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Nebius' Q4 Earnings Miss Doesn't Change Its Growth Narrative
Reported by Thomas Hughes. Date Posted: 2/13/2026.
Summary
- Nebius missed fiscal Q4 estimates, but revenue growth of nearly 547% and accelerating AI cloud demand were the big stories.
- Heavy spending tied to capacity expansion weighed on earnings while improving operational metrics.
- Analysts see long-term upside, balanced against execution, financing, and short-interest risks.
After its Q4 2025 earnings release, shares of Nebius (NASDAQ: NBIS) pulled back as investors digested the results. The move lower may have been warranted—Nebius missed top- and bottom-line forecasts—but the bar had been set very high, and the underlying growth remains robust.
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Nebius reported massive revenue gains driven by its shift to AI cloud services and contracts with major hyperscalers, including Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) and Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META).
The key takeaway isn't the earnings miss itself but that the business is booming: shortfalls largely reflect increased spending to expand capacity, and that expansion is fueling growth.
Nebius Accelerates in Q4: Guides for Acceleration in 2026
Nebius had a strong quarter, with revenue up 55% sequentially and nearly 550% year-over-year (YOY). The top line narrowly missed consensus—about 280 basis points—but the outlook points to sustained growth. Internal metrics, including operational capacity and annual recurring revenue, came in above the company's most recent guidance.
The margin picture is mixed. Reported losses widened as Nebius invested heavily in capacity expansion, product development and GPUs. Those losses are primarily driven by CapEx and build-out activity, while operational metrics showed improvement.
Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) came in at $15 million, indicating Nebius' ability to generate operating profits. The main hurdles are execution and scaling; at present, those challenges appear manageable.
If Nebius' 2026 guidance proves credible, it could sustain its rapid growth through the year. Capacity is effectively sold out as the company and its clients await the commissioning of new data centers. Nebius is on track to more than double its existing footprint, with multiple U.S. and European projects scheduled to come online this year. Expansion plans include a major new data center in France that—once completed—will be among the largest in the region and bolster the long-term growth outlook.
Analysts Cautiously Optimistic on Nebius Expansion
Analysts' responses to Nebius' Q4 results and updated outlook are generally positive: several price targets were raised, at least one rating was upgraded, and there were a number of bullish initiations. Analysts point to the strong results and aggressive expansion plans, while also calling out risks such as project delays and financing needs. Rapid growth is capital-intensive and could require additional funding, increasing the potential for more debt or dilution.
The Q4 balance sheet underscores those risks, including a meaningful increase in debt. That said, the company appears sufficiently capitalized to execute its near-term plans without immediately raising more capital.
With revenue ramping and operational profitability improving, Nebius may be well-positioned to execute. MarketBeat currently tracks 10 analysts covering the stock; consensus is Moderate Buy, price targets are rising, and consensus forecasts imply more than 60% upside from February support levels.
Institutions and Short-Sellers Set up NBIS for a Robust Rebound
Short sellers pose a potential headwind for NBIS investors. At nearly 15% of the float, short interest is relatively high and could cap near-term gains. The counterbalance is institutional accumulation—institutions are buying—and positive analyst sentiment, which could trigger short covering in early 2026. If short covering accelerates, it could amplify a rally and, on favorable news, produce a short squeeze that lifts the stock 25%–50% over a short period. Key resistance sits near the recent highs, around $135; clearing that level would mark an important technical pivot.
Post-release price action was mixed: the stock fell in early trading but recovered from the lows, reflecting a blend of caution and optimism. Absent a stronger catalyst, NBIS may linger near February lows until clearer evidence of sustained execution or upside materializes.
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