Friend,
On September 14th, 2023, something big happened.
You didn't see it on the news. They didn't want you to.
The price gap between London gold and Shanghai gold blew out to $120 an ounce.
For years, that gap was a few dollars. Maybe $5. Sometimes $10.
$120 is a 20x jump. In seconds.
That's not a 'glitch.' That's the system breaking.
Traders saw it. They tried to buy gold in London to sell it in Shanghai. Easy money, right?
But they hit a wall.
Why? The London vaults were empty.
The screen said 'Gold for Sale.' But when they went to get it... there was nothing there.
Since that day, gold has hit 53 all-time highs. It keeps running.
I've found one stock set to capture the bulk of this wealth transfer. I call it the 'Shadow Miner.'
The Buck Stops Here,
Dylan Jovine
Mega-Cap Earnings Could Decide the Tech Sector's Next Big Move
Author: Ryan Hasson. Published: 1/28/2026.
What You Need to Know
- Despite strength in pockets like memory chips, heavy weighting in underperforming Magnificent Seven names has kept XLK and QQQ stuck in consolidation.
- Microsoft, Tesla, and Meta's Jan. 28 earnings reports carry outsized influence as both ETFs sit just below key breakout levels.
- Guidance on AI spending, monetization, and profitability from these three leaders may determine whether tech breaks higher or stays range-bound.
The technology sector has gotten off to a sluggish start to the year by its own standards. The tech-heavy Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (NYSEARCA: XLK) is up just 2.8% year-to-date (YTD), while the Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ: QQQ) has also struggled to gain traction. That's notable given the sharp rally in memory chip stocks, to which both ETFs have exposure.
What's holding tech back? The answer mostly comes down to weighting. Both XLK and QQQ are heavily concentrated in mega-cap technology stocks — namely the Magnificent Seven — which have underperformed so far this year. As a result, despite pockets of strength elsewhere in the sector, the broader tech complex has remained stuck in a consolidation phase.
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Earnings season is now underway, and Wednesday, Jan. 28, 2026, could be a turning point. Three Magnificent Seven members — Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT), Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA), and Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META) — report after the bell, and their combined influence on the major tech ETFs is substantial. Microsoft alone accounts for more than 11% of XLK. In QQQ, Microsoft, Tesla, and Meta collectively make up nearly 14% of the ETF.
Both ETFs are also sitting just below key breakout levels. XLK is roughly 3.2% below its 52-week high, with the $150 area acting as a meaningful resistance zone. QQQ is even closer, less than 1% from its all-time high as of Tuesday's close. With technical pressure building, the outcome of these earnings reports could determine whether tech finally breaks higher or slips back into consolidation.
AI-related capital expenditures are expected to be a central theme, particularly for Microsoft and Meta, as investors seek reassurance that spending remains disciplined and growth-oriented.
Microsoft: AI Infrastructure Under the Microscope
Microsoft has lagged both the broader market and the tech sector, trading modestly lower YTD and down more than 6% over the past six months. That underperformance, combined with its heavy ETF weighting, makes its earnings report especially important.
The company reports fiscal Q2 2026 results after the bell on Jan. 28, with capital expenditures front and center. In Q1, Microsoft reported capex of $34.9 billion, above prior guidance due to surging demand for AI and cloud.
In the Q2 report, investors will be watching updates on Azure growth, AI monetization, and forward guidance. Analysts expect revenue between $79.5 billion and $80.6 billion, implying 14% to 16% year-over-year growth, with earnings per share (EPS) estimates from $3.88 to $3.91.
Tesla: A More Challenging Setup
Tesla has also underperformed so far in 2026, with shares down more than 4% YTD. Analysts are bracing for a tougher quarter, and prediction markets imply a relatively low probability of an EPS beat.
For Q4 2025, EPS is expected to be around $0.44–$0.45, with revenue near $24.8 billion, reflecting weaker deliveries and higher spending. That said, investors may look past near-term auto margins and focus instead on longer-term narratives such as energy storage, robotaxis, Optimus, and forward-looking capex commentary.
Meta: Strength Heading Into Earnings
Meta enters earnings on a much stronger footing. The stock has surged nearly 10% over the past week, and prediction markets imply a high probability of a beat. Analysts expect EPS between $8.16 and $8.32, driven by continued advertising strength.
As with Microsoft, capex will be closely watched. Meta's last report showed solid revenue but softer EPS due to elevated AI spending and a tax-related hit. Guidance on AI investment levels and profitability will likely determine the stock's next move.
Taken together, this earnings slate could be the catalyst tech bulls have been waiting for. With major ETFs sitting just below breakout levels, the tone set by these three mega-cap leaders may decide whether the sector pushes to new highs or remains in neutral for a while longer.
The Real Test After Earnings: Guidance and AI Spending
For all three reports — Microsoft, Tesla, and Meta — the initial market reaction will be less important than what results and management commentary reveal about the coming quarters.
Investors will be parsing AI infrastructure spending plans, any clearer signals on monetization, and whether management teams sound confident or cautious about demand into 2026. Ultimately, the key takeaway won't simply be whether estimates were beaten, but whether guidance and commentary support sustained leadership from mega-cap tech and a durable breakout attempt for XLK and QQQ in the sessions ahead.
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