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Amazon's in a Bear Market—What to Expect for the Rest of Q1
Submitted by Sam Quirke. First Published: 2/25/2026.
Key Points
- Amazon has fallen more than 20% from its November high, officially entering bear-market territory, as conviction remains weak.
- Earnings jitters and a massive AI spending plan have rattled investors, but shares are forming a bottom around $200.
- Near-universal Buy ratings and bullish price targets from analysts suggest the selloff may be short-lived.
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After trading near $260 last November, tech titan Amazon.com Inc (NASDAQ: AMZN) sits just above $200 in late February. The decline has pushed the stock firmly into bear market territory, with more than 20% shaved off its recent peak. What was already a choppy 2025 has become a fragile start to 2026 for investors.
The most recent catalyst behind the drop was the company’s Q4 earnings earlier this month.
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A rare EPS miss, combined with management's plan for roughly $200 billion in capital expenditures for AI and data-center expansion, spooked investors.
In a market that has grown increasingly sensitive to spending discipline, the headline numbers were enough to shake confidence, especially given that the stock was already struggling to maintain momentum.
Yet beneath the price action the business itself does not appear to be deteriorating, which raises an important question now that Amazon is officially in a bear market: Is this the start of a deeper downtrend, or simply a reset? Here’s how to think about the setup for the rest of the quarter.
What's Behind the Drop?
The stock had been drifting sideways for much of the past few months, struggling to generate upside momentum. That lack of conviction made it especially vulnerable to any shift in investor sentiment. When earnings missed and management outlined eye-watering spending plans, sellers seized control.
The reaction appeared driven less by collapsing fundamentals and more by narrative fatigue. Investors are asking whether heavy AI investment can deliver acceptable returns quickly enough, especially in a macro environment that is becoming less forgiving of aggressive capital allocation.
That tension defines the current setup: Amazon is investing to stay ahead in AI and infrastructure—two key growth channels—but the market increasingly wants proof of returns rather than promises of dominance.
The Fundamentals Are Not Bearish
Despite the selloff, Amazon’s fundamentals remain solid. Revenue is growing, margins are expanding, and AWS is accelerating faster than many expected. Those are not the hallmarks of a company in structural decline.
Valuation has also reset meaningfully. The stock’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, at roughly 28, sits near one of its lowest readings in years. For a dominant business with diversified revenue streams across e-commerce, cloud, advertising, and subscriptions, that multiple is not stretched.
Given that backdrop, the disconnect between price action and operating performance is striking. For long-term investors, this technical bear market can be viewed as a potential opportunity rather than a definitive warning sign.
Analysts Are Not Throwing in the Towel
Wall Street support remains comparatively steady despite the bear-market label.
To name two, Daiwa Securities Group and New Street Research have both reiterated Buy ratings on Amazon this month, with price targets stretching toward $285.
From the stock’s current levels near $200, that implies nearly 40% upside potential. Such conviction would be hard to justify if revenue were contracting or margins collapsing.
Rather, the bullish stance reflects confidence in Amazon’s long-term strategic positioning, outweighing near-term negative sentiment on the shares.
What the Chart Is Saying
Technically, there are signs shares are starting to form a bottom around $200. That was the recent low where bulls intervened in mid-February, preventing a further breakdown. That area is now critical support for the remainder of Q1.
If the stock can hold above $200 and begin setting higher lows, the bear-market designation may prove short-lived and the pullback could be seen as a reset rather than the start of a prolonged decline. If $200 fails, however, last year’s low around $170 would likely come back into view.
What to Expect Through the Rest of Q1
The most likely near-term path is continued volatility. Investors remain uneasy about the stock’s inability to mount a meaningful rally, and any further headlines about spending could trigger sharp swings.
At the same time, the underlying business momentum provides a floor. AWS's strength and expanding margins offer fundamental support that many other stocks in bear markets lack, suggesting Amazon is more likely consolidating than entering a multi-year collapse.
For the remainder of Q1, watch the $200 level closely. As long as shares remain above it, the odds of a recovery toward the mid-$200s look favorable. Failure to hold that line would likely invite renewed selling pressure and extend the bear phase.
One of the Top Performing ETFs of 2026 So Far May Surprise You
Submitted by Nathan Reiff. First Published: 2/16/2026.
Key Points
- BWET is one of the leading ETFs by year-to-date performance, with returns of around 98% so far in 2026.
- The fund has a unique focus on oil freight futures, generating profit when oil shipment prices rise beyond market expectations.
- However, BWET's sky-high expenses, limited asset base, and low trading volume all present additional risks on top of an already-complex strategy.
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As the market settles into 2026, exchange-traded funds (ETFs) remain as popular as ever. U.S. ETFs absorbed an impressive $1.48 trillion in total inflows in 2025 as hundreds of new products launched, broadening the strategies available to investors through these vehicles.
With uncertainty around geopolitics, shifting trade flows, a possible AI bubble and other risks, some investors may increasingly turn to ETFs for their defensive potential. At the same time, several funds have started 2026 with strong momentum and could appeal to investors willing to accept more risk in pursuit of outsized returns.
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One such fund is the Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF (NYSEARCA: BWET), which sits near the top of the list of best-performing ETFs so far in 2026. BWET has returned nearly 100% year-to-date (YTD), contributing to a 223% gain over the past 12 months. Below, we'll examine what may be driving that performance, whether the rally has further to run, and the key considerations for investors thinking about adding this high-momentum ETF.
A Closer Look at BWET's Strategy
BWET provides exposure to the crude oil transport market through the Breakwave Tanker Futures Index. The index tracks crude oil tanker freight rates by investing in short-dated freight futures contracts, making BWET one of the few ways for investors to access freight futures without trading futures directly. That gives it a different risk/reward profile than funds that simply hold shares of oil tanker companies.
The fund aims to generate gains when oil freight futures prices rise beyond what the market has already priced in.
Global oil shipping remains a core part of the energy supply chain, centered on major exporters such as the United States, Venezuela and Brazil and big importers including China and many European countries. Shipping rates reached a multi-year high late in 2025 as demand increased, and continued cold winter weather could keep rates elevated in some regions for the near term.
BWET's index uses freight futures contracts with one- to six-month maturities and a weighted average expiration between 60 and 90 days. Most of the index's exposure is to very large crude carriers (VLCCs), the largest class of tankers by capacity.
Evaluating BWET's Recent and Potential Performance
BWET's recent surge is likely a mix of stronger winter demand and shifts in global oil flows related to ongoing U.S. pressure on Venezuela and other geopolitical developments. Although winter demand may persist through March, it will eventually subside, so the seasonal peak is probably behind us.
That said, geopolitical disruptions to oil markets can be prolonged and unpredictable. If further turmoil keeps freight rates elevated, BWET—whose performance is tied to freight futures—could continue to rally. Conversely, a return to more normal shipping conditions or easing of trade disruptions could cause freight rates and BWET's returns to decline quickly.
Other Factors to Consider
Despite the strong performance this year, investors should weigh several important drawbacks before adding BWET. Investing in futures contracts—directly or via an ETF—adds complexity and risk beyond traditional equities. BWET is a niche product with a small asset base (about $8.5 million in assets under management) and low average trading volume, which can lead to wider bid-ask spreads and make large trades more costly or difficult.
Additionally, BWET carries a high expense ratio of 3.5%. The fund sponsor had limited that fee to 3.5% through the end of 2025 and cautioned that expenses could increase thereafter, so ongoing fees may be materially higher than what many investors are accustomed to. That level of costs, combined with the ETF's concentrated strategy and liquidity profile, will likely limit its suitability to only the most committed or speculative investors, while others looking for oil exposure may prefer to pursue alternatives.
Bottom line: BWET's exceptional YTD returns reflect its niche exposure to tanker freight futures and the recent strength in shipping rates. For investors considering BWET, the potential for further upside must be balanced against complex futures exposure, small assets and liquidity constraints, and a high fee structure.
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