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Spending Fears Weigh on CoreWeave, But the Backlog Tells Another Story
By Thomas Hughes. Published: 2/27/2026.
Key Points
- CoreWeave is positioning for sustained hypergrowth as it ramps up its expansion plans.
- Rising debt and dilution are risks for this market that are weighing on stock prices, keeping them in the Buy Zone.
- Institutional data suggests this group is accumulating CoreWeave aggressively and provides a solid support base near February lows.
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CoreWeave (NASDAQ: CRWV) stock is depressed in Q1 2026 amid concerns about spending, dilution, and execution risk. Still, analyst sentiment, institutional trends, recent results and the company's backlog suggest those fears may be overblown.
The takeaway for investors: the road ahead may be bumpy, but this GPU-as-a-Service and AI infrastructure name looks inexpensive relative to expanding long-term forecasts.
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The company reported losses but projects margin improvement over the coming quarters and years as new capacity comes online and backlog converts to revenue. Management expects profitability by the middle of the next fiscal year and it could arrive sooner than currently anticipated. While today's valuation is elevated, the market appears to be pricing in growth while still potentially undervaluing the company's long-term upside, according to recent commentary.
CoreWeave's Market Undervalues the Stock Relative to Long-Term Forecast
Forward consensus targets assume a conservative 20x price multiple as early as 2028; even longer-term forecasts use only low single-digit multiples. Under those assumptions, the stock could rise sharply — potentially several hundred percent, and in some scenarios as much as 600% — as earnings expand to meet forecasts.
Institutional activity shows that investors have been aggressively accumulating the shares since the IPO. Dilution is a concern — share count increased materially over recent quarters — but institutions have been buying heavily and capitalization is not an immediate constraint.
The company will likely need additional capital as it ramps capacity, but that same capacity ramp should generate accelerating cash flow to offset capital needs and the debt burden. Institutional holders, who own roughly 55% of the stock as of late February, provide a solid support base. Their activity has been a net positive for price action, with purchases outpacing sales by about $2 for each $1 sold.
Over time, the dilutive effect should abate and continued institutional accumulation could support another leg higher. The more immediate challenge is analyst caution — many are in a wait-and-see mode because of rising debt and higher spending.
Analysts' Responses Muted: CoreWeave to Rise 30%
Analysts' reactions have been generally positive but muted, with only a single tracked revision and limited published commentary. Notes highlighted encouraging signals from capacity ramps and backlog growth, while flagging the sharp increase in spending and its effect on near-term cash flow.
The Q4 2025 report showed a 3x increase in debt, a greater than 100% year-over-year rise in share count, and sizable increases in sales & marketing, general & administrative, and technology & infrastructure expenses, which produced a wider-than-expected loss. Despite that, CoreWeave carries a consensus rating of Moderate Buy from 30 analysts, with an average price target near $125 — roughly 30% above February support levels.
Guidance assumes robust spending in 2026 but also points to the backlog as an offset. Backlog surged more than 4x year-over-year to nearly $67 billion in potential revenue, a company record, supporting continued hypergrowth next year. Management forecasts more than $12.5 billion in annual revenue, an increase of over 140% from the prior fiscal year.
CoreWeave's balance sheet is a potential risk. Cash and receivables have risen, helping offset higher debt and liabilities, but cash burn is expected to continue and equity could erode if the company does not convert backlog into cash quickly enough. The mitigating factor is that capacity is being added regularly and contracted capacity increases are beginning to drive cash-flow improvements.
CoreWeave Retreats Despite Solid Report: Lower Lows Possible
While CoreWeave's long-term outlook is bright, near-term headwinds leave the stock vulnerable. Post-release trading was down more than 10%, confirming resistance around a cluster of moving averages and opening the possibility of a deeper pullback.
Price action could retest recent lows or drop further; a move to fresh lows would raise concern for a more pronounced decline. In an aggressive downside scenario the shares could trade toward the $40 area, though that is not the base case. The more likely outcome is that institutional buyers continue to provide support in the $65–$85 range while capacity ramps and backlog conversion improve underlying fundamentals.
Matador's Results Were Better Than Feared, But 2026 Headwinds Still Matter
By Thomas Hughes. Published: 2/27/2026.
Key Points
- Matador is positioned as a quality Permian operator with a midstream cushion, steady cash flow, and ongoing capital returns despite a softer 2026 oil tape.
- Q4 2025 results and 2026 guidance are framed as better than feared, with production growth and lower spending supporting dividends and buybacks.
- The main near-term risk is institutional flow and technical resistance, which could cap upside and pressure shares before a longer-term rebound.
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Matador Resources (NYSE: MTDR) faces headwinds in 2026, including weak oil prices and softer market sentiment, but it remains a buy for long-term investors. Matador, a high-quality play on unconventional oil in West Texas and New Mexico, continues to grow its business — expanding acreage, proven reserves, operating wells, and production while generating positive cash flow and returning capital to shareholders. The key takeaway: the company is improving quality, positioning itself for long-term success at current oil price levels and for an accelerated earnings rebound if (when) oil prices recover.
Insider activity is one of several indicators of this company's quality. Insiders own nearly 6% of the stock and have been active buyers since the COVID-19 lows in 2020. While no purchases have been logged in 2026 as of late February, MarketBeat data shows insider buying ramped up in 2025, reaching record levels in Q4 2025.
Matador Reports Strength in Q4 2025: Issues Strong Guidance for 2026
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Matador posted solid results for Q4 2025, despite lower oil prices. The company generated nearly $850 million in net revenue, down 12.6% year over year, and it exceeded consensus expectations by a wide margin. Production volumes rose both year over year and sequentially, and midstream operations performed well — an important factor because midstream cash flows provide a regular dividend tied to volumes rather than commodity prices.
Margins were stronger than feared. Production operations generated positive cash flow, and midstream contributions were more robust than anticipated. Adjusted earnings per share came in at $0.87, down more than 50% year over year but $0.11 ahead of expectations, supporting healthy cash flow, capital returns, and balance sheet improvements.
Guidance supports both growth and continued capital returns. Matador forecasts roughly 3% production growth and an 11% reduction in capital spending, which should create room for dividends and share repurchases.
Matador's dividend is substantial, yielding about 3% at share prices in the high-$40s, and it is relatively reliable — the payout accounts for roughly 25% of the 2026 earnings forecast. The company has raised the dividend seven times over the past five years and appears to have capacity to do so again. Buybacks are meaningful as well: shares outstanding fell by 0.9% year over year in Q4, and repurchases are expected to continue.
Analysts and Institutions Cap Gains for MTDR in Early 2026
Analyst and institutional trends are generally favorable, but caution in early 2026 has limited the stock's upside. Fifteen analysts tracked by MarketBeat rate the stock as a Moderate Buy with a 73% buy-side bias, though many have trimmed price targets. Recent targets sit toward the low end of the range — potentially as low as $47, which may act as a near-term floor — while consensus still implies roughly 20% upside.
The larger risk comes from institutions, which collectively own about 92% of the stock after accumulating through 2025. Selling in Q1 2026 has outpaced buying, creating a headwind; if that trend continues, MTDR could struggle to hold current levels and might revisit recent lows.
Price action reflects those headwinds. While a bottom appears to be forming, the early-2026 rebound stalled below the mid-point of the long-term trading range, aligning with resistance near long-term exponential moving averages. That setup suggests the stock remains under pressure and could drift toward the $40 level by midyear if selling persists.
The key question is whether institutions return to buying at lower levels or whether price action deteriorates further. In an extreme downside scenario the shares could fall much lower, but that outcome is not the base case. Trading at roughly 5x its 2030 earnings forecasts, MTDR looks undervalued relative to its longer-term potential; effective execution by management could materially boost the stock. A potential catalyst in 2026 is Energy Transfer's (NYSE: ET) soon-to-be-opened Hugh Brinson pipeline, which is expected to connect Matador to the higher-paying Henry Hub market.
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