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Tempus AI Sold Off After a Beat—But the Rebound Case Is Building
Author: Thomas Hughes. Posted: 2/25/2026.
Key Points
- Tempus AI is framed as deeply discounted versus analyst targets, with improving margins and guidance supporting a rebound setup.
- The quarter showed strong reported growth and durable retention, with narrowing losses and an improving profitability trajectory.
- Analyst sentiment and institutional buying are portrayed as supportive, while debt and short interest remain the main risks.
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Tempus AI (NASDAQ: TEM) looks like an attractive buy for tech traders. The company is a leading provider of AI-enabled services and infrastructure for healthcare, and its stock appears positioned for a meaningful rebound. Trading near 52-week lows in late February, the shares are trading more than 45% below the analysts' consensus price target — yet several tailwinds argue the gap could close.
Those tailwinds include operating outperformance, better-than-expected guidance, and internal metrics that point to improving client counts and an impressive penetration rate.
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The takeaway for investors is that Tempus may be approaching a profitability inflection, potentially before year-end — a credible catalyst that could lift the stock back toward prior highs and beyond. Volatility may therefore present opportunity.
Tempus AI Delivers Beat-and-Raise Quarter: Shares Fell
Tempus reported a strong quarter, with revenue growing at an impressive ~83% year-over-year pace. The top line beat MarketBeat's reported consensus by roughly 120 basis points, driven by a 121% increase in diagnostics, a 56% rise in MRD, and 25% growth in Data & Applications. Much of the reported growth reflects acquisitions; on an organic basis revenue expanded closer to 33.5%. Remaining contract value (RCV) exceeds $1.1 billion, and net retention tops 125%.
Margins are improving as well. Losses narrowed, gross profit rose 94.7%, and adjusted EBITDA turned positive on a year-over-year basis, marking meaningful progress from the prior quarter. Adjusted results showed a loss of $0.04 per share but beat expectations by a wide margin (about 2,000 basis points relative to the metric reported), supported by constructive guidance.
Guidance offers two constructive signals. First, management expects full-year 2026 revenue of $1.59 billion — roughly 65 basis points above consensus. Second, the guidance appears conservative, suggesting the company could again outpace expectations in upcoming quarters, which would be a positive sentiment catalyst.
Analysts Reaffirm Bullish Outlook for Tempus AI
Analysts largely treated the print as expected, so there were no broad rating changes. Two early revisions from BTIG and Morgan Stanley reaffirmed their Buy and Overweight ratings, respectively, underscoring a bullish bias in the data.
Of the 14 ratings tracked by MarketBeat, eight are Buy or better, and the consensus remains a Moderate Buy. Price targets are tilted to the upside. BTIG trimmed its target but set it at $90 — still above consensus — while Morgan Stanley reaffirmed a higher target that implies roughly 75% upside for the year.
Institutional trends are supportive. MarketBeat data show institutions own about 25% of the stock and have been net buyers since the IPO. Q1 2026 activity was a record, with institutions acquiring more than $500 million of shares — roughly 5% of market cap — and buying at a ratio of more than $3 for every $1 sold. That creates a sizable support base and makes a steep decline less likely. A critical technical support level sits near $50 and could act as a springboard if the market retreats that far.
Tempus Hits Bottom in Early 2026 Despite Risks
Key risks include leverage and short interest. Debt levels are elevated but appear manageable if the company hits its projected profitability inflection. If performance accelerates as expected, the leverage concern should diminish, leaving short interest as the primary near-term headwind. With short interest near 12% and institutional ownership climbing, covering could add upside pressure on the shares.
Technically, the stock looks near a bottom. Stochastic indicators point to an oversold condition, while the MACD shows fading bearish momentum — a setup for a potential bullish momentum swing. The timing and magnitude of any recovery remain uncertain and may hinge on additional catalysts later in the year, such as expanding partnerships, deeper client adoption, regulatory progress, or new AI-enabled product launches.
Tesla's Rally Setup Is Here—But Valuation Makes It Fragile
Author: Sam Quirke. Posted: 2/13/2026.
Key Points
- Tesla has bounced off a well-watched support area near $390, improving the near-term technical risk/reward for bulls.
- Several analysts remain constructive with targets above $500, reinforcing the upside case if support holds.
- The prior uptrend break is still a meaningful risk, and a failed rebound could confirm a more durable downtrend.
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After weeks of sustained selling pressure that began before Christmas, auto-giant Tesla Inc (NASDAQ: TSLA) finally looks like it has some fight left. It will come as a relief for many investors.
At one point last week, shares were down more than 20% from December's all-time high, a sobering pullback for one of the market's most closely watched momentum names.
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Recently, the stock has begun to rebound, putting buyers back in the conversation. Headwinds remain, and volatility is unlikely to disappear anytime soon, but this is as exciting a moment to be watching Tesla as any so far this year. Two points support the bull case here, but one technical risk still stands out.
Reason #1 to Buy: Momentum Indicators Are Flashing Green
The most immediate argument for the bulls is the technical setup. Tesla has bounced hard off the $390 level, which acted as a floor several times last quarter during weak periods when the bears ran out of steam. That level has once again attracted buyers, suggesting it remains a meaningful area of support — one the bears will need to break if they are to regain control.
In addition, Tesla's momentum indicators are starting to flash green. Its MACD is on the verge of a bullish crossover, while its relative strength index (RSI) has begun trending higher after dipping into oversold territory. While noteworthy on their own, together those signals carry more weight and suggest short-term momentum has swung away from sellers and back toward buyers.
When a heavily watched stock like Tesla stabilizes at known support and momentum begins to flip, the risk/reward profile improves quickly. From current levels, the downside looks more defined while the upside opens back toward recent highs. That asymmetry is what makes the current entry point attractive.
Reason #2 to Buy: Bullish Price Targets Reinforce the Technical Thesis
The technical case is being reinforced by continuing analyst support. In recent weeks, the teams at President Capital, RBC, and Stifel Nicolaus have all reiterated Buy or equivalent ratings on Tesla, with refreshed price targets north of $500. From current levels, that implies roughly 20% upside — not bad for a $1.35 trillion company.
That potential gain aligns neatly with the technical thesis. If the bulls are indeed kicking off a comeback from support around $390–$400, a move back toward $500 is not an unreasonable target. This level of bullish analyst conviction adds weight to the idea that last week's sell-off may have been the bears' last roll of the dice.
As its chart will attest, Tesla is rarely a stock that moves quietly. When momentum turns, it tends to do so rapidly and decisively. The current combination of support holding and bullish price targets creates a setup that's difficult to ignore.
Reason #1 to Sell: Valuation Risk Increases After Trend Damage
However, for all the bullish arguments, there is one major concern that can't be brushed aside. The selling that gathered pace in early February broke the uptrend that had been in place since last April. That's a bad look, no matter how you frame it. Uptrends need to remain intact for sustained rallies to form; once they're broken, confidence often takes time to rebuild, and that's a material risk for Tesla shares right now.
This breakdown also feeds broader concerns about valuation. Tesla trades at a frothy multiple, which means investors will be far less forgiving if the bulls can't maintain this uptick. If the current rebound fizzles out, shares could easily roll over, confirming that a more sustained downtrend has begun.
In other words, this is a pivotal moment. The bulls have shown up at $390 and momentum is tilting in their favor. But if that support fails, the technical damage will deepen.
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