Monday, February 23, 2026

The $20 Trillion Discovery Beneath the Waves

Dear Reader,

A historic shift just took place beneath the surface of America’s economy…

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Here’s to the future,
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Additional Reading from MarketBeat.com

5 Software Stocks That Look Too Cheap to Ignore

Written by Ryan Hasson. Article Posted: 2/16/2026.

Computer monitor with a red plunging chart arrow on a desk, symbolizing software stocks selloff amid AI fears.

Key Points

  • Software stocks have plunged into bear-market territory, resetting valuations across the sector amid fears of AI.
  • Investor fears that rapid AI advancements could disrupt traditional software giants and SaaS models.
  • With sentiment deeply negative and earnings multiples well below historical norms, select software names fully embracing AI could offer compelling long-term opportunities.
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One of the biggest stories in the market so far this year, if not the biggest, has been the rapid decline in software stocks.

Coming out of the 2022 bear market, software names were among the strongest performers in the entire equity market. From the start of 2023 through the highs of 2025, software stocks, represented by the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (BATS: IGV), surged more than 100%. Many leading individual names didn't just outperform the benchmark; they doubled or even tripled its return.

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But that momentum has shifted — and abruptly.

The sector is no longer in a bull market. It has entered a correction so deep that it now sits firmly in bear market territory. IGV has fallen roughly 30% from its 52-week high and is nearly 22% lower year-to-date. That kind of move does not just shake confidence; it resets valuations.

As a result, many high-quality software companies are now trading well below their historical earnings multiples.

Before diving into five software names that now look too cheap to ignore, it is worth asking what triggered the selloff in the first place.

AI Disruption Pushes Software into a Bear Market

The rapid advancement of artificial intelligence has led investors to question whether traditional software, particularly Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) models, could face structural disruption. Over the past year, AI leaders such as OpenAI, Anthropic, and Alphabet have rolled out increasingly sophisticated models capable of coding, video generation, research, and task automation.

These tools are not theoretical — they are functional. And that has created real anxiety for the software industry.

AI agents capable of handling both technical and non-technical workflows have led investors to wonder whether some SaaS providers could be bypassed entirely. The market's message has been clear: software companies must integrate AI quickly, or risk irrelevance.

But as with most sharp selloffs, fear often overshoots reality.

The companies below have felt the brunt of that fear, and in many cases their valuations now reflect worst-case scenarios rather than balanced outcomes.

Salesforce: AI Headwinds, or AI Opportunity?

Salesforce (NYSE: CRM) has been one of the hardest-hit large-cap software names. Shares have fallen more than 42% from their 52-week high and are down nearly 29% year-to-date.

The irony is that Salesforce pioneered the SaaS customer relationship management (CRM) model and built a broad cloud-first ecosystem spanning sales, service, marketing, commerce, and analytics.

Yet that very SaaS positioning is what has made investors nervous in the AI era. The concern is that AI agents could compress traditional subscription models. Still, analysts appear to disagree with the severity of the selloff. Based on 43 ratings, Salesforce holds a Moderate Buy consensus, with a price target implying nearly 71% upside.

Several firms, including Goldman Sachs, have highlighted AI-driven growth via Salesforce's Agentforce platform as a potential inflection point. Agentforce allows customers to build and customize AI-powered agents through a low-code interface, fully integrated within Salesforce's ecosystem. The key point: Salesforce is not ignoring AI — it is embedding it.

For long-term investors who believe the company can leverage AI rather than be displaced by it, the current forward P/E of 14.4 is notable.

Dropbox: Value Trap or Deep Value?

Dropbox (NASDAQ: DBX) has faced steady selling pressure over the past four months. Shares are down 26% from their 52-week high and nearly 12% year-to-date, producing a forward P/E of just 8. By almost any measure, that looks like value territory — but the question is whether it's justified or a value trap.

Dropbox operates in cloud-based file storage, precisely the area investors fear AI could commoditize. Management has acknowledged the challenge and says the company is transitioning from a traditional storage platform to an AI-powered platform for productivity and content intelligence.

Products such as Dropbox Dash, Dropbox AI, and Dropbox Studio are part of that shift. The aim is to reduce time spent searching, organizing, and managing content, turning storage into intelligence.

Analyst sentiment remains largely neutral as the company navigates this transformation. However, the consensus price target of $31.33 implies nearly 30% upside, suggesting the selloff may have overshot reality or at least opened the door for a relief rally. At eight times forward earnings, modest improvement in execution could materially support the stock.

Adobe: Oversold on AI Fears?

Adobe (NASDAQ: ADBE) has been one of the most punished mega-cap software stocks. Shares are down 43% from their 52-week high and nearly 25% year-to-date. The primary concern has been generative AI competition; tools such as OpenAI's Sora have raised fears that lower-cost alternatives could erode Adobe's creative dominance.

Adobe's response has been decisive.

Through Adobe Firefly, the company has introduced a commercially safe generative AI model trained on licensed data. More importantly, AI is not being bolted on as a separate tool — it is deeply integrated into Photoshop, Illustrator, Premiere Pro, and Express. That integration matters because creative professionals want AI embedded within trusted workflows, not stand-alone substitutes.

While analyst sentiment is neutral, with a consensus Hold rating, Adobe's forward P/E of 10 places the stock in attractive value territory for investors who believe the company can maintain its leadership.

Oracle: AI Spending Anxiety Meets Opportunity

Oracle (NYSE: ORCL) has also been swept up in the AI narrative, but for different reasons. Since October 2025, shares have fallen more than 53% from their 52-week high and are down nearly 18% year-to-date.

Investors have grown uneasy about massive, debt-funded capital expenditures tied to AI data centers and Oracle Cloud Infrastructure. The widely discussed multi-year OpenAI deal, reportedly valued at nearly $300 billion over five years, has fueled both optimism and skepticism.

There are many questions about timing, execution, and near-term returns on AI infrastructure investments, and after the stock's rapid rise in recent years, expectations were very high.

Technically, the stock recently attempted to bottom near $140 and is trading just below its 20-day moving average. A reclaim of that level could signal the first step toward stabilizing the downtrend. Fundamentally, Oracle continues to secure public-sector deals. The City of Atlanta recently expanded its relationship, adopting Oracle Permitting and Licensing along with Oracle AI Agent Studio, and ReGrow Israel selected Oracle's Agriculture Data Intelligence platform as part of the Oracle Digital Government Suite.

Analysts remain broadly bullish, with a Moderate Buy consensus and a price target implying over 80% upside potential. Institutions have maintained net positive inflows into Oracle over the past 12 months. With sentiment broadly negative toward the sector while Wall Street stays constructive, Oracle may be setting up for a relief rally.

IGV: A Diversified Approach

Not every investor wants the volatility of picking individual names. For those who think the software selloff may be overdone but prefer diversified exposure, the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) offers a compelling alternative.

The ETF provides targeted exposure to North American software companies across the technology and communication services sectors. As of February 13, IGV holds 114 stocks and trades at a P/E of 34.

Its top five holdings — Microsoft, Oracle, Palantir, Salesforce, and Palo Alto Networks — account for nearly 38% of the fund's weighting.

From a technical standpoint, IGV recently found support near $80, a level that aligns with multi-year weekly support. If that zone holds, it could represent a meaningful long-term entry point for investors who believe the software correction has gone too far.

Why This Reset May Be an Opportunity

Software stocks were market outperformers for nearly two years; now they are among the biggest laggards.

Bear markets within sectors often create opportunity, particularly when driven by fear of disruption rather than collapsing fundamentals. AI is not just a threat — for many of these companies it could be an accelerator. The winners will be those that embrace AI, integrate it effectively, and retain or grow market share.

Salesforce, Dropbox, Adobe, Oracle, and IGV each represent different ways to play the same theme: valuations have compressed meaningfully and expectations have reset. The key question is not whether AI will reshape the industry — it will. The real question is which companies adapt quickly enough to thrive in the next cycle.


 

Additional Reading from MarketBeat.com

3 Massive Buybacks That Map the Market's Mood in 2026

Written by Leo Miller. Article Posted: 2/9/2026.

Stacks of cash beside an upward arrow and market charts, highlighting corporate share buybacks surge and stock support.

Key Points

  • After an epic run in 2025 and a great start to 2026, Western Digital is adding substantial buyback capacity.
  • PepsiCo is making key changes to its business and supporting its outlook with a new $10 billion share repurchase program.
  • As markets have hit ServiceNow shares hard, the company plans to take advantage of the weakness through a large accelerated repurchase plan.
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Some of the biggest stocks in the technology and consumer staples sectors are kicking off 2026 with notable buyback programs, including Western Digital (NASDAQ: WDC), one of the market's best-performing names in 2025.

PepsiCo (NASDAQ: PEP) is also boosting its buyback capacity as the firm looks to improve its cost structure and generate renewed interest from consumers.

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Lastly, software giant ServiceNow (NYSE: NOW) has seen its stock price fall sharply in recent months. However, with fundamentals remaining solid, the company is signaling confidence with its latest buyback announcement.

Western Digital Announces $4 Billion Buyback Program After Monstrous Gains

Driven by shortages in the memory chip market, shares of hard-disk drive maker Western Digital have gone parabolic. The stock delivered a total return of 284% in 2025, making Western Digital the best-performing name in the S&P 500. In 2026, WDC has not slowed down, already up more than 60%.

On Feb. 3, the company signaled further confidence, announcing a $4 billion share buyback program. This adds to the $484 million remaining under its previous authorization, bringing total buyback capacity to $4.484 billion — roughly 4.1% of its $96 billion market capitalization.

Western Digital's shares outstanding fell about 2% in 2025. The new program is twice as large as the prior $2 billion authorization, suggesting buybacks could continue.

In its latest earnings call, WDC said it has already booked demand from its seven largest customers for 2026 and has commercial agreements with three of its top five customers for 2027 — a tight supply/demand backdrop that supports the near-term outlook.

Pepsi's Refresh Comes With Strong Buyback Capacity on Its Side

PepsiCo is up nearly 19% in 2026. The consumer staples sector has been a big winner early in the year: the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSEARCA: XLP), a proxy for the sector's performance, has delivered a total return of 13%.

Pepsi's latest earnings were solid, and management highlighted efforts to streamline distribution — which it called "very positive" — and to refocus its snack portfolio on top brands while appealing to consumers seeking healthier, more affordable options. The firm also outlined strategic initiatives to drive efficiency and growth.

Pepsi authorized a new $10 billion share buyback program — about 4.3% of its roughly $233 billion market capitalization.

After remaining relatively flat from 2021 to 2024, Pepsi's shares outstanding fell about 1.5% in 2025. With a large buyback authorization, a solid 3.3% dividend yield, and early signs of operational improvement, Pepsi's outlook looks constructive.

ServiceNow Plans Swift Buyback Action as Shares Tank

Over the past three months, few large-cap stocks have taken as severe a hit as ServiceNow. Shares are down more than 40%, placing ServiceNow among the bottom five performers in the S&P 500 during that period. Investor concerns that emerging artificial intelligence tools may displace incumbent software providers have driven much of the decline.

Despite the selloff, ServiceNow beat sales and adjusted EPS estimates in its latest earnings report. While it expects a modest growth slowdown in 2026, it projects operating margin and free cash flow margin to increase by 100 basis points.

Amid the share-price decline, the company authorized a $5 billion buyback, adding to $1.4 billion of remaining capacity — $6.4 billion total, or about 6.1% of its $105 billion market capitalization.

ServiceNow plans to use $2 billion of the authorization for an accelerated share repurchase (ASR), allowing it to buy back stock quickly and capitalize on the lower share price — a clear vote of confidence.

Analysts Remain Steadfast Despite NOW's Slide

ServiceNow is the standout in this group: its fundamentals remain strong and analysts continue to show support. The MarketBeat consensus price target of about $193 implies roughly 91% upside. The average of targets updated after NOW's Jan. 28 earnings report is around $182, implying roughly 81% upside.


 

 
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