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Qualcomm Is Back at 2020 Levels—Warning or Opportunity?
Authored by Sam Quirke. Date Posted: 2/5/2026.
Key Points
- Qualcomm has erased all gains from the past two years after a brutal pre- and post-earnings selloff.
- Structural issues in handsets and weakening confidence make this a clear warning sign for long-term investors.
- However, extremely oversold conditions could still create short-term trading opportunities amid elevated volatility.
After reporting disappointing earnings on Feb. 4 after market close, Qualcomm Inc (NASDAQ: QCOM) left investors asking what is going wrong. The stock is now trading below $140, down from $185 a month ago — a steep slide over a very short period, capped by a sharp post-earnings drop on Thursday morning. The chart tells the story.
Most importantly, Qualcomm has given up the gains it fought to build over the past two years. The stock is back at levels last seen in 2020 — a sobering position for a company that has repeatedly pitched itself as a semiconductor firm well positioned for the AI revolution.
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Discover how to invest in the fund Trump uses to collect this income >>Already on shaky ground going into the report (note that Qualcomm's fiscal year is ahead of the calendar year), the company did little to restore investor confidence with its Q1 disclosure. While the headline numbers avoided disaster, management's bearish forward guidance triggered a renewed collapse in sentiment. Still, could there be an opportunity for those with a higher risk appetite? Or was the guidance a warning too clear to ignore? Let's take a look.
Why This Is a Warning Sign for Long-Term Investors
The core issue is what the latest report reveals about Qualcomm's structural challenges. Management cited ongoing industry pressures — memory supply constraints and softness in handset demand. Those factors are not unique to Qualcomm, but they matter more here because the company remains heavily exposed to smartphones despite efforts to diversify into automotive, Internet of Things (IoT) and licensing businesses.
Compounding that problem is Qualcomm's pattern of struggling to sustain rallies. Each time optimism builds around a rebound or the diversification narrative, the stock has repeatedly rolled over, and this latest selloff fits that pattern uncomfortably well. The market is right to question whether Qualcomm can deliver durable growth rather than episodic gains.
Analyst sentiment has shifted noticeably. Several firms have reacted to the Q1 report by reiterating cautious views or downgrading to neutral, and some commentary has grown openly bearish — HSBC warned it could be "difficult to forecast a potential bottom."
The result: a significant loss of credibility. Long-term investors who have stayed through multiple cycles are now looking at a stock that has essentially gone nowhere over half a decade, despite repeated promises of transformation. From that perspective, this earnings report reads more like a warning than a reset.
Where Traders Might See a Short-Term Opportunity
That said, while the long-term picture looks damaged, the short-term setup may be different. The speed and magnitude of the selloff have pushed Qualcomm into extremely oversold territory; momentum indicators are at levels rarely seen in the past decade. That doesn't guarantee a full rebound, but it does increase the probability of a sharp bounce if selling pressure begins to exhaust itself.
There are already early signs of that dynamic. After opening sharply lower in the session after earnings, the stock found intraday support by the afternoon. How that support holds in the coming days will be telling.
Even among analysts who have turned cautious, many of the revised price targets remain well above the current price — Bank of America at $155, Cantor Fitzgerald at $160, and Rosenblatt maintaining a Buy with a $190 target, for example.
Whether those views prove correct over the next year is debatable, but in the near term they reinforce the idea that pessimism may be overextended.
How to Think About the Setup
The key is to separate investing from trading. For long-term investors, this report raises uncomfortable questions about Qualcomm's ability to sustain growth and hold gains. Until the company demonstrates durable progress, patience and caution are warranted.
For short-term traders, the setup is different: extreme oversold conditions, violent moves and widespread pessimism create environments where relief rallies can be sharp and profitable — provided risk is managed tightly. That typically means small position sizes, predefined stop-loss levels and a clear exit plan.
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