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Vertical Aerospace: Commercial Wins, Stock Price Lows
Author: Jeffrey Neal Johnson. Originally Published: 2/7/2026.
Article Highlights
- Vertical has secured major commercial agreements in India and Japan to expand its global footprint and validate commercial demand for its electric aircraft.
- Selecting a certified propulsion partner marks a critical step toward stabilizing the supply chain and de-risking the path to future certification.
- The company has expanded its flight-testing capacity by operating multiple active prototypes to accelerate development and meet critical engineering milestones.
February 2026 has presented a stark contradiction for investors in Vertical Aerospace (NYSE: EVTL). On the surface the company looks to be firing on all cylinders: in the first week of the month it announced major market entries in India and Japan, secured government grants in Singapore, and locked in a critical propulsion partner for its flagship aircraft.
Yet the market tells a different story. Vertical Aerospace's share price has retreated sharply, falling roughly 33% over the past month to trade near $4 as of Feb. 5.
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See the full story on this opportunity now.That divergence between operational momentum and market sentiment creates a confusing picture. Even as the company builds its order pipeline and solidifies its supply chain, Wall Street appears focused on two looming concerns: the company's capital structure and the timing of a critical flight test.
For investors, the key is deciding whether the price drop reflects a fundamental failure of the business or a temporary dislocation in which the stock has disconnected from the company's growing intrinsic value.
From India to Japan: Stacking Real Wins
While the stock chart flashes red, Vertical's commercial team has been delivering tangible progress across multiple markets. In early February the company announced agreements that do more than generate headlines — they validate global demand for its Valo aircraft across diverse regulatory environments.
Arguably the most important operational win was selecting Evolito as the supplier for the aircraft's Electric Propulsion Units (EPUs). Evolito, spun out of YASA (a company owned by Mercedes‑Benz Group (OTCMKTS: MBGYY)), holds a Design Organisation Approval from the UK Civil Aviation Authority (CAA).
For investors, that regulatory stamp is a significant de‑risking factor: it clears a path for the propulsion system — the heart of any electric aircraft — to be certified for commercial use, leveraging high-performance technology with an automotive pedigree.
At the same time, Vertical opened a major market by signing a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with JetSetGo in India. The agreement outlines the intended purchase of 50 Valo aircraft and a partnership to develop routes in one of the world's most populous countries — a market ideally suited to eVTOLs given urban congestion and infrastructure constraints.
In Japan, Vertical deepened its relationship with Marubeni. This partnership is backed by hard capital: Marubeni has made pre-delivery payments and the partners are accelerating plans for piloted demonstration flights in Osaka in 2026. Alongside a grant from HTX/Hatch in Singapore to develop Emergency Medical Services (EMS) capabilities, Vertical is showing that Valo has utility beyond tourism and can access stable public-sector revenue streams.
The Dilution Dilemma Explained
If the commercial news is so positive, why is the stock falling? The answer lies in corporate finance and the fear of dilution. On Jan. 20, 2026, Vertical held an Extraordinary General Meeting (EGM) where shareholders approved a large increase in authorized share capital, from 200 million to 1 billion ordinary shares.
To many existing shareholders, that authorization signals that significant equity issuance is likely. To fund the estimated $700 million net cost required to reach certification in 2028, the company will likely need to sell more stock. Issuing new shares dilutes current ownership, and the market is pricing in that potential overhang — including the possibility of shares being sold at a discount to raise cash — which pressures the share price in the short term.
There is a countervailing view: the authorization can also be seen as a necessary strategic war chest. In the capital‑intensive aerospace sector, running out of cash is an existential threat. By securing the ability to issue shares, management has removed the immediate risk of insolvency and ensured it has the tools to fund the roadmap through certification. While dilution is painful, survival is a prerequisite for creating long‑term value.
That dynamic has attracted short sellers: short interest has risen to roughly 20% of the public float. This crowded trade creates a high‑stakes scenario — if the company announces positive news that pushes the stock higher (for example, completion of the transition flight), short sellers may be forced to cover, potentially triggering a sharp rally in Vertical Aerospace's stock.
The Missing Catalyst: Silence on the Runway
The market is also waiting for a specific technical milestone. Vertical previously guided that its Phase 4 piloted transition flight campaign — when the aircraft shifts from vertical helicopter mode to wing‑borne airplane mode — would be completed in early 2026. That campaign began in November 2025, and the absence of a "mission accomplished" announcement has heightened investor nervousness; in the absence of news, markets often assume delays.
Operationally, the company has quietly improved its resilience. As of January 2026, Vertical has two full‑scale prototypes active in its testing program. That redundancy matters: a single mechanical issue can ground a program for weeks, but two aircraft allow the team to keep collecting data even if one unit is down, which can accelerate development.
While the silence on the transition flight likely contributes to the stock's weakness, it also sets up a binary catalyst. A successful announcement of that milestone would validate the engineering and could quickly reset market sentiment, refocusing attention on the company's commercial progress. Until then, the stock may remain in a holding pattern.
High Risk, Vertical Reward?
Vertical Aerospace currently has a market capitalization of roughly $406 million — a fraction of some peers — despite a comparable commercial order book and a certified engine partner. Wall Street analysts maintain an average price target near $11.80, implying significant upside from current levels if the company executes its plan.
The gap between today's share price and analyst expectations suggests a market waiting for proof. Investors must weigh the near‑certainty of future dilution against the sizable potential of a certified, commercially viable electric aircraft.
Vertical has built the commercial and supply‑chain infrastructure; now it must prove it can fund the journey and fly the aircraft. If the company can navigate its capital needs and deliver the transition flight, the current valuation disconnect could close rapidly. For now, the stock remains a battleground between commercial momentum and financial gravity.
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