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What to Watch for in Meta's Earnings: 2026 CapEx and AI Updates
Reported by Leo Miller. Published: 1/26/2026.
Quick Look
- Shares of Meta Platforms have struggled since its last earnings report in October 2025.
- The company's 2026 capital expenditure guidance will be among the most-watched metrics in its Jan. 28 release.
- Analysts continue to see considerable upside in shares despite investor trepidation.
In Q3 2025, Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META) reported results that disappointed investors, sending the shares down more than 11%. With the next report approaching, the Magnificent Seven company is again under close scrutiny.
Meta will report on Jan. 28 after the market closes. While investors will focus on Q4 2025 results, the stock's next move will likely depend on the company's guidance for 2026. Here are the key factors that will shape its outlook.
Analysts Project +20% Revenue Growth, Minimal EPS Increase
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Discover how to invest in the fund Trump uses to collect this income >>At a high level, investors will want Meta to meet or beat analyst expectations for revenue and adjusted earnings per share (EPS). Analysts currently expect revenue of $58.3 billion, roughly 20%–21% growth, and adjusted EPS of $8.16, about 2% growth. In the previous two quarters, Meta grew faster than these rates on both measures.
Meta is also expected to provide revenue guidance for Q1 2026; the company typically does not give full-year growth guidance. Analysts project $51.3 billion in sales for Q1, about 21% growth. Because revenue usually peaks in Q4 with holiday advertising, a sizable sequential decline from Q4 to Q1 would not be surprising.
The growth rates of ad impressions delivered and price paid per ad are two key metrics for assessing the health of Meta's advertising business. Growth near 10% or slightly above for both would be consistent with recent trends.
Expense Guidance Will Be Top of Mind
The most important number investors will likely focus on is Meta's capital expenditure (CapEx) guidance for 2026. In Q3 the company signaled it planned to meaningfully increase spending in 2026.
When Meta initially guided to $71 billion in CapEx for 2025, comments suggested that spending could rise to well over $100 billion in 2026. That implication alarmed markets, with many questioning whether past AI investments justify such a large spending jump.
Analysts expect Meta to provide a clear CapEx range. If the guidance comes in higher than market participants anticipate, it could trigger a significant downward reaction in the stock.
It is hard to predict whether that range will exceed expectations. The company has used aggressive rhetoric about its AI ambitions, including the Meta Compute announcement, which outlined plans to build tens of gigawatts of data-center capacity this decade. Meta has also signed new energy deals since the last report totaling 6.6 GW of capacity.
Those developments suggest CapEx guidance could exceed expectations. Investors may find some comfort, however, in the fact that Meta shares have already fallen more than 13% since the last earnings report, which could limit how much further the stock might decline.
Total expense guidance (excluding CapEx) will also matter. That range will help show how hiring AI-focused talent and other investments are affecting Meta's overall cost structure.
CTO Touts New AI Models as Analysts See ~27% Upside
Beyond the numbers, investors will be listening for updates on Meta's AI development. On Jan. 21 at the World Economic Forum, Meta's Chief Technology Officer Andrew Bosworth described the new AI models the company is using internally as "very good."
While Bosworth did not name them, sources indicate Meta is working on two new models codenamed Avocado and Mango. Highlighting progress on these models could boost investor optimism, particularly since the firm's LLaMA models have not consistently impressed the market.
Despite the recent share-price weakness, Wall Street analysts remain broadly confident. The consensus price target sits near $822, implying roughly 27% upside.
Meta is playing the long game with AI. Regardless of the market's immediate reaction to the upcoming earnings, investors will need to decide whether the company remains a compelling long-term investment.
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