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Whale Watching: BlackRock's Massive Bet on Nebius Group
Submitted by Jeffrey Neal Johnson. Published: 2/17/2026.
Key Points
- The world's largest asset manager has moved from a passive observer to a top stakeholder by executing an accumulation strategy in the Nebius Group.
- Major technology clients are funding the aggressive infrastructure expansion through prepayments to secure future computing capacity for artificial intelligence.
- The strategic acquisition of a specialized search platform allows Nebius to evolve from a commodity hardware renter into an essential software provider.
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Retail investors live in a world defined by daily headlines. A missed earnings estimate or a slight delay in a product launch can send share prices tumbling as individual traders react to immediate news.
Emotions run high, and decisions are often driven by fear of loss or FOMO. The world's largest asset managers, however, operate on a different timescale.
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They examine data over years rather than quarters and focus on structural shifts in the global economy instead of daily ticker-tape moves.
In the case of Nebius Group (NASDAQ: NBIS), recent market activity has been volatile following a mixed fourth-quarter earnings report.
While the market debated revenue timing and short-term misses, regulatory filings showed that smart money was quietly executing a large accumulation strategy.
The latest 13F filings, quarterly disclosures of major institutional holdings, reveal that BlackRock Inc. (NYSE: BLK), the world's largest asset manager, established a substantial position in the artificial intelligence infrastructure company. While retail investors were nervous, BlackRock was buying — a level of conviction that can create a psychological floor for Nebius's stock price and suggests professionals see value where others see risk.
Inside the 9.4 Million Share Purchase
The raw data tells a story of aggressive accumulation. According to the 13F-HR form filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on Feb. 12, 2026, BlackRock owned 9,431,400 shares of Nebius Group as of Dec. 31, 2025. Based on the closing price at the end of that reporting period, the position was valued at roughly $789 million.
To grasp the magnitude, compare the trend to the prior quarter:
- Previous filing: BlackRock reported holding 23,866 shares in November 2025.
- Current filing: BlackRock reports holding 9,431,400 shares in December 2025.
- The delta: This represents a quarter-over-quarter increase of approximately 39,418%.
Institutional investors often take toe-hold positions — small stakes used to monitor a company's performance without committing significant capital. The jump from roughly 23,000 shares to more than 9.4 million shares signals a strategic shift from monitoring to high-conviction ownership.
BlackRock has effectively moved from passive observer to a significant stakeholder. Such volume of buying is rarely accidental or merely an index adjustment; it typically reflects a deliberate capital allocation decision by one of the industry's most sophisticated teams. They are not just testing the waters — they are committing substantial capital.
Prepaid Success: The $20 Billion Blueprint
Why would an institutional giant deploy nearly $800 million into a company that missed Wall Street's revenue estimates? The answer likely lies in Nebius's aggressive 2026 guidance and how the spending is funded.
In its recent earnings report, Nebius management outlined a capital expenditure (CAPEX) plan of $16 billion to $20 billion for 2026. To an inexperienced investor, $20 billion in spending might look like dangerous cash burn. Historically, companies that spend faster than they earn are considered high risk. Institutional analysts, however, view this case differently.
In the current AI infrastructure shortage, companies generally do not spend billions on buildout unless customers are already committed. BlackRock appears to be buying that revenue backlog.
- The funding model: Nebius has confirmed that roughly 60% of the planned spending is being funded through customer prepayments.
- The customers: Tech giants like Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) and Meta (NASDAQ: META) are effectively paying Nebius upfront to build data centers and install GPUs they will use.
This structure markedly de-risks the investment. Nebius's Annualized Run Rate (ARR) reached $1.2 billion in December 2025, and management guided full-year 2026 revenue between $3 billion and $3.4 billion. By taking this position, BlackRock is buying exposure to the physical infrastructure of the AI revolution — servers and power supply — secured by contracts with some of the most creditworthy companies in tech. It's not a bet that a startup will find customers; it's a bet a contractor will fulfill orders already signed.
Strategic Foresight: The Agentic AI Pivot
Institutional investing is often about foresight: anticipating where a company will be in six months rather than reacting to where it is today. BlackRock established its position before Nebius announced its latest strategic move, suggesting analysts had already modeled the company's evolution.
On Feb. 10, 2026, Nebius announced the acquisition of Tavily for approximately $275 million. Tavily specializes in Agentic AI, enabling models to search the web in real time to answer complex queries. This acquisition moves Nebius up the value chain.
If a company only rents out servers, it sells a commodity and customers can chase the cheapest option. By integrating Tavily's search capabilities into its cloud, Nebius shifts toward a software-plus-infrastructure platform.
That makes the product stickier: customers are less likely to migrate because the software becomes integral to their workflows. BlackRock's entry suggests its analysts view Nebius as a future software platform as much as an infrastructure provider — a thesis that supports a higher valuation.
The Geopolitical Discount Is Gone
For much of the past two years, Nebius Group carried uncertainty tied to its separation from former parent Yandex. Many investors avoided the stock because of perceived geopolitical risk and divestment complexity.
BlackRock's roughly 39,418% increase in position size sends a clear message: that narrative has shifted. Smart money appears to have completed due diligence and now treats Nebius as a Dutch-headquartered global AI player. While retail traders may fret over a single quarter's revenue miss, BlackRock is focused on the 2026 roadmap: $20 billion in infrastructure expansion, much of it secured by prepayments from major tech firms, and a strategic move into higher-value software services.
For individual investors, the disconnect between short-term price volatility and long-term institutional accumulation offers a clear signal: the builders of the AI age may be only getting started.
Amazon Bets Big on BETA: Why Analysts See 50% Upside
Submitted by Jeffrey Neal Johnson. Published: 2/13/2026.
Key Points
- Amazon solidified its long-term partnership by acquiring a significant equity stake to support the decarbonization of its global delivery network.
- A solid liquidity position provides the company with the longest financial runway in the industry to support manufacturing and certification.
- Wall Street analysts see significant upside potential driven by near-term federal program awards and the maturity of electric motor technology.
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BETA Technologies (NYSE: BETA) is separating itself from the pack in the emerging electric aviation sector. While many competitors struggle with cash burn and shifting development timelines, BETA has spent the past week reinforcing its position as a more mature industrial player. The stock rose roughly 16% midweek, approaching the $19.50 level.
Two major events drove the move. First, e-commerce giant Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) disclosed a passive stake of about 5.3% — roughly 11.75 million shares — in a recent regulatory filing. Second, analysts at Jefferies upgraded BETA stock to a Buy rating, signaling confidence in its path to commercialization. For investors tracking the aerospace industry, these developments suggest BETA is shifting from a speculative research company toward a funded, strategic business with meaningful upside potential.
Why Amazon Bought In: Logistics Over Hype
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Amazon's investment is more than a vote of confidence; it's strategic validation of BETA's operational focus. The SEC filing shows Amazon as the second-largest external shareholder, trailing only GE Aerospace (NYSE: GE).
Amazon's interest appears driven by logistics, not passenger transport.
Rather than prioritize complex urban air taxis, BETA focused first on a simpler, pragmatic aircraft: the ALIA CX300. It is an electric conventional takeoff and landing (eCTOL) aircraft that uses a standard runway like a traditional cargo plane.
That design choice matters for three reasons:
- Regulatory simplicity: Avoiding vertical takeoff for its initial product gives BETA a cleaner, faster path to Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) certification.
- Network fit: The CX300 is well-suited for middle-mile logistics, moving cargo between airport distribution centers.
- Sustainability: The aircraft supports Amazon's Climate Pledge to decarbonize its delivery network.
By taking a stake in BETA, Amazon is effectively establishing a long-term partner for its future supply chain needs.
The Longest Runway in the Sector
In capital-intensive aerospace development, cash is the most important metric. The primary risk for investors is a company running out of money before achieving commercial certification. BETA has addressed this risk by building what is arguably the strongest balance sheet in the industry.
Following its initial public offering in November 2025 and a solid third quarter, BETA has a total liquidity position of $1.79 billion. That combines a Q3 cash balance of $687.6 million with roughly $1.1 billion in net IPO proceeds.
This financial position gives BETA a significant competitive advantage. In today's market, raising capital is expensive; while peers may need to dilute shareholders by issuing equity, BETA has the runway to continue operations without immediate capital raises.
The company is also generating revenue. In Q3 2025, BETA reported $8.92 million in revenue, beating analyst estimates of $7.5 million. That revenue came from a mix of defense contracts and charging network fees, showing the business model can produce income before full commercial service.
March Catalysts: Upgrades and Upcoming Wins
Wall Street is taking notice. On Feb. 11, Jefferies analyst Sheila Kahyaoglu upgraded BETA from Hold to Buy and set a $30 price target — implying more than 50% upside from current levels.
The upgrade cited recent share-price weakness as a buying opportunity, arguing the fundamentals remain intact despite market volatility.
It also pointed to specific near-term catalysts. The most significant is the March 2026 announcement of awards for the eVTOL Integration Pilot Program (eIPP) by the Department of Transportation and the FAA.
Securing a spot in that program would be a major win: it would allow BETA to begin operational simulations with federal oversight and advance the next phase of testing.
Analysts are also watching for FAA certification of BETA's H500 electric motor, expected in the first half of 2026. Certification of a commercial electric aviation motor would be a landmark engineering achievement and a substantial de-risking event for the company.
The Picks-and-Shovels Moat
BETA offers investors diversification uncommon in the electric aviation space. Many companies here rise and fall on the success of a single airframe; BETA has positioned itself as a supplier of critical technologies to the broader industry.
Key revenue drivers outside BETA's own aircraft include:
- Propulsion sales: BETA secured a $1 billion agreement to supply electric motors to Eve Air Mobility (NYSE: EVEX), a company backed by Embraer (NYSE: EMBJ). That deal means BETA can profit even if competitors succeed with their own airframes.
- Defense & marine: A classified partnership with General Dynamics (NYSE: GD) to develop propulsion for undersea vehicles validates BETA's technology in demanding environments and opens a non-aviation revenue stream.
- Charging infrastructure: BETA's multimodal charging network is live at more than 80 sites. The interoperable chargers can service ground EVs and other electric aircraft, creating a recurring, utility-like revenue stream.
Why BETA Belongs on the Radar
With a market capitalization near $4.3 billion and a growing order backlog valued at $3.5 billion, BETA is trading at an attractive valuation relative to its growth runway. The market currently offers a chance to buy a company with Amazon's strategic investment, a $1.79 billion liquidity cushion, and diversified revenue streams at a price below many analyst targets.
While the aerospace sector requires patience around regulatory timelines, BETA appears to have the financial and strategic resources to advance. For investors who want exposure to the future of flight without the speculative risk of pure-play air taxis, BETA Technologies merits a close look.
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