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Tuesday's Exclusive News Nebius' Q4 Earnings Miss Doesn't Change Its Growth NarrativeAuthor: Thomas Hughes. Published: 2/13/2026. 
Key Points - Nebius missed fiscal Q4 estimates, but revenue growth of nearly 547% and accelerating AI cloud demand were the big stories.
- Heavy spending tied to capacity expansion weighed on earnings while improving operational metrics.
- Analysts see long-term upside, balanced against execution, financing, and short-interest risks.
- Special Report: [Sponsorship-Ad-6-Format3]
After its Q4 2025 earnings release, shares of Nebius (NASDAQ: NBIS) pulled back as investors digested the results. The decline was understandable — the company missed both top- and bottom-line forecasts — but the bar was set very high, and underlying growth remained robust. Nebius reported massive revenue gains driven by its pivot to AI cloud services and contracts with major hyperscalers, including Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) and Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META). The critical takeaway isn't the misses so much as the scale of the underlying business: the earnings shortfalls reflect elevated spending to expand capacity, and that expansion is driving growth. Nebius Accelerates in Q4: Guides for Acceleration in 2026 Nebius had a strong quarter, with revenue rising 55% sequentially and nearly 550% year-over-year. The top line narrowly missed consensus (about a 280-basis-point shortfall), but management offset that with guidance for continued rapid growth. Internal metrics — including operational capacity and annual recurring revenue — came in above the company's most recent guidance. The margin picture is mixed. Reported losses widened as Nebius pushed heavily into capacity expansion, product development and GPU investment. Those losses are tied to CapEx and growth initiatives, however, while operational metrics showed improvement. Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) came in at $15 million, indicating the company's ability to generate profits at an operational level. Execution and scaling remain the primary hurdles, but they appear manageable so far. If Nebius' 2026 guidance proves credible, it could sustain that roughly 500% growth pace through year-end. Capacity is sold out as the company and its clients await the build-out of new data centers. Nebius is on track to more than double its existing footprint, with multiple projects in the U.S. and Europe slated to come online this year. Planned expansion includes a new data center in France that, once completed, will be among the largest in the region and strengthen the long-term growth outlook. Analysts Cautiously Optimistic on Nebius Expansion Analysts' response to Nebius' Q4 results and updated outlook has been broadly positive: several price targets were raised, at least one firm upgraded its rating, and a few analysts initiated coverage with bullish notes. They point to the strength of the results and aggressive expansion plans while flagging risks such as project delays and financing needs. Rapid expansion is capital-intensive and could require additional funding, increasing the risk of more debt or dilution. The Q4 balance sheet underscores those risks, showing a notable increase in debt. Still, the company appears sufficiently capitalized to execute its plans without needing immediate additional capital. With revenue ramping and operational profitability improving, Nebius may have room to execute its strategy. MarketBeat tracks 10 analysts on the stock; the consensus rating is Moderate Buy, price targets are rising, and consensus estimates imply more than 60% upside from February support levels. Institutions and Short Sellers Set up NBIS for a Robust Rebound Short sellers are a risk for NBIS investors: short interest is nearly 15% of the float, which could cap near-term gains. That said, institutions are accumulating, analysts are optimistic, and the outlook is constructive — conditions that could prompt short covering in early 2026. If short covering accelerates, it could fuel a rapid rally and potentially trigger a short squeeze that lifts the stock 25% to 50% in a short period. The key technical hurdle is current highs near $135; a sustained move above that level would mark a meaningful breakout. 
Post-release price action was mixed: the stock fell in early trading but recovered from the intraday low, reflecting a blend of caution and optimism. The most likely near-term outcome is that NBIS trades near February lows until a stronger catalyst — such as positive execution updates or better-than-expected guidance — emerges.
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