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Wendy's Stock Is Cheap, But Can the Turnaround Actually Work?
By Thomas Hughes. Date Posted: 2/17/2026.
Key Points
- Wendy's is well-positioned to rebound, but the timing is questionable amid competitors taking market share.
- Analysts are trimming targets but remain highly confident in the Hold rating.
- Institutions and short-sellers have the market set up to be squeezed when a catalyst emerges.
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Wendy’s (NASDAQ: WEN) stock has fallen sharply from its highs, presenting a deep-value opportunity for investors. Trading at about 12× current-year earnings and under 8× the 2030 forecast, the valuation implies potential triple-digit upside versus industry leaders. The key question is whether the company can execute a turnaround. Its international growth story remains intact and supports results today, but self-inflicted problems in the core U.S. market are likely to weigh on results this year.
Management acknowledges several missteps and is taking corrective action. The challenge is that public perception is slow to change: the company lost market share to competitors such as McDonald’s (NYSE: MCD) and is struggling to regain traffic. Several quarters of declining U.S. comparable sales, margin pressure, and weak guidance have compounded investor concerns.
Analysts Lead Wendy’s Stock to Long-Term Low
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Wendy’s analyst trends are bearish, drifting toward the low end of the target range. These trends point to another low single-digit decline versus mid-February trading levels, but there is a silver lining.
Not all signals are negative. The number of analysts covering Wendy’s began increasing in 2025 and rose roughly 30% to 26 analysts in Q1 2026. Despite the headwinds, analysts rate the stock a Hold, with a 62% conviction rate and an even split of Sell and Buy ratings.
Analysts have pushed the stock to long-term lows and suggest a price floor near $7, which aligns with those lows. Consensus also indicates potential for a roughly 30% rebound. The obvious question is what could catalyze that move — improving earnings that translate into stronger cash flow and a credible capital return plan would be persuasive.
Wendy’s has already trimmed its dividend and scaled back buybacks; without improvement, the dividend could be cut again or suspended. For now, free cash flow is declining but positive and sufficient to cover current payments. The 2025 free cash flow payout ratio is roughly 62% — elevated, but leaving some room for debt service.
Balance sheet details show reduced cash, lower current and total assets, and higher long-term debt and liabilities, leading to a more than 50% drop in equity. Shareholder equity sits at about $117.3 million and leverage is elevated: long-term debt runs near 23× equity and roughly 0.6× total assets.
Short-Sellers Set Wendy’s Market Up For Rebound
Short-sellers are weighing on the stock. Short interest isn’t at record highs but is near historical highs, about 20% of the float as of late January. That level of shorting makes a sustained rebound less likely until the trend eases — but when it reverses, the bounce could be vigorous.
Institutional ownership exceeds 85% of the shares outstanding, providing a base of support. Institutions have accumulated stock as the market fell, and buying in early 2026 ran about twice the pace of selling, suggesting there may be a tailwind once the recovery begins.
From a technical perspective, critical support is near long-term lows set during the height of the COVID-19 market panic — around $6.82, just under the low-end analyst target of $7. Indicators such as the MACD and stochastic point to an extremely oversold market, and trading volume patterns suggest buyers are stepping in at these levels.
Volume has steadily risen as the share price fell, which indicates bargain-hunting activity. Still, if upcoming results disappoint or show no meaningful improvement, any rebound could be limited and the stock risks establishing new lows, potentially triggering a deeper selloff. Management assumes weak comparable sales will persist, plans additional store closures to tighten the footprint, and has guided revenue and earnings below consensus.
Consumer Tailwinds Can Be a Catalyst for Wendy’s
There are early signs of consumer tailwinds in 2026. Labor markets remain resilient, supporting broad employment, and early data show this year’s tax refunds are larger than last year’s — averaging more than 10% higher than in 2025. That boost to consumer liquidity is constructive for restaurants and other consumer-discretionary names and could help support a recovery in traffic for Wendy’s if trends continue.
Rocket Lab Earnings Loom as Neutron Timeline Takes Center Stage
By Ryan Hasson. Date Posted: 2/19/2026.
Key Points
- Rocket Lab shares have pulled back nearly 30% from their highs ahead of a pivotal fourth-quarter earnings report.
- Investors are closely watching for updates on the Neutron rocket timeline following a recent test setback.
- Strong revenue growth, margin expansion, and backlog conversion will be key to restoring bullish momentum.
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Aerospace and defense company Rocket Lab (NASDAQ: RKLB) is a week away from its fourth-quarter earnings report, scheduled for Feb. 26 after the market closes. The stakes are high.
Investors will be looking for updated timelines and forward guidance, and the stock has already pulled back sharply from recent highs. Shares are down nearly 30% from their 52-week and all-time highs, pressured by softer risk appetite and company-specific concerns. With sentiment reset, this earnings report could be pivotal for the stock's near-term direction.
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Technical Positioning Remains Constructive
Despite recent volatility, Rocket Lab's longer-term trend remains intact. The stock is still up more than 1,300% over the past three years and sits roughly flat year to date. Over the past two months, shares have experienced sharp selling pressure.
The pullback was driven partly by broader market weakness and partly by concerns around Neutron development. Even so, the higher-time-frame structure remains bullish.
On the weekly chart, Rocket Lab continues to trade above its 200-day simple moving average and is attempting to establish a higher low near $65.
Since its uptrend began in 2025, the pattern of higher highs and higher lows has not been broken. As long as shares remain above the 200-day moving average and well above the November 2025 lows near $40, the broader uptrend should remain intact.
Neutron Timeline Takes Center Stage
The most immediate source of investor anxiety has been the recent Neutron development update. In January, the company disclosed that a Stage 1 tank ruptured during qualification testing at its Long Beach, California, facility. Rocket Lab emphasized that such outcomes are not uncommon during development testing for a new medium-lift launch vehicle. Still, uncertainty over whether the incident could delay Neutron's maiden flight weighed on sentiment.
The company said it would assess the impact and provide an updated timeline during the fourth-quarter earnings call. That timeline update will likely be the most closely watched element of the report.
If the maiden Neutron launch remains on track within the previously communicated window, and management provides constructive commentary on testing progress and customer engagement, sentiment could shift quickly.
What the Earnings Report Needs to Show
Operationally, Rocket Lab entered this quarter with momentum. In its third quarter 2025 results, the company posted record revenue and showed continued demand across both Electron launch services and its Space Systems division.
Investors will be looking for that strength to continue. Management previously guided fourth-quarter revenue between $170 million and $180 million, with non-GAAP gross margin expected in the mid-40% range. Meeting or exceeding that guidance would reinforce confidence in execution.
Electron remains the company's financial backbone for now, and management continues to target non-GAAP margins of 45% to 50% as launch cadence increases. Rocket Lab also finished the last quarter with more than $1.1 billion in contracted backlog across launch and spacecraft production.
A meaningful portion of that backlog is expected to convert into revenue over the next year, which will be another key focus for investors.
The company continues to secure government business. On Feb. 12, Rocket Lab announced an upcoming dedicated HASTE mission for the Department of Defense's Defense Innovation Unit, marking its fourth hypersonic test launch in under six months. That cadence underscores growing demand for responsive launch capabilities.
This earnings report is about execution and reassurance. If Rocket Lab can deliver solid financial results, reaffirm its Neutron timeline, and demonstrate continued demand strength, the recent pullback may prove to be more noise than signal.
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