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Chevron Earnings Hint at New Highs—Is CVX Ready to Run?
By Chris Markoch. Posted: 2/1/2026.
Key Points
- Chevron earnings highlighted record production and strong cash flow despite lower oil prices.
- The company's newly acquired Hess assets and global projects position set the stage for production growth in 2026.
- A 39-year dividend growth streak and rising momentum support a bullish case for CVX stock.
Chevron Corporation (NYSE: CVX) delivered mixed results in its fourth-quarter earnings report. The integrated oil giant slightly missed on revenue, but earnings came in above expectations. Several metrics were lower year over year, reflecting weaker oil prices in 2025.
Still, the company is looking forward to a strong 2026. Two reasons behind management's optimism are a full year of production from the assets it acquired in the merger with Hess and a growing role in Venezuela. Chevron announced plans to ramp up production in Venezuela by 50% over the next 18 to 24 months; that positioning could be material for future growth, as explained in this MarketBeat piece on why Chevron's Venezuela exposure matters.
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Claim your free copy of How To Master The Retirement Trade nowInvestors may not have gotten everything they wanted from the earnings release, but the results reinforce why Chevron remains an attractive buy in the energy sector. In addition to a reliable dividend, Chevron's performance supports the view that CVX stock could reach a new all-time high—an outcome that seems achievable by year-end.
Record Production Drives Growth
Chevron posted record production in 2025, up 12% and at the top end of its guidance range. That performance was driven by execution milestones across several key projects, including:
- Tengizchevroil (TCO)
- Permian Basin
- Gulf of America (GOA)
- Geismar chemical facility
Net oil and gas production benefited from an additional 261 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (kBOED) contributed by newly acquired Hess assets, primarily in Guyana and the Bakken.
Operational momentum extends beyond upstream projects. In the Eastern Mediterranean, Chevron completed its Tamar optimization project with first gas and reached a final investment decision on the Leviathan expansion, with additional capacity expected online in early 2026. The Aphrodite gas development has entered front-end engineering design, positioning the company for sustained growth in the region.
Looking to 2026, Chevron projects production growth of 7% to 10% using a $60-per-barrel Brent assumption. That outlook incorporates a full year of contributions from Hess assets in Guyana and the Bakken, offshore growth from GOA and the Eastern Mediterranean, and recognition that the company's U.S. shale and tight portfolio has reached a production plateau. Management expects TCO to add roughly 30 kBOED, while cautioning that base declines and other factors could reduce output by about 50 kBOED.
39 Years and Counting
Chevron raised its quarterly dividend to $1.78 from $1.71, a 4% increase year over year. This increase is below the annualized five-year dividend growth rate of 6.49%, but it marks 39 consecutive years of dividend increases for this Dividend Aristocrat.
The dividend is well supported by the company's adjusted free cash flow, which rose about 35% in 2025 despite oil prices falling roughly 15% year over year.
Strong Financial Position and Capital Discipline
Chevron's 2025 financial performance underscores its resilience in a challenging price environment. The company generated $33.9 billion in cash flow from operations, or $34.9 billion excluding working capital changes.
Full-year GAAP earnings were $12.3 billion, or $6.63 per diluted share, while adjusted earnings totaled $13.5 billion, or $7.29 per share. These results reflect Chevron's ability to sustain profitability even as Brent crude averaged $69 per barrel, down from $81 per barrel in 2024.
The company returned a record $27 billion to shareholders in 2025, including $2.2 billion in Hess common stock purchased in the first quarter. That total comprised $12.8 billion in dividends and $12.1 billion in share repurchases, consistent with management's through-the-cycle shareholder return strategy.
Capital discipline remains a cornerstone of the plan. Chevron achieved $1.5 billion in structural cost savings during 2025, with efficiency gains accounting for more than 60% of the reduction. Management is on track to deliver $3 billion to $4 billion in run-rate cost reductions by the end of 2026, helping to keep the company's dividend breakeven price below $50 per barrel of Brent through 2030.
Higher All-Time Highs Are in Sight
CVX stock is up more than 12% year to date in 2026, heading into earnings. That advance has pushed the stock above its rising 50-day simple moving average (SMA) and toward a new 52-week high, effectively establishing the prior ceiling around $155 as fresh support.
Importantly, the move higher is supported by expanding volume and confirmed by the MACD line, which is now firmly in positive territory. That combination suggests the upside momentum is broadening and not just a short-lived spike.
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