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Why Analysts Still See Big Upside in Salesforce After the SaaS Scare
Written by Thomas Hughes. Published: 2/16/2026.
Key Points
- Salesforce’s pullback has analysts debating risk versus opportunity, but most price targets still imply notable upside.
- The company’s AI strategy centers on unifying data and execution through Data Cloud and Agentforce, plus broad model partnerships.
- Valuation, upcoming earnings, and guidance are positioned as the key swing factors for the stock.
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Salesforce (NYSE: CRM) stock fell sharply, creating what many see as a deep-value opportunity amid this year's broad sell-off in software shares. The software-as-a-service (SaaS) "apocalypse" is likely overblown, and analysts are taking note. While AI can disrupt SaaS stocks, not all vendors are equally exposed. Leading AI modelers are expanding into new verticals, which pressures some SaaS providers — but many, including Salesforce, are leaning into AI to add value for their customers.
Salesforce has been a leader in AI, machine learning and automation for years. Its Data Cloud/Agentforce combination creates a unified platform for CRM data, data management and insights, plus AI-powered execution. The result is an automated end-to-end CRM platform that drives efficiencies both inside and outside organizations. On the model side, Salesforce has partnered with the major AI model providers, integrating access and applications across its platforms.
Analysts Trimmed Targets: Highlight Market's Overreaction
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Analyst activity contributed to Salesforce's decline, as some analysts trimmed price targets in late 2025 and early 2026. But the market appears to have overreacted, trading well below many of the targets. Upside potential ranged from a minimum of roughly 15% as of mid-February to as high as about 70% at the consensus target.
While the revision trend suggests targets have moved lower, the $221 low-end is an outlier; most targets are clustered between $235 and nearly $400 — generally above consensus. The takeaway: analysts are uncertain about the near term but still see moderate to robust double-digit upside in the stock.
Recent commentaries include updates from Wedbush and analyst Dan Ives. Ives argues the SaaS sell-off is overdone and presents "a table-pounding buying opportunity" for SaaS names. He views Salesforce not as an AI loser but as a core participant in the AI revolution, and he has added it back to the Dan Ives Wedbush AI Revolution ETF (NYSEARCA: IVES) portfolio.
That reinclusion is another bullish signal. Institutions — which own about 80% of the stock — have been accumulating in 2026. MarketBeat data shows institutional buying at roughly a 2-to-1 pace over the trailing 12 months, a trend that continued into early 2026. That institutional demand provides a support base as price action declined. Short sellers haven't been aggressively adding to positions during the weakness; while short interest has ticked up recently, it remains too low to be a material catalyst.
Underappreciated Salesforce Can Rise Triple Digits on Valuation Alone
Disruption aside, Salesforce's revenue and earnings outlook remains solid, and the market appears to be undervaluing the company. Analysts' estimates imply the stock trades at roughly 16x this year's earnings and under 7x a longer-term (2035) forecast. That gap implies the potential for very large gains over time — some models suggest a 200% to 400% price increase is possible if multiples re-rate. Blue-chip tech names typically tend to trade closer to 30x current-year earnings; the principal missing ingredient for Salesforce is a clear catalyst, which could arrive with the next earnings release and updated guidance.
The Q4 fiscal 2026 report is due in late February and could outperform consensus. Analysts have been raising estimates, but the consensus growth rate remains in the low single digits despite the company's guidance for acceleration into double digits. Guidance will be critical: any signs of strength or weakness are likely to move the stock meaningfully.
Price action has been volatile. The market dropped to fresh lows in early February and could potentially move lower, but by mid-month showed signs of indecision — possibly signaling a floor. If that floor holds, resistance lies near $195 and $225, with critical support around $180.
Marriott Vacations Worldwide: Insider Buying and Capital Return
Written by Thomas Hughes. Published: 2/9/2026.
Key Points
- Insider buying and sizable dividends highlight a capital-returns story more than a growth story.
- Weak analyst sentiment and elevated short interest remain key risks for the stock’s near-term performance.
- The shares are still in a downtrend, with the potential for another retest of prior lows.
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Marriott Vacations Worldwide (NYSE: VAC) is neither a high-flier nor a household name. Spun off from its parent Marriott International (NASDAQ: MAR) in 2011, the company focuses on resort management and timeshares. One noteworthy detail in early 2026 is that insiders continue to buy shares, which raises the question of why. Analysts are cautious and growth forecasts are tepid, so investors may be overlooking something — the question is whether that is enough for consumer discretionary investors to put money at risk.
VAC pays dividends and conducts share buybacks. Buybacks have trimmed the share count by a modest single-digit percentage as of the latest report and are expected to continue through year-end. Dividends are more notable, yielding roughly 5.8% in mid-February. The payout appears sustainable — under 50% of forecasted earnings — and the combination of buybacks and cash flow makes further distribution growth possible. While earnings growth is not expected to be robust over the next few years, a smaller share count lessens the per-share impact of payouts and can allow distribution increases without materially impairing the company's outlook.
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Data from InsiderTrades shows three purchases by executive vice president John D. Fitzgerald, extending a multi-year insider-buying trend. Although there has been some incremental selling, net insider activity has been broadly bullish for years, underscoring management's emphasis on capital returns. Marriott Vacations Worldwide may not be a fast-growth business, but its cash flow profile supports an aggressive capital-return program.
Institutions, Analysts, and Short Sellers Are Risks for VAC Investors
VAC investors face several risks, including limited market support and relatively high short interest. Analysts covering VAC assign it a consensus rating of Reduce. Analyst coverage has increased since last year, and the consensus has firmed, suggesting conviction. In mid-February the analyst consensus implied about 10% upside, but it has trended lower — nearly 50% down over the trailing 12 months — and recent forecasts point to roughly a 20% decline in the stock price.
Institutional ownership is somewhat more supportive: institutions own roughly 90% of outstanding shares and returned to net buying in Q4 2025 after selling in the first three quarters. That buying continued into Q1 2026, providing some market support, but it is tenuous and could reverse. Meanwhile, short sellers have been active, pushing short interest to nearly 10% as of late January — a headwind that could intensify later in the year.
Marriott Vacations Worldwide faces several headwinds in 2026, including softer demand, elevated leverage, and higher investment requirements. Key investor risks include narrowing margins, reduced capital returns, and execution risk, which will be important to long-term financial health. The company is also undergoing a CEO transition, which raises additional uncertainty. Potential catalysts would include a recovery in demand — perhaps driven by shifting consumer behavior or the success of marketing initiatives.
Marriott Vacations Worldwide Is in a Downtrend
VAC's stock may or may not have already bottomed, but it remained in a downtrend as of February 2026 and will likely retest its lows or establish new ones before a sustainable bottom is confirmed. The downtrend reflects weak sentiment, limited retail interest, and active shorting. In a downside scenario, VAC shares could fall toward the low-$40s (around $45) before finding durable support.
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