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Rivian Posts Biggest Gain Since IPO After Q4 2025 Earnings
Author: Leo Miller. Originally Published: 2/17/2026.
Key Points
- Rivian Automotive just provided a big win to shareholders, seeing its stock surge more than 25% after its latest earnings report.
- The company posted a strong profit beat, with its gross margin holding up despite a huge drop in vehicle deliveries.
- With the release of its R2 vehicle, Rivian sees deliveries rising over 50% in 2026, but other concerns remain.
Aspiring electric vehicle contender Rivian Automotive (NASDAQ: RIVN) just experienced one of its best trading days. The stock jumped nearly 27% on Feb. 13 after investors reacted to its latest earnings report, released the prior day. It was Rivian's largest single-day gain since its IPO, when shares rose about 29% following the November debut.
Rivian traded at lofty valuations initially. Even after the recent spike, the stock remains more than 75% below its IPO price of $78. Despite widespread belief that EVs will eventually supplant gas-powered vehicles, few EV companies have built consistently profitable businesses and delivered strong investor returns. Rivian is attempting to become one of the exceptions.
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The Wall Street Journal is asking whether a stock market crash is coming. Research from Weiss Ratings suggests the first half of 2026 could be very tough for certain stocks as a radical shift hits the market. Some of America's most popular names could take serious damage. Analysts have identified five stocks you should consider avoiding before this event plays out. If these are in your portfolio, you'll want to review your positions carefully.
See the five stocks to avoid and learn what's driving this shift.Let's dive into the firm's latest report that sparked the rally and break down what it means going forward.
Rivian Beats on Net Loss, Showing Gross Margin Resilience
In Q4 2025, Rivian generated revenue of $1.29 billion, a 26% year-over-year decline. That slightly exceeded estimates of $1.27 billion. The company's more notable metric was its adjusted loss per share of $0.54, which widened about 15% year over year but came in well ahead of the $0.68 loss analysts expected.
Rivian achieved the better-than-expected result largely by sustaining a resilient gross margin. Automotive gross margin was 9%, down only marginally from 10% in Q4 2024. At first glance the small decline may not seem impressive, but it's notable given that vehicle deliveries fell 31% year over year and vehicle production fell 14%.
Higher volumes typically support gross margins because fixed costs are spread across more units. That Rivian's margin barely declined despite sharply lower volumes is therefore a positive signal.
Two key factors underpinned this margin resilience. Over 2025, Rivian's average selling price (ASP) per vehicle rose by about $5,500. At the same time, automotive cost of goods sold (COGS) fell by roughly $9,500 per unit for the full year.
Lower materials costs were the main driver of the COGS improvement. The company's shift to the Gen 2 R1 architecture and softer lithium prices were key contributors. While Gen 2 could deliver a structural cost advantage, lithium prices are volatile and may not provide a consistent tailwind.
Deliveries Forecast to Soar in 2026 As R2 Ramps Up
Rivian also offered positive forward guidance. The launch of its next-generation R2 remains on track, with initial deliveries expected in Q2 2026. At the midpoint of its guidance, the company projects total deliveries of 64,500 vehicles across all models — a roughly 53% increase versus 2025.
On the profitability front, the improvement may be modest. Rivian forecasts adjusted EBITDA of -$1.95 billion at the midpoint, only about 5% better than its 2025 figure of -$2.06 billion. It also expects capital expenditures around $2 billion at the midpoint, a 17% increase versus 2025.
The company expects most deliveries to come in the second half of 2026 as R2 production ramps. The R2 launch will likely pressure profitability in Q2 and Q3, but Rivian expects to exit 2026 with a positive automotive gross profit.
The firm's "North Star" is reaching 4,000 units per week from its Normal, Illinois, facility — a level management believes would support adjusted EBITDA profitability in 2027. Hitting 4,000 units per week implies more than 200,000 annual deliveries, well above 2026 guidance. Achieving that will require strong execution and robust consumer demand for R2.
Analysts Eye Moderate Upside in RIVN After Latest Report
The consensus price target for Rivian sits at $17.62, roughly in line with its Feb. 13 close of $17.73. Still, analyst sentiment generally moved in a positive direction after the results: MarketBeat found only one analyst who lowered their target and several who raised theirs.
Two firms upgraded the stock: UBS moved from Sell to Neutral, and Deutsche Bank moved from Hold to Buy. Among price targets published after the earnings release, the average was $19, implying about 7% upside from the Feb. 13 close. Targets ranged from $15 to $25, underscoring divergent views on Rivian's outlook.
Overall, Rivian's report gave investors reasons for cautious optimism, but the durability of the rally and the potential for further gains remain uncertain. Ultimately, demand for R2 and the company's ability to scale production to meet that demand will be the primary determinants of Rivian's path. As 2026 unfolds, the long-term potential of Rivian shares should become clearer.
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