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Qualcomm's Analysts Are Throwing in the Towel—Time to Be Brave?
Submitted by Sam Quirke. Originally Published: 2/18/2026.
What You Need to Know
- Qualcomm has fallen from early-January levels above $180 to around $140, erasing two years of gains and returning to 2020 levels.
- A wave of downgrades and reduced price targets suggests confidence is cracking across Wall Street.
- But with the stock’s RSI flashing extremely oversold conditions and support forming near $135, contrarians are beginning to circle.
Despite trading above $180 in the first week of January, shares of tech titan Qualcomm Inc (NASDAQ: QCOM) now trade just above $140. The stock has roughly erased two years of gains and is back near its 2020 level. For long-term holders, it's been a frustrating and bruising ride.
Worse, the narrative has weakened in recent weeks. Less-than-ideal guidance in the company's Q1 results earlier this month added fuel to concerns about the smartphone cycle and Qualcomm's ability to generate meaningful growth beyond it. Investors burned by prior false starts appear to have lost patience — understandably.
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Almost no one sees it coming, but AI is about to split America into two over the next 12 months. On one hand, it'll make America's one-percenters richer and more powerful than ever. On the other hand, it's set to trap millions of hardworking Americans in financial quicksand. Former Google exec Kai-Fu Lee says AI could wipe out 50% of jobs by 2027. Elon Musk has said AI will surpass human intelligence by 2027. Mark Zuckerberg has said half of all coding could be done by AI within the next year. One ex-hedge fund manager whose team predicted Nvidia's rise in 2020 calls this the AI End Game, and he says there are three critical moves every American should make in the next 12 months to protect and grow their wealth through this paradigm shift.
See the three moves before the AI split happensWhat makes matters more painful is that analysts who once largely ignored the name are increasingly urging caution and cutting ratings.
Still, as we've recently highlighted, this is the kind of setup that can attract contrarians, and a buy-the-dip opportunity could be forming. Let's take a closer look.
The Bears Are Growing Louder
The sell side's tone has shifted noticeably. Daiwa Securities Group cut its rating on Qualcomm from Outperform to Neutral last week, Morgan Stanley initiated coverage with an Underweight earlier this month, and Wells Fargo has maintained a defensive stance. Several reduced price targets now reach down into the low $130s, suggesting some analysts see further downside from current levels.
The bear case is straightforward: Qualcomm can look cheap on valuation, but inexpensive stocks can remain that way for extended periods if growth disappoints. Cautious analysts argue the stock already reflects muted expectations, and if the smartphone cycle stays subdued or earnings miss again, selling pressure could persist.
That said, the analyst community is divided — a number of firms remain optimistic, underscoring how split sentiment has become.
Price Action Suggests a Low May Be Forming
Beyond headlines, price action and technicals can offer a clearer read on the short-term story. Qualcomm's relative strength index (RSI) is flashing deeply oversold conditions, indicating unusually heavy selling pressure — readings that historically have not lasted long.
Importantly, the stock has found support after the sharp post-earnings drop in early February. After weeks of consecutive losses, the past week has seen several green sessions, a subtle shift that may suggest the bears are losing momentum.
The $135 area has so far held as support and now looks like a key line in the sand. If it continues to hold, the technical setup could flip from breakdown to consolidation. With the shares this oversold, it may not take much to trigger a recovery rally.
The Contrarian Case Is Worth Exploring
Not all analysts have thrown in the towel. DZ Bank upgraded the stock to a Strong Buy last week, Argus reiterated its Buy rating earlier this month, and Piper Sandler has maintained an Overweight stance — with bullish price targets as high as $200.
From current levels, that implies potential upside of roughly 40%, which, combined with oversold technicals and stabilizing price action, makes a contrarian case compelling for some investors. Contrarians don't need Qualcomm to become a market darling overnight; they simply need the stock to stop falling. Looking at the chart over the past week, they may be starting to get that.
Weighing the Opportunity
There's no denying Qualcomm is likely to remain a frustrating stock for some time. Cyclical headwinds and a chronic inability to sustain upward momentum have repeatedly undermined confidence. However, extreme pessimism can create opportunities when sentiment bottoms out.
If the stock can hold above $135 and continue to stabilize, a cautiously bullish stance begins to make sense. If that level breaks, the bears could push the shares lower.
ENPH Stock Soars 50% on Earnings Beat—Is It a Data Center Play?
Submitted by Chris Markoch. Originally Published: 2/5/2026.
What You Need to Know
- ENPH stock surges over 50% after beating on the top and bottom lines and raising Q1 revenue guidance, signaling demand recovery.
- Enphase eyes data center growth: R&D targets 800V DC power conversion and virtual power plants to unlock grid capacity for AI demand.
- Short interest at 22% helped fuel this post-earnings rally, but overbought ENPH stock signals a pullback, with the stock now at the upper range of analysts' price targets.
Enphase Energy (NASDAQ: ENPH) jumped more than 50% in early trading on Feb. 4, the day after the company reported its fourth-quarter results. Enphase beat both top- and bottom-line expectations, delivering adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.71 on revenue of $343.32 million versus consensus of $0.59 in EPS on $340.45 million in revenue.
On a year-over-year (YOY) basis, revenue was down roughly 10%. Still, investors pushed the stock higher, apparently siding with management's view that the current quarter may represent a trough as tariff headwinds continue to ease.
Silicon Valley insiders hint at 12-month AI warning (Ad)
Almost no one sees it coming, but AI is about to split America into two over the next 12 months. On one hand, it'll make America's one-percenters richer and more powerful than ever. On the other hand, it's set to trap millions of hardworking Americans in financial quicksand. Former Google exec Kai-Fu Lee says AI could wipe out 50% of jobs by 2027. Elon Musk has said AI will surpass human intelligence by 2027. Mark Zuckerberg has said half of all coding could be done by AI within the next year. One ex-hedge fund manager whose team predicted Nvidia's rise in 2020 calls this the AI End Game, and he says there are three critical moves every American should make in the next 12 months to protect and grow their wealth through this paradigm shift.
See the three moves before the AI split happensSupporting that outlook, management raised its first-quarter revenue guidance to $270 million–$300 million from a prior midpoint of $250 million. CEO Badrinarayanan Kothandaraman also said the company is nearly 90% booked to the midpoint of that range.
At the high end of the updated guidance, revenue would be up about 13% YOY. If next quarter is indeed the trough, that helps explain investor enthusiasm after an otherwise broadly positive report.
The Ace Up Enphase's Sleeve
Investors are also paying attention to Enphase's growing role in using its distributed-energy ecosystem to free up grid capacity for power-hungry data centers — an area management highlighted as a potential growth opportunity.
On the earnings call, Kothandaraman tied Enphase's long-term R&D roadmap to the data-center build-out. He noted hyperscale operators are moving toward 800-volt DC architectures and said Enphase is evaluating next-generation front-end power-conversion designs that can efficiently step medium-voltage AC (13.8 kV to 34.5 kV) down to 800-volt DC before power reaches AI racks.
While management stopped short of specific product timelines, it framed behind-the-meter resources and virtual power plants as a "critical evolution" of the business as data-center demand risks overwhelming local grids.
That message aligns with remarks from Enphase's marketing team, which envisions tech and data-center developers subsidizing residential solar-plus-storage deployments to unlock constrained grid capacity. Third-party analysis cited by the company suggests that, if large customers help fund distributed systems, this model could free up tens of gigawatts of effective capacity — potentially creating a new demand channel for Enphase's batteries, inverters, and load-management products.
For investors in the energy sector, this adds a longer-duration AI and data-center angle to the more familiar residential-solar recovery thesis, and it helps explain why the market is willing to look past a near-term 10% YOY revenue decline.
Beware of the Squeeze
Enphase delivered a solid quarter, and its stock was already up about 16% year-to-date heading into the report — a welcome relief for investors who endured a difficult 2025.
But does the earnings beat justify a roughly 35% post-earnings surge? It can, especially when short-covering is a factor. Short interest in ENPH is around 22% at the time of writing. That's not enormous, but it's enough to accelerate a sharp rally as shorts cover.
Still, ENPH looks overbought after this move. The Enphase analyst forecasts on MarketBeat show several analysts have upgraded the stock or raised price targets.
Although most new targets sit above the consensus price of $44.53, they offer little upside from the levels to which the stock has already bounced.
That suggests investors looking to get involved should wait for a pullback — which may come in the next several days as some traders lock in profits after the sharp rally.
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