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AST SpaceMobile Jumps 9% After Government Contract Announcement
By Jordan Chussler. Published: 2/25/2026.
Key Points
- AST SpaceMobile has secured a $30 million prime contract from the U.S. Space Development Agency (SDA) for the HALO Europa Program, marking the first-ever prime contract for its defense subsidiary and solidifying its role as a key government contractor.
- While the company has seen a one-year stock gain of over 200% and massive year-over-year revenue growth, experts question its ability to meet ambitious goals, including the launch of 45 to 60 BlueBird satellites by the end of 2026.
- Despite heavy institutional investment, Wall Street remains cautious with a consensus Reduce rating and high short interest (over 16%), as analysts weigh recent earnings misses against the company's expanding portfolio of strategic and military partnerships.
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Shares of SpaceX rival and communication services upstart AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ: ASTS) jumped more than 9% after the company said it was awarded a $30 million prime contract from the U.S. Space Development Agency (SDA) for the HALO Europa Program.
The announcement is the latest in a string of contracts that have helped fuel a roller-coaster run, sending the stock to a one-year gain of more than 200%.
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The Midland, Texas–based aerospace firm continues its ambitious push to build a space-based cellular broadband network that connects standard mobile phones and other devices directly to its low Earth orbit (LEO) satellites.
The latest federal agreement, announced Monday, Feb. 23, is the first prime contract for AST SpaceMobile USA, the company's wholly owned defense subsidiary.
AST SpaceMobile Is Emerging as a Massive Government Contractor
Alongside strategic partnerships with the likes of Verizon Communications (NYSE: VZ), AT&T (NYSE: T), Vodafone Group (NASDAQ: VOD), Japan's Rakuten (OTCMKTS: RKUNY), REIT American Tower (NYSE: AMT) and Canada's BCE (NYSE: BCE), AST SpaceMobile's expanding role as a federal contractor is positioning the company as a significant provider of defense communications capabilities.
Details of the SDA award highlight AST SpaceMobile's ability to deliver rapid, direct-to-device tactical communications via its dual-use commercial BlueBird satellite constellation.
The contract supports the Europa Track 2 Commercial Solutions program, which aims to strengthen the Tranche 2 Demonstration and Experimentation System (T2DES) project — intended to build out the military's transport layer of communications and data-relay satellites.
Chris Ivory, CEO of AST SpaceMobile USA, said the company's selection "validates AST SpaceMobile's ability to rapidly operationalize commercial space capabilities for national security." He added that "by leveraging our existing low Earth orbit dual-use satellite technology, we support the government's defense efforts, delivering immediate connectivity with our BlueBird satellites and scaling quickly to advanced tactical use cases."
Previous federal contracts have been strong short-term catalysts: AST SpaceMobile's shares jumped 15% after announcing a Pentagon contract on Jan. 16.
Lofty Launch Expectations Keep All Eyes on ASTS
Despite the bullish government news, questions remain about the company's ability to hit ambitious 2026 launch targets, which call for putting 45 to 60 BlueBird satellites into orbit by year-end 2026.
On Jan. 22, AST SpaceMobile said its next-generation Block 2 BlueBird will fly on Jeff Bezos–founded Blue Origin's New Glenn-3 (NG-3) heavy-lift rocket, which is expected to deliver the array into LEO "no earlier than late February."
New Glenn-3 can carry up to eight BlueBird satellites at a time. Still, industry publication Light Reading reported in late January that, at its current pace, AST SpaceMobile risks missing its 2026 launch target.
Longer-term investors appear focused on the bigger picture. Institutional investors have been net buyers, with about $3 billion of inflows into ASTS over the past 12 months versus roughly $502 million in outflows. In the short term, however, analysts remain cautious.
How Wall Street Feels About ASTS Going Forward
Of the 12 analysts covering the stock, ASTS carries a consensus Reduce rating, with just three analysts assigning a Buy. The average 12-month price target of $52.94 implies more than 38% potential downside from current levels.
Meanwhile, short interest remains elevated at over 16%, or nearly 41 million of the roughly 367 million shares outstanding.
That figure is a 3.4% increase from the prior month and, at $4.54 billion, represents the highest dollar value of shares shorted since the company went public on April 7, 2021.
AST SpaceMobile's next earnings report, slated for Monday, March 2, could act as a near-term catalyst to challenge short-seller sentiment.
When the company last reported, it posted Q3 2025 results that missed expectations — its third consecutive miss — with revenue of $14.74 million versus analysts' estimates of $22.04 million.
Still, year-over-year revenue growth in Q3 was an eye-catching 1,239.91%, suggesting the company's growing roster of government contracts and corporate partnerships may be starting to produce meaningful revenue gains.
After a Near 50% Drop, Tempus AI Could Be Ripe for a Rebound
By Leo Miller. Published: 2/27/2026.
Key Points
- Tempus AI’s post-IPO volatility has reset expectations, but Q4 results showed strong organic growth alongside acquisition-fueled gains.
- Management’s 2026 outlook points to a potential full-year adjusted EBITDA inflection, a key milestone for the story.
- The company’s large multimodal dataset and entrenched testing channels may make disruption harder, even as analyst targets trend lower.
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Since going public in mid-2024, shares of healthcare and life science services company Tempus AI (NASDAQ: TEM) have taken investors on a wild ride. The firm's initial public offering price was $37. The stock climbed past $85 by February 2025, fell to about $50 two months later, and then rebounded above $100 by October. At that time, MarketBeat cautioned investors, noting several overvaluation signals. The stock now trades near $54 per share, roughly 50% below its all-time high.
Tempus recently reported its latest financial results, and the shares fell about 7% on the news. Still, with the stock well off its peak, the company is worth revisiting.
TEM Tops Estimates, Projects Full-Year EBITDA Inflection in 2026
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In Q4 2025, Tempus grew revenue 83% to $367 million, beating estimates. Much of that increase reflected acquisitions, which boosted the topline; company-reported organic growth was a healthy 33.5%. Tempus also posted an adjusted loss per share of $0.04, modestly better than the $0.05 loss analysts expected.
Testing volume in the oncology and heredity business lines rose 29% and 23%, respectively. Sustaining growth in these areas is critical: more tests generate diagnostic revenue and, over time, feed the company's data and applications revenue streams.
Tempus sells the data generated from its tests to pharmaceutical companies to improve clinical trial success rates. Data and applications revenue increased 25%, a slight deceleration from 26% the prior quarter. The company's net retention rate was 126% for the full year, meaning customers from 2024 increased their spending by 26% in 2025.
Profitability is also improving. Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) were $12.9 million, compared with a negative $7.8 million in Q4 2024.
Looking ahead, Tempus expects revenue growth of about 25% in 2026 and forecasts adjusted full-year EBITDA of $65 million, which would mark the company's first annual adjusted EBITDA in positive territory.
TEM's Huge 450 Petabyte Dataset: An AI-Disruption Shield
The risk of AI disruption to Tempus appears limited. Tempus has amassed roughly 450 petabytes of multimodal data it can use to train its own models — a significant competitive asset.
Data storage firm Pure Storage (NYSE: PSTG), which will begin trading under the name Everpure on March 5, helps put this in context. Pure Storage estimates that the healthcare sector generates around 450 petabytes of imaging data per year, so Tempus's dataset is comparable in size to annual healthcare imaging output — a striking figure.
Tempus's head start is meaningful and growing. Its dataset has more than tripled since 2022, when it was under 150 petabytes, and much of the data comes from the company's diagnostics segment. The company says more than 8,500 oncologists and thousands of other physicians regularly order tests, giving Tempus a strong and expanding data pipeline.
Replicating that training dataset would require performing diagnostic testing at scale — something large AI labs generally do not do and are unlikely to pursue. For many AI developers, disrupting software-as-a-service models is a more natural focus, and their models have been trained on large public and proprietary datasets that do not require rebuilding a clinical testing infrastructure.
Tempus is also developing its own foundational model and has submitted it to pharma giant AstraZeneca (NASDAQ: AZN) for review. Commercializing that model represents an additional revenue opportunity the company has not yet fully tapped.
Even After Lowering Targets, Analysts Eye Solid Gains Ahead
The MarketBeat consensus price target for Tempus sits near $79, implying more than 40% upside from current levels.
That said, many analyst targets have not been updated recently. Among targets updated or issued after Tempus's latest earnings release, the average is somewhat lower at roughly $71, which still implies upside of about 30%.
Overall, Tempus is seeing robust demand for its offerings, and existing customers are spending more — a sign that the company is delivering value and creating upsell opportunities.
Given the firm's strong organic growth, improving profitability, and uniquely large dataset, Tempus shares appear positioned to rebound if the company executes on its outlook.
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