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Shopify Defies Logic: AI Disruption Is a Good Thing
Author: Thomas Hughes. Article Published: 2/11/2026.
Key Points
- Shopify's SaaS services are being disrupted by AI, and it's a good thing for investors.
- Growth is sustained at a 30% pace, margins are strong, and cash flow enables capital returns.
- Analyst sentiment is robustly bullish, pushing this market towards record highs.
Shopify's (NASDAQ: SHOP) Q4 2025 earnings report was impressive, showing that AI disruption can be a positive force—at least for companies positioned to monetize it effectively. Shopify, a leading provider of eCommerce solutions for businesses of all sizes, has implemented AI across its stack, offering a platform and tools that simplify, accelerate, and automate processes for merchants and consumers.
The critical takeaway is that this megacap tech stock sustains roughly a 30% growth pace, is forecasting that trend to continue, and generates solid cash flow — with a new buyback underscoring the company's strength.
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See the five stocks to avoid and learn what's driving this shift.AI is not hurting its business. Shopify's board authorized a new $2 billion buyback plan, approximately 3% of the pre-release market cap. The buybacks will be automated and are expected to occur over subsequent quarters, limiting downside risk in the event of price pullbacks.
Shopify Blows Past Consensus, Guides for Strength in 2026
Shopify had a robust quarter, with revenue growth sustained in the low-30% range. Net revenue of $3.67 billion was up 30.6%, 220 basis points above consensus, driven by strength across regions, channels, and business sizes.
Subscriptions revenue, the smaller segment, grew 16.6% while Merchant Solutions grew 35%. Gross merchandise volume increased 31%, with gross payment volume up 37%. International and Business-to-Business traffic stood out, up 33% and 96%, respectively.
Margin news was also positive. The company experienced margin pressure, as expected, but less than forecast, aided by AI-driven efficiency and revenue leverage. While margin pressure remains a concern, increased marketing and R&D are controllable expenses. A 25% increase in gross profit and a 19% rise in free cash flow margins suggest those investments are paying off.
Guidance was the catalyst for the share-price move. The company issued strong Q1 guidance, with a low-30% revenue growth target nearly 500 basis points above consensus.
Operating expenses are expected to increase as Shopify invests in growth, but these investments should help sustain revenue and earnings momentum. Importantly, they do not impair the capital-return outlook or balance-sheet health; the company has no debt and is net cash relative to total liabilities.
Analysts Point to Fresh All-Time Highs in 2026: A Critical Pivot Will be Crossed
Analyst trends are robustly bullish and are likely to strengthen as Q1 2026 progresses. Coverage has increased — 45 analysts tracked by MarketBeat covered SHOP in early February, assigning the stock a consensus Buy. The price-target trend is also bullish, and sentiment is firming.
Upgrades issued the day before the release put the consensus price target in the $170–$200 range; the midpoint would be sufficient to set a fresh all-time high.
A move to fresh highs would be a significant pivot. In the base case, the stock could rise by an amount equal to the trading range preceding the breakout — roughly $145. Adding $145 to the breakout point would push the stock well above $300, a target that could be reached within a few quarters of the break.
Institutional ownership is a risk: institutions own more than 60% of the stock and were a headwind in early 2026. Selling slightly outpaced buying, leaving the market susceptible to a correction driven by AI-disruption fears. If institutions continue to sell into this rally, the market may struggle to make new highs. The upside is that institutions could resume accumulation now that guidance is in, turning the headwind into a tailwind.
Is Albemarle Setting Up for a Lithium-Fueled Rebound?
Author: Chris Markoch. Article Published: 2/12/2026.
Summary
- Albemarle beat revenue expectations, but earnings pressure reflects ongoing lithium price volatility and disciplined production adjustments.
- Long-term lithium demand remains strong, supported by EV adoption and rapidly expanding grid-scale energy storage tied to AI-driven power needs.
- With ALB still in an uptrend but showing momentum fatigue, investors are watching the 50-day SMA as a potential entry point.
The more things change, the more things stay the same for Albemarle Corp. (NYSE: ALB). That may not be much comfort for investors—the stock is down about 3% the morning after earnings—but the long-term outlook for Albemarle remains bullish, while the short-term picture is likely to be choppy.
In its fourth-quarter earnings report, Albemarle generated $1.43 billion in revenue, beating analyst forecasts of $1.34 billion and continuing a multi-quarter trend of upside surprises. More importantly, revenue rose from $1.23 billion a year ago, marking a return to year-over-year growth after four consecutive quarters of declines.
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See the five stocks to avoid and learn what's driving this shift.On the earnings front, the company reported a loss per share of $0.53, missing the forecast. However, that was an improvement of more than 50% on a year-over-year basis.
Like many names in the basic materials sector, Albemarle's results reflect higher lithium prices: spodumene concentrate (a key lithium-bearing ore) has roughly tripled since June 2025 amid tightening supply. Still, with ALB stock down about 11% since Jan. 27, it's more important to focus on the longer-term supply-demand outlook for lithium than on a single earnings print.
The lithium market outlook through 2030 helps explain why: global demand is forecast to surge from $32.38 billion in 2025 to $96.45 billion by 2033 (a 14.5% CAGR), driven by EV adoption and energy storage.
Energy Storage: A Different Play on Artificial Intelligence
Albemarle isn't an artificial intelligence (AI) play. But energy storage is expected to be a major driver of lithium demand between now and 2030. Lithium-ion batteries are central to grid-scale energy storage used by AI data centers and renewable energy projects, with lithium-ion accounting for more than 75% of global storage capacity.
A key takeaway from Albemarle's earnings presentation is that global stationary storage demand rose more than 80% in 2025, with strong growth across all major regions. Much of that expansion is being driven by increased energy needs from AI data centers.
U.S. Production Ramps Add Tailwinds
Amid volatile lithium prices, Albemarle is optimizing production through disciplined capacity management and cost controls. The company recently idled its Kemerton Train 1 in Australia after earlier actions on Train 2, shifting hydroxide output to lower-cost channels like its Chilean brine operations while maintaining access to Greenbushes spodumene. These moves preserve 2026 volumes without excessive CapEx, which should bolster adjusted EBITDA from Q2 onward.
Domestically, a $90 million grant from the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) will reactivate the Kings Mountain mine, leveraging U.S. reserves to improve supply-chain resilience amid Asia's dominance. Albemarle is prioritizing conversion efficiency and expects flat CapEx in 2026, focused on productivity gains and resource development. For now, that implies flat net sales but resilient adjusted EBITDA despite price swings.
These actions balance near-term flexibility with a long-term demand surge (14.5% CAGR to 2030), positioning ALB to capture upside as EV adoption and grid storage accelerate.
ALB Stock Requires Patience
Given Albemarle's central role in the lithium supply chain, it's not surprising that the ALB stock chart closely mirrors the spot price for lithium. Both peaked in late 2022 when lithium approached $80,000 per metric ton, and ALB has largely moved in tandem with the commodity since.
That translation produced more than a 110% gain over the past 12 months. The stock has pulled back roughly 17% since Jan. 27, with the selloff continuing the morning after the earnings report.
From a technical standpoint, Albemarle's uptrend remains intact, but there are signs of momentum fatigue. In early 2026, dips from an oversold relative strength index (RSI) produced quick new highs; the latest selloff, however, has been deeper and accompanied by a rollover in the RSI from overbought levels.
Investors should watch a few signals to gauge ALB's short-term direction:
- Will the RSI form a bearish divergence on a retest of recent highs?
- Can ALB continue to hold the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) as support?
- Does down-volume exceed the recent average, signaling real distribution?
The 50-day SMA is currently at $156.48. At that level, ALB would be about 3% below the current consensus price target. Since analysts have been raising targets this year, that could be a compelling buy zone for patient bulls.
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