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Eliza Lasky
Weiss Advocate
ENPH Stock Soars 50% on Earnings Beat—Is It a Data Center Play?
Written by Chris Markoch. Date Posted: 2/5/2026.
Key Points
- ENPH stock surges over 50% after beating on the top and bottom lines and raising Q1 revenue guidance, signaling demand recovery.
- Enphase eyes data center growth: R&D targets 800V DC power conversion and virtual power plants to unlock grid capacity for AI demand.
- Short interest at 22% helped fuel this post-earnings rally, but overbought ENPH stock signals a pullback, with the stock now at the upper range of analysts' price targets.
Enphase Energy (NASDAQ: ENPH) was up more than 50% in early trading on Feb. 4, the day after the company released its fourth-quarter earnings. Enphase beat expectations on both the top and bottom lines, reporting adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.71 on revenue of $343.32 million versus consensus estimates of $0.59 in EPS on $340.45 million in revenue.
On a year-over-year basis, revenue was down about 10%. Still, investors pushed the stock higher, apparently buying into management's optimism that the current quarter may represent a trough as tariff pressures ease.
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[[Click here now to view.]]Supporting that outlook, management raised its first-quarter revenue guidance to $270 million–$300 million from a prior forecast of $250 million. CEO Badrinarayanan Kothandaraman also said Enphase was nearly 90% booked to the midpoint of that guidance.
At the high end of the updated forecast, revenue would be up roughly 13% year over year. If next quarter is indeed the trough, that helps explain the market's positive reaction to an otherwise mostly bullish report.
The Ace Up Enphase's Sleeve
Investors are also focusing on Enphase's evolving role in using its distributed-energy ecosystem to help free up grid capacity for power‑hungry data centers, a growth opportunity management emphasized on the call.
On the earnings call, Kothandaraman tied Enphase's long‑term R&D roadmap to the data‑center build‑out. He noted hyperscale operators are moving toward 800‑volt DC architectures and said Enphase is evaluating next‑generation front‑end power‑conversion designs that can efficiently step medium‑voltage AC (13.8 kV to 34.5 kV) down to 800‑volt DC before power reaches AI racks.
While management did not provide specific product timelines, it described behind‑the‑meter resources and virtual power plants as a "critical evolution" of the business as data‑center demand threatens to strain local grids.
This message aligns with recent comments from Enphase's marketing team, which envisions tech and data‑center developers subsidizing residential solar‑plus‑storage to unlock grid capacity in constrained markets. Third‑party analysis cited by the company suggests that if large customers help fund distributed systems, it could free up tens of gigawatts of effective capacity — potentially creating a new channel for Enphase's batteries, inverters, and load‑management products.
For investors in the energy sector, that adds a longer‑duration AI and data‑center angle to the traditional residential‑solar recovery thesis, and helps explain why the market is willing to look past a near‑term 10% year‑over‑year revenue decline.
Beware of the Squeeze
Enphase delivered a strong report, and the stock was up about 16% year to date heading into the earnings release — a welcome change after a difficult 2025 for holders.
But does the fundamental report justify the more than 50% post‑earnings pop? It can, especially if traders were forced to cover short positions. Short interest in ENPH stock is roughly 22% as of this writing. That level isn't extreme, but it's significant enough to amplify a post‑earnings rally.
Technically, ENPH looks overbought after this sharp move. The Enphase analyst forecasts on MarketBeat show several analysts have upgraded the stock or raised price targets.
However, most of the new targets sit near or only slightly above the current consensus price of $44.53, offering little incremental upside from the recent bounce.
For new investors, a pullback may present a better entry point. Profit‑taking by short‑term traders after this rapid move higher could create that opportunity in the coming days.
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