Nebius now carries 11 analyst ratings, a consensus Moderate Buy, and an average price target of $143.33.
Notably, that target still implies substantial upside despite the stock's roughly 140% gain over the past year.
Impressive Relative Strength and Breakout Potential
While many software and AI-related names have struggled in recent months, Nebius has bucked the trend. Shares are up roughly 28% year to date and recently reclaimed the $100 level.
If the stock can continue to hold above $100 and build support, the next key level to watch is the $110 resistance zone. A sustained move above that area could trigger a breakout and mark the start of another leg higher within its broader uptrend.
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