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Thursday's Exclusive News

Defense Behemoths: Winners and Loser During Q4 Earnings Cycle

By Leo Miller. First Published: 2/2/2026.

Modern aircraft hangar with a stealth fighter jet beside a large aircraft fuselage section, aerospace defense setting.

Key Points

  • Defense stocks soared in 2025, and many of the industry's biggest players just reported their year-end results.
  • Northrop Grumman and RTX gained positive reactions from their releases, with shares and price targets rising.
  • Despite shares falling, analysts are still optimistic on General Dynamics.

A plethora of defense giants just reported their Q4 2025 earnings. The cycle produced some standout performances, as well as reports that left investors wanting more. Here are the most notable winners and losers from the latest round of defense earnings.

Winner: Northrop Grumman Sees Growth Accelerating in 2026

U.S. defense behemoth Northrop Grumman (NYSE: NOC) was a clear winner in its latest earnings report. Northrop is particularly known for building stealth bombers, like its B-2 Spirit craft. The company posted strong Q4 2025 earnings, released before the market's open on Jan. 27: revenue came in at $11.7 billion, up nearly 10% and beating estimates by more than $100 million, while adjusted earnings per share (EPS) rose approximately 13% to $7.23, comfortably above estimates of $6.97.

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In a positive sign for its outlook, Northrop expects revenue to grow in the mid-single-digit range in 2026, a notable acceleration after roughly 2% sales growth for the full year 2025. The results prompted optimism from investors and analysts alike—shares rose 2.7% on Jan. 27 and several analysts raised their forecasts.

The consensus price target on Northrop sits close to $689, near its Jan. 30 closing price. However, price targets published after earnings average about $762, implying meaningful upside of roughly 10%.

Winner: RTX Gains, Backlog Hits Record High

RTX (NYSE: RTX) also posted a strong quarter. Sales grew 12% to $24.2 billion, exceeding estimates by $1.6 billion. Adjusted EPS was essentially flat at $1.55, up less than 1%, but still ahead of the $1.47 analysts had expected.

Although RTX expects sales growth to moderate in 2026, it anticipates solid free cash flow growth of about 8% at the midpoint of guidance. A record backlog of $268 billion—roughly three times 2025 sales—provides significant revenue visibility for the coming years.

RTX also operates in the commercial aerospace market, where continued production growth in 2026 should support its Collins Aerospace and Pratt & Whitney businesses. Overall, the company's results produced a solid 3.7% gain on the day of its Jan. 27 pre-market release.

The current consensus price target near $199 implies about 1% downside. However, several analysts raised their targets after the results; those updated targets average roughly $223, implying about 11% upside.

Loser: General Dynamics Falls on Guidance, But Analysts Still See Solid Upside

On the other side of the coin, markets were underwhelmed by General Dynamics' (NYSE: GD) Q4 2025 earnings. Shares closed down 2.7% on the day of the company's Jan. 28 release, which was posted during market hours.

General Dynamics operates in areas many other aerospace and defense firms do not, including manufacturing and servicing Gulfstream business jets and building nuclear submarines.

The company's revenue grew 8% in the quarter to $14.4 billion, beating estimates of about $13.8 billion. EPS rose by less than 1% to $4.17, topping expectations of $4.11, which had implied a roughly 1% decline.

Guidance implies around 4% revenue growth in 2026, a slowdown from the 10% growth achieved in 2025. EPS growth is also expected to moderate to about 4% versus 13% last year. Still, the company exited the year with a record backlog of $118 billion—more than double 2025 revenue.

General Dynamics guided Aerospace operating margins near 14% for 2026, which falls short of its longer-term "high teens" target. Overall, the more conservative guidance was the primary reason for the market's negative reaction.

The consensus price target on General Dynamics sits near $372, implying about 6% upside. Despite the stock's decline, analysts raised their post-earnings targets; those updates average around $403, suggesting roughly 15% upside potential.

Defense Industry Eyes Catalyst in Potential Gov't Spending Boost

Looking ahead, the defense industry could get a significant tailwind from a proposed increase in U.S. government defense spending. President Trump has proposed boosting the defense budget to $1.5 trillion in the government's next fiscal year, a roughly 66% increase over the prior budget. That boost is far from guaranteed, however, because it would require congressional approval.


 

 
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