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Johnson & Johnson Quietly Triggers a Trend Following Buy Signal
Written by Thomas Hughes. Date Posted: 1/23/2026.
Article Highlights
- Johnson & Johnson pulled back into a trend-following entry after its Q4 2025 release and guidance update.
- Analysts and institutional trends support the stock's price action and point to new highs in 2026.
- Capital return and capital return growth are factors, with both reliable for the foreseeable future.
Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ), amid political noise — including Trump’s Greenland agenda — and renewed trade-war concerns, is quietly executing its healthcare strategy: growing revenue and widening margins. That sets the stock up to continue trending higher. A recent earnings release and updated 2026 guidance were strong but prompted a price pullback that created a trend-following buying opportunity.
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What is a trend-following signal? Assuming the trend is up, as it is with JNJ stock, a trend-following signal occurs when the price action retreats to an accepted trend-following indicator, such as a moving average or trend line, and then confirms support at that level. This affirms the presence of buyers and indicates high potential for a rebound while derisking the entry point. The likely outcome of such a signal is that the stock price will resume its steady advance and set fresh highs in the near term.
Johnson & Johnson’s Healthy Business and Pipeline Underpin Stock Price Action
Johnson & Johnson’s Q4 results highlighted the strength of its portfolio and pipeline. Revenue rose 9.1% year-over-year, about 200 basis points above expectations, driven by core strength in Innovative Medicine and Med Tech and aided by acquisitions. Organic sales grew 7.1% and adjusted growth was 6.1%; management expects to sustain a mid-single-digit pace in 2026.
Margins were a notable positive in the report and roughly in line with consensus. Adjusted earnings performed as expected and showed meaningful improvement from the prior year.
Adjusted earnings rose more than 20%, further strengthening the balance sheet and the company’s capital-return outlook.
Management’s guidance was constructive — and likely conservative. The company targets 6.7% revenue growth and margin improvement, with both targets above consensus.
Momentum in core segments (including blockbusters such as Darzalex) and ongoing pipeline advancement could enable the company to beat its own guidance in the next report.
Johnson & Johnson also reported positive results from several trials and submitted its OTTAVA robotic surgical system for De Novo classification. If approved, OTTAVA would open a new revenue stream with potential to grow at a high-double-digit rate for several years.
Johnson & Johnson Results Align With Bullish Analyst Trends
Johnson & Johnson’s bullish analyst trends appear likely to persist given the Q4 strength and outlook. Twenty-nine analysts tracked by MarketBeat rate the stock a Moderate Buy, and price targets have been rising.
The consensus price target implies the stock is fairly valued relative to the pre-release close, but the prevailing trend points toward the high end of the range — enough for roughly a 10% upside and a fresh all-time high.
Institutional investors accumulated shares in 2025 and early 2026, which helps limit downside risk should the stock pull back.
Johnson & Johnson’s dividend is another reason analysts and institutions favor the stock. The yield is about 2.5% even with shares near record highs, and the payout is expected to grow over time.
The company is a Dividend King, with more than 60 consecutive years of annual increases. A payout ratio near 50% suggests modest, single-digit dividend increases are sustainable for the foreseeable future.
Risks for JNJ shareholders in 2026 include ongoing talc litigation, competition from Stelara biosimilars, and execution risk tied to the expected OTTAVA launch. Talc litigation is moving forward; courts have allowed plaintiffs’ expert testimony, which presents a hurdle but also gives Johnson & Johnson the opportunity to refute those claims. Stelara lost patent protection in 2025 and will face increasing biosimilar competition as the year progresses — Stelara accounted for roughly 11.5% of 2024 revenue and its sales declined more than 40% in 2025.
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