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Deckers' Surprise Blowout Has Wall Street Repricing the Story
Author: Chris Markoch. Originally Published: 2/1/2026.
What You Need to Know
- Deckers' stock jumped after posting record revenue and EPS while raising full-year guidance above analyst expectations.
- HOKA’s high-teens growth and stronger-than-expected UGG sales highlight durable brand demand and pricing power.
- Even with a $110 million tariff headwind, resilient margins suggest potential upside if trade pressures ease.
Investors have been waiting for a blowout earnings report — and it may have arrived from an unexpected source. Deckers Outdoor Corp. (NYSE: DECK) stock surged 14.2% in after-hours trading after the company posted record top- and bottom-line results in its third-quarter report for fiscal 2026 (FY2026).
The gain essentially consumed the upside baked into the company's consensus price target, but that target is likely to move higher thanks to Deckers' raised guidance.
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Discover how to invest in the fund Trump uses to collect this income >>The footwear and apparel company increased its full-year guidance for both earnings per share (EPS) and net sales. For EPS, Deckers now expects FY2026 EPS between $6.80 and $6.85, up from prior guidance of $6.30 to $6.39 and above analysts' consensus of $6.41.
Net sales guidance was lifted as well, to a range of $5.40 billion to $5.425 billion, versus prior guidance of $5.35 billion and analysts' estimates of $5.36 billion.
HOKA and UGG Lead the Way
The results highlight resilient global demand for Deckers' HOKA and UGG brands. HOKA delivered high‑teens growth in the quarter, generating roughly $629 million in revenue. UGG net sales rose 4.9% to $1.305 billion, topping estimates of $1.244 billion.
Those outcomes suggest Deckers is still gaining share in performance footwear while maintaining pricing power in its core lifestyle franchise, even as many retail stocks face an uneven consumer backdrop. The combination of top-line growth and stable or expanding margins is exactly what investors want to see heading into a potentially more volatile macro environment.
Analysts May Be Reluctant Bulls
Even after a beat-and-raise quarter, analysts may remain cautious. Several factors temper enthusiasm: the challenge of sustaining growth at HOKA's current scale, a more normalized trajectory for UGG after years of outsized demand, and a valuation that already reflects much of the company's past execution.
Moreover, while forward guidance is higher, it isn't dramatic. EPS growth in the high single digits off a record base is solid but not the sort of rapid acceleration that typically forces an immediate rerating. Management has also signaled continued investment in marketing, distribution, and product innovation, which means some operating leverage will be deliberately reinvested rather than fully realized in the near term.
In short, analysts generally view Deckers as a high‑quality compounder facing law‑of‑large‑numbers dynamics and macro uncertainty, which limits multiple expansion absent a new, clear upside narrative. That background helps explain why tariff policy — specifically developments tied to the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) — has become a focal talking point.
Tariffs: A Real Headwind, But Also a Noisy Catalyst
On the conference call, Deckers quantified the tariff impact at roughly $110 million for FY2026 and said Q3 represented the largest quarterly tariff hit on a rate basis, with the full 20% burden expected in Q4.
Despite that pressure, gross margin came in at 59.8%, just below the forecast of 60.3%. Strong pricing and a favorable mix indicate the brands have been able to pass through a meaningful portion of higher costs without materially denting demand.
If the U.S. Supreme Court were to strike down or roll back the IEEPA-related tariffs, the most direct effect would be margin relief and the potential for faster EPS growth than the current 7–8% guidance implies. That could drive estimate revisions and give the Street more confidence that mid‑teens EPS growth is achievable again without relying solely on volume gains.
That said, management's comments also make clear that Deckers is already managing a substantial tariff burden and still beating expectations and raising guidance. In other words, a favorable tariff outcome would be incremental upside rather than a prerequisite for the bull case.
Overall, Deckers' quarter reinforces its position as a resilient, premium footwear player: the business is growing, demonstrating pricing power, and returning to investors the kind of predictable execution that can support further multiple expansion — particularly if tariffs roll back or the company continues to outpace conservative expectations.
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