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Whale Watching: BlackRock's Massive Bet on Nebius Group
Author: Jeffrey Neal Johnson. Publication Date: 2/17/2026.
At a Glance
- The world's largest asset manager has moved from a passive observer to a top stakeholder by executing an accumulation strategy in the Nebius Group.
- Major technology clients are funding the aggressive infrastructure expansion through prepayments to secure future computing capacity for artificial intelligence.
- The strategic acquisition of a specialized search platform allows Nebius to evolve from a commodity hardware renter into an essential software provider.
Retail investors live in a world defined by daily headlines. A missed earnings estimate or a slight delay in a product launch can send share prices tumbling as individual traders react to immediate news.
Emotions run high, and decisions are often made out of fear of loss or missing out. The world's largest asset managers, however, play an entirely different game.
Silicon Valley insiders hint at 12-month AI warning (Ad)
Almost no one sees it coming, but AI is about to split America into two over the next 12 months. On one hand, it'll make America's one-percenters richer and more powerful than ever. On the other hand, it's set to trap millions of hardworking Americans in financial quicksand. Former Google exec Kai-Fu Lee says AI could wipe out 50% of jobs by 2027. Elon Musk has said AI will surpass human intelligence by 2027. Mark Zuckerberg has said half of all coding could be done by AI within the next year. One ex-hedge fund manager whose team predicted Nvidia's rise in 2020 calls this the AI End Game, and he says there are three critical moves every American should make in the next 12 months to protect and grow their wealth through this paradigm shift.
See the three moves before the AI split happensThey look at data over years, not quarters, and analyze structural shifts in the global economy rather than the daily ticker-tape movement.
In the case of Nebius Group (NASDAQ: NBIS), market activity turned volatile after a mixed fourth-quarter earnings report. While the market debated timing and short-term misses, regulatory filings revealed smart money executing a sizable accumulation strategy.
The latest 13F filings — quarterly reports disclosing major investment firms' holdings — show that BlackRock Inc. (NYSE: BLK), the world's largest asset manager, has built a substantial position in the artificial intelligence infrastructure company. While retail investors were nervous, BlackRock was buying, signaling a conviction that can create a psychological floor for Nebius's stock price.
Inside the 9.4 Million Share Purchase
The raw data from the regulatory filing tells a story of aggressive accumulation. According to the 13F-HR form filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on Feb. 12, 2026, BlackRock owned 9,431,400 shares of Nebius Group as of Dec. 31, 2025. Based on the closing price at the end of that reporting period, the position was valued at roughly $789 million.
To grasp the magnitude, compare this with the previous quarter:
- Previous filing: BlackRock reported holding 23,866 shares in November 2025.
- Current filing: BlackRock reports holding 9,431,400 shares in December 2025.
- The delta: This represents a quarter-over-quarter increase of approximately 39,418%.
Institutional investors often take toehold positions — small stakes used to monitor a company before committing capital. Moving from roughly 23,000 shares to over 9.4 million indicates a strategic shift from monitoring to high-conviction ownership.
BlackRock has effectively moved from passive observer to major stakeholder. This volume of buying is rarely accidental or merely an index adjustment; it typically reflects a calculated allocation by one of the most sophisticated investment teams in the world. They're not just testing the waters — they're diving in.
Prepaid Success: The $20 Billion Blueprint
Why would an institutional giant sink nearly $800 million into a company that missed revenue estimates? The answer likely lies in Nebius's aggressive 2026 guidance and how that spending is financed.
In its recent earnings report, Nebius forecasted capital expenditures (CAPEX) of $16 billion to $20 billion for 2026. To an inexperienced investor, spending $20 billion may look like dangerous cash burn. Historically, companies that spend faster than they earn are considered high risk. Institutional analysts view this situation differently.
In the current AI supply shortage, you generally do not spend billions on infrastructure unless customers are already waiting to use it. BlackRock is likely buying the revenue backlog.
- The funding model: Nebius has confirmed that roughly 60% of this spending plan is being funded through customer prepayments.
- The customers: Tech giants such as Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) and Meta (NASDAQ: META) are effectively paying Nebius upfront to build data centers and install GPUs they need.
This structure significantly de-risks the investment. Nebius's Annualized Run Rate (ARR) reached $1.2 billion in December 2025, and the company guided 2026 revenue to between $3 billion and $3.4 billion. By taking this position, BlackRock is buying into the physical infrastructure of the AI revolution — servers and power secured by contracts with some of the most creditworthy tech companies. It isn't a bet on a startup finding customers; it's a bet on a contractor fulfilling already-signed orders.
Strategic Foresight: The Agentic AI Pivot
A key trait of institutional investing is foresight — predicting where a company will be in six months rather than reacting to where it is today. BlackRock established this large position before Nebius announced a strategic pivot, suggesting its analysts correctly modeled the company's trajectory.
On Feb. 10, 2026, Nebius announced the acquisition of Tavily for about $275 million. Tavily specializes in Agentic AI, which enables models to search the web in real time to answer complex questions. This acquisition moves Nebius up the value chain.
If a company only rents servers, it sells a commodity and customers will eventually defect to the cheapest option. By integrating Tavily's search capabilities directly into its cloud, Nebius becomes a software platform rather than just a hardware rental service.
That makes the product sticky: customers are less likely to leave because the software is integral to their workflows. BlackRock's entry suggests its analysts valued Nebius as a future software platform, which supports a higher valuation than a pure infrastructure play.
The Geopolitical Discount Is Gone
For much of the past two years, Nebius was weighed down by uncertainty around its separation from former parent Yandex. Many investors shunned the stock because of geopolitical risk and the divestment's complexity.
BlackRock's 39,418% position increase sends a clear message: that narrative is shifting. The smart money has done its due diligence and now views Nebius as a Dutch-headquartered global AI player. While retail traders may fret over a single quarter's revenue miss, BlackRock is focused on the 2026 roadmap — betting on a company with $20 billion in infrastructure expansion, backed by the biggest names in tech, and evolving into a software platform.
For individual investors, the disconnect between short-term price volatility and long-term institutional accumulation offers a clear signal: the builders of the AI age are still just getting started.
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