Artificial intelligence is usually framed as a software story.
It isn’t.
Every advanced AI system depends on a single physical bottleneck buried deep in the semiconductor supply chain.
Without it, chips don’t scale, models don’t train, and progress slows.
For years, this constraint went largely unnoticed. Today, it’s becoming decisive.
- Governments are reviewing it.
- Technology companies are securing long-term access.
- And the companies most exposed to it are already in plain sight.
We’ve published a short report that explains what this bottleneck is, why it matters, how it shapes the future of AI - and which major publicly traded companies are tied to it.
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Qualcomm's Analysts Are Throwing in the Towel—Time to Be Brave?
Reported by Sam Quirke. First Published: 2/18/2026.
Key Points
- Qualcomm has fallen from early-January levels above $180 to around $140, erasing two years of gains and returning to 2020 levels.
- A wave of downgrades and reduced price targets suggests confidence is cracking across Wall Street.
- But with the stock’s RSI flashing extremely oversold conditions and support forming near $135, contrarians are beginning to circle.
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Despite trading above $180 in early January, shares of tech titan Qualcomm Inc (NASDAQ: QCOM) now sit just above $140. The stock has effectively erased two years of gains and returned to roughly its 2020 price. For long-term holders, it's been a frustrating, bruising ride.
Worse, weak guidance in the company's Q1 results earlier this month reinforced concerns about the smartphone cycle and Qualcomm's ability to generate meaningful growth beyond it. Investors who've been burned by prior false starts appear to have finally lost patience—and it's hard to blame them.
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Adding to the pain, analysts who once largely overlooked the stock are increasingly cautious and downgrading their views.
Still, as we've recently highlighted, this kind of setup can attract contrarians, and a buy-the-dip opportunity may be forming. Let's take a closer look.
The Bears Are Growing Louder
The shift in tone from the sell side has been noticeable. Daiwa Securities Group cut its rating on Qualcomm from Outperform to Neutral last week, Morgan Stanley initiated coverage with an Underweight rating earlier this month, and Wells Fargo has taken a defensive stance—reinforcing the message that investors should be cautious.
Some reduced price targets now sit in the low $130s, implying analysts still see room for further downside from current levels.
The bear case is straightforward: Qualcomm may look inexpensive on the surface, but cheap stocks can remain cheap for extended periods if growth disappoints. The cautious view holds that the stock is already priced for muted expansion; if the smartphone cycle stays subdued or earnings underwhelm again, further selling could follow.
That said, parts of the analyst community remain optimistic. As we'll see below, a handful of firms have recently maintained Buy—or equivalent—ratings, underscoring how divided sentiment has become.
Price Action Suggests a Low May Be Forming
While downgrades make headlines, price action and technicals often provide a clearer read on the immediate picture. Qualcomm's relative strength index (RSI) is signaling extreme oversold conditions, suggesting selling pressure has reached unusually high levels. Historically, readings like this have not persisted for long.
Importantly, the stock has found support since the sharp post-earnings drop in early February. After weeks of consecutive losses, the past week has seen a run of green sessions—a subtle but meaningful shift that may indicate the bears are tiring.
The $135 area, which the bears have so far been unable to breach, now looks like a key line in the sand. If that level holds and the stock consolidates rather than breaks down, the technical setup could flip from breakdown to base-building. Combined with extreme oversold conditions, it may not take much to trigger a recovery rally.
The Contrarian Case Is Worth Exploring
Not all analysts have thrown in the towel. DZ Bank upgraded the stock to a Strong Buy last week, Argus reiterated its Buy rating earlier this month, and Piper Sandler remains Overweight—some bullish targets reach the $200 area.
From current levels, that implies roughly 40% upside, which—when paired with oversold technicals and stabilizing price action—looks compelling to contrarian investors. They don't need Qualcomm to become a market darling overnight; they just need the stock to stop falling. Looking at the chart over the past week, that appears to be starting to happen.
Weighing the Opportunity
There's no denying Qualcomm is likely to remain a frustrating holding for a while. Cyclical headwinds and a chronic inability to sustain upward momentum have repeatedly eroded confidence. But extreme negative sentiment can create opportunities for those willing to take a measured, risk-aware approach.
If the stock can hold above $135 and continue to stabilize, a cautiously bullish stance becomes reasonable. If that level fails, however, the bears may have another leg down in store—so risk management is essential.
From Glass Maker to AI Kingmaker: Corning's Pivot
Written by Jeffrey Neal Johnson. Date Posted: 2/24/2026.
Key Points
- Corning’s Optical Communications business is emerging as a key beneficiary of AI data center “densification” and rising fiber demand.
- Management’s Springboard framework is designed to turn incremental sales into outsized profit growth through operating leverage.
- The stock’s sharp run-up makes valuation a central risk, even as Display Technologies provides steady cash flow to fund growth.
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For the past two years, the investment narrative around artificial intelligence (AI) has focused almost entirely on silicon. Investors poured into semiconductor makers such as NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA) and AMD (NASDAQ: AMD), pushing valuations to sky-high levels. That rush for processing power defined the first phase of the AI boom. Now a rotation is underway: the market is recognizing a simple truth — fast chips are only useful if you can connect them.
This shift has put Corning Incorporated (NYSE: GLW) in the spotlight. Once seen mainly as a cyclical glass supplier for TVs and smartphones, Corning has repositioned itself as a key enabler of the generative AI economy. The market has responded: as of late February 2026, Corning's stock traded near all-time highs around $143.96, up roughly 54% over the prior 30 days.
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To understand Corning's surge, investors need to grasp how modern AI computing is wired. Generative AI data centers operate differently from the cloud servers of the past decade.
Traditional cloud computing relies on separate servers that handle storage or web hosting. Generative AI training requires thousands of Graphics Processing Units (GPUs) to work together as a single, tightly coupled supercomputer to train large language models (LLMs).
That architecture demands densification. To link GPU clusters for high-speed processing, AI data centers need up to ten times the fiber-optic connections of traditional facilities. Data cannot move between chips fast enough over old copper wiring; it requires the speed of light provided by optical glass. This technical shift creates a massive, secular tailwind for Corning's Optical Communications segment.
The demand is visible in major commercial agreements. In late January 2026, Corning announced a multi-year agreement with Meta Platforms. Potentially worth up to $6 billion, the deal names Corning as a primary supplier of the optical cable Meta needs for its generative AI infrastructure.
The trend already shows up in Corning's financials. In the fourth quarter of 2025, the Optical Communications segment posted a record performance:
- Segment sales: Reached $1.7 billion, up 24% year over year.
- Segment net income: Rose 57% year over year.
The direct translation of data center densification into revenue validates the core investment thesis: infrastructure is the critical next phase of the AI trade.
Using What You Have: Turning Sales into Profit
Revenue growth matters, but Corning's management is focused on converting those sales into durable profits. That strategy is formalized in a program called Springboard.
Springboard is straightforward: increase output using existing factories and equipment. In manufacturing, the largest cost is usually building plants and installing machinery (capital expenditures). Corning has already made those investments. With fixed costs largely covered, the incremental cost to produce additional fiber is comparatively low.
That dynamic creates high flow-through, or operational leverage — as sales rise, profits expand faster than revenue. Corning recently raised the targets for Springboard, signaling strong confidence that this leverage will continue.
- Long-term goal: Add $11 billion in incremental annualized sales by the end of 2028 (up from an initial $8 billion target).
- Near-term goal: Add $6.5 billion in incremental sales by the end of 2026.
Execution is showing results. In Q4 2025, Corning reached an operating margin of 20.2%, hitting its 20% margin target a year ahead of schedule. Full-year 2025 earnings per share (EPS) rose to $2.52, a 29% increase from the prior year, and free cash flow nearly doubled from 2023 levels to $1.72 billion in 2025. These metrics indicate the Springboard plan's operational leverage is working.
The Path to $11 Billion: How Display Funds AI
With the stock up more than 50% in a month, valuation is an important consideration. Corning is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of about 78x — a meaningful premium to its historical range when it was typically seen as a slower-growth industrial.
That premium reflects investors paying for high visibility into future earnings growth under Springboard. The market is pricing in near-flawless execution, but Corning has a built-in safety net: its Display Technologies segment. While Optical drives rapid growth, Display (glass for TVs and monitors) remains a steady cash generator.
Despite currency headwinds — notably a weak Japanese yen — Corning has insulated Display profits. The company implemented double-digit price increases in late 2024 and uses hedging programs through 2030, which has helped secure segment net income in the $900 million to $950 million range. That predictable cash flow helps fund the AI infrastructure build-out without excessive leverage or shareholder dilution.
Management's guidance supports continued momentum: for Q1 2026, sales are projected between $4.2 billion and $4.3 billion. This acceleration reinforces the case that the AI infrastructure build-out is still early and that the $11 billion incremental-sales target is attainable.
Positioning for the Infrastructure Boom
Corning has shifted from a cyclical materials company to a critical provider of AI infrastructure. It is no longer just selling glass; it is selling the connectivity that next-generation computing requires. Springboard is producing measurable results, with expanding margins and rising cash flow.
With major tech customers like Meta committing billions and management raising long-term targets through 2028, Corning presents a compelling growth narrative. The current valuation warrants careful analysis, but the company's fundamentals and execution suggest it is well positioned to deliver long-term value as the AI economy scales.
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